Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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1751. brianc 2:17 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting caneswatch: LOL Never knew that. Chuckles the Clown's favorite statement which was shared at his memorial service...Mary Tyler Moore had a fit of hysterical laughter and then hysterical crying... Chuckles had been dressed up as a peanut in a parade and got crushed to death by an elephant. One of the great episodes of a great sitcom. Member Since: September 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

1753. CosmicEvents 2:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting presslord: In Jeff Masters defense....this is a pure market place of ideas...trying to manage the flow of thought here would be morally bankrupt...(short of profanity, racism, personal threats and attacks, etc.)... it's a much more vibrant, dynamic forum because they give such broad latitude... removed Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

1754. xcool 2:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1755. violetprofusion 2:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Hey, to all the seasoned stormwatchers out there--has this been a particularly unusual Atlantic season? I know it's a pretty active year, of course. But even though our models are getting better all the time, I have observed that the models are having some difficulty and uncertainty this year. Not sure if I remember that degree of weirdness in prior seasons, though it's entirely possible that my memory is failing me. What do you think, folks? Is 2011 kind of bizarre so far? Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

1756. mcluvincane 2:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting justalurker: got a question for you all. Are hurricanes good for the economy or bad? and do they create jobs? Great for the local economy and yes they create numerous jobs Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1757. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai: We're 3 behind 2005 for this date. Yes. - Maria - Nate - Ophelia However, it is interesting to note that there was an 11 day lull in tropical activity between Ophelia and Philippe. Considering we should have Maria from TD #14, and Nate from 96L over the coming days, all we will need is another random named storm to form by the middle/end of next week to be tied. We'll lose track with 2005 in late season, which is where 2005 got most of its activity. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25316

1758. jdjnola 2:20 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting xcool: Do not want. Please forward to Texas. Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 238

1759. DontAnnoyMe 2:20 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting EYEStoSEA: BINGO !! Hey DAM....I miss Grothar :( Hiya EYES! Yeah, I miss him too. I don't think anyone's heard anything today. Just out from under a tornado watch since 5 AM. Couple in the next county, minor damage. Still could be storms/flooding though. You OK after Lee? Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

1760. SPLbeater 2:20 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
until this blog gets back on track, i succumb to Need For Speed Hot Pursuit 2 for preoccupance. good day to you all Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954

1761. violet312s 2:21 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Lee, Lee go away. Come back another day. Had 3" this morning. Training storm now they are saying we will end up with ANOTHER 3-5" tonight. Skies just opened up and will not stop. Been about 90 mins non-stop. Glad I live on a hill in "Hope Valley" area of Durham. Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 779

1762. stormwatcherCI 2:21 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting hunkerdown: tracksa re the same cause it is the same storm...compare the two and you will see. Thanks. I see it. TD14 only has the addition of NHC. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1763. Hurricanes101 2:21 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
1749. rkay1 2:17 AM GMT on September 07, 2011 Talk about the pot calling the kettle. Do you not do just the opposite? Harp on the models when they shift north and then cast them aside when they shift west? You are no different than anyone else then. Oh wait yes you are, because 90% of the people on here who do what you say they do, actually back up their reasoning with factual information. You just come on here and blast everyone who has a different opinion then you. Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1764. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:21 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe: Hiya EYES! Yeah, I miss him too. I don't think anyone's heard anything today. Just out from under a tornado watch since 5 AM. Couple in the next county, minor damage. Still could be storms/flooding though. You OK after Lee? Didn't know you live in NC, hi buddy! lol. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25316

1765. Oct8 2:21 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting violetprofusion: Hey, to all the seasoned stormwatchers out there--has this been a particularly unusual Atlantic season? I know it's a pretty active year, of course. But even though our models are getting better all the time, I have observed that the models are having some difficulty and uncertainty this year. Not sure if I remember that degree of weirdness in prior seasons, though it's entirely possible that my memory is failing me. What do you think, folks? Is 2011 kind of bizarre so far? NHC nailed the path of Irene more or less. Not sure what uncertainty you are referring to. Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

1766. HurricanePookie 2:22 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Good Evening all. Glad to see that we've got some adults in the room this evening (TropicalAnalystwx13, WeatherNerdPR, I count you among them despite what I believe are your rather young ages, at least compared to mine). Dakster, normally I'd count you among them, but you appear to be under the influence, as it were, this evening ;) Sorry to hear that Grothar's not doing well, even though I'm mostly a lurker, I always enjoy reading his comments. Hopefully it's minor and he'll make a full and speedy recovery, although some stuff he has said on here leads me to worry that that might not be the case. Have been looking at some of the early models on 96L, showing it crossing Mexico. Interested in knowing if they are experiencing any of the same drought conditions Texas is, and if a small TC would be helpful to them, or mostly just cause flooding? Member Since: June 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 47

1767. stormwatcherCI 2:22 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Yes. - Maria - Nate - Ophelia However, it is interesting to note that there was an 11 day lull in tropical activity between Ophelia and Philippe. Considering we should have Maria from TD #14, and Nate from 96L over the coming days, all we will need is another random named storm to form by the middle/end of next week to be tied. We'll lose track with 2005 in late season, which is where 2005 got most of its activity. Weren't some models showing development of something in the Caribbean in about 9 days ? That would do it if it happens. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1768. presslord 2:23 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: removed I'm confused Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1769. GTcooliebai 2:23 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Yes. - Maria - Nate - Ophelia However, it is interesting to note that there was an 11 day lull in tropical activity between Ophelia and Philippe. Considering we should have Maria from TD #14, and Nate from 96L over the coming days, all we will need is another random named storm to form by the middle/end of next week to be tied. We'll lose track with 2005 in late season, which is where 2005 got most of its activity. Yeah, I revised it to include those 3 storms, do you think it will be as active in the 2nd half as the 1st? I mean it's a Neutral Year heading into a weak La Nina, if indeed it hasn't crossed that threshold already. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

1770. Dakster 2:24 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting justalurker: got a question for you all. Are hurricanes good for the economy or bad? and do they create jobs? IMHO and speaking on just an economic sense, they are initially good for the economy, but in the long term they change it and can even hurt some industries. For example, after Andrew south safe was changed. Many people moved and stayed in Broward or further north. Many contractors and builders came from out of state to rebuild safe. (some were bad and ripped people off but that is another topic). Since a large majority of people got new houses and roofs at the same time established businesses in Miami had a tough time staying in business years later. This is because it upset the normal, staggered roof and remodel cycle in the housing market. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

1771. justalurker 2:24 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting HurricanePookie: Good Evening all. Glad to see that we've got some adults in the room this evening (TropicalAnalystwx13, WeatherNerdPR, I count you among them despite what I believe are your rather young ages, at least compared to mine). Dakster, normally I'd count you among them, but you appear to be under the influence, as it were, this evening ;) Sorry to hear that Grothar's not doing well, even though I'm mostly a lurker, I always enjoy reading his comments. Hopefully it's minor and he'll make a full and speedy recovery, although some stuff he has said on here leads me to worry that that might not be the case. Have been looking at some of the early models on 96L, showing it crossing Mexico. Interested in knowing if they are experiencing any of the same drought conditions Texas is, and if a small TC would be helpful to them, or mostly just cause flooding? what about me? Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

1772. Oct8 2:24 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane: Great for the local economy and yes they create numerous jobs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broke n_window Destruction is not a net benefit to society when you calculate that money is not spent to create wealth but to restore destroyed wealth. Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

1773. luigi18 2:24 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai: She looks so pretty Maria Maria Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

1774. AussieStorm 2:24 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting justalurker: got a question for you all. Are hurricanes good for the economy or bad? and do they create jobs? Cyclone Yasi did $750million in Damage. we are still paying $10/kg for bananas. Some resorts are still closed, Hamilton Island which got part of Yasi's eye only reopened last month. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13351

1775. GeoffreyWPB 2:25 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Get better Gro... Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

1776. DontAnnoyMe 2:25 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Didn't know you live in NC, hi buddy! lol. Hi? Don't you mean - hey? Hello ;-) Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

1777. sunlinepr 2:26 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Seems like the new troll strategy is not to confront but to make believe they are rookies... The guy or guys behind this have changed their attack... What does NHC means? Is there wind in a hurricane? etc..... Good bodyboarding in La Punta, San Juan PR... Winds offshore tomorow... Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

1778. PakaSurvivor 2:26 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane: Great for the local economy and yes they create numerous jobs No. Asked the owners along the gulf coast how much business they lost this weekend. Also my favorite resturant in Niceville closed down after they rebuilt after Ivan but couldn't get their customers back. The answer is No! Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

1779. JNCali 2:26 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting justalurker: got a question for you all. Are hurricanes good for the economy or bad? and do they create jobs? Think that thought would be in line with wars building the economy... one persons misfortune is another's fortune.. we all for adding jobs but not becuase someone is flooded and blown away Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

1780. EYEStoSEA 2:27 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe: Hiya EYES! Yeah, I miss him too. I don't think anyone's heard anything today. Just out from under a tornado watch since 5 AM. Couple in the next county, minor damage. Still could be storms/flooding though. You OK after Lee? Well, didnt want to say anything, but we got 12 inches of rain in less than 24 hrs....too much.. and others needed it so much more....I know you need the rain, so hope you get some...the creeks are going down...most power and water back on...so all ok here...Thanks for asking...:) Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

1781. KoritheMan 2:27 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
I just wrote a blog entry on the tropics, the first one in days, if anyone wants to read it. I will check back later. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445

1782. GTcooliebai 2:27 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Looks like Lee in its early stage. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

1783. justalurker 2:28 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Dakster: IMHO and speaking on just an economic sense, they are initially good for the economy, but in the long term they change it and can even hurt some industries. For example, after Andrew south safe was changed. Many people moved and stayed in Broward or further north. Many contractors and builders came from out of state to rebuild safe. (some were bad and ripped people off but that is another topic). Since a large majority of people got new houses and roofs at the same time established businesses in Miami had a tough time staying in business years later. This is because it upset the normal, staggered roof and remodel cycle in the housing market. I agree, i'm in construction in florida, had most of the "foreign" contractors influx taking work from local businesses. In my business all it does is create headaches, ie..construction delays..so in my end i have to say it's bad for the economy Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

1784. RussianWinter 2:28 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Oct8: NHC nailed the path of Irene more or less. Not sure what uncertainty you are referring to. The uncertainty I think he could be talking about is the survival rate of a storm going off of Africa. I know two for sure, Emily and Don, it was like a roller coaster ride on whether or not they get upgraded. Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 648

1785. DontAnnoyMe 2:28 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting EYEStoSEA: Well, didnt want to say anything, but we got 12 inches of rain in less than 24 hrs....too much.. and others needed it so much more....I know you need the rain, so hope you get some...the creeks are going down...most power and water back on...so all ok here...Thanks for asking...:) Glad to hear it. Wish we could have sent some to TX. Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

1786. AussieStorm 2:29 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting HurricanePookie: Good Evening all. Glad to see that we've got some adults in the room this evening (TropicalAnalystwx13, WeatherNerdPR, I count you among them despite what I believe are your rather young ages, at least compared to mine). Dakster, normally I'd count you among them, but you appear to be under the influence, as it were, this evening ;) Sorry to hear that Grothar's not doing well, even though I'm mostly a lurker, I always enjoy reading his comments. Hopefully it's minor and he'll make a full and speedy recovery, although some stuff he has said on here leads me to worry that that might not be the case. Have been looking at some of the early models on 96L, showing it crossing Mexico. Interested in knowing if they are experiencing any of the same drought conditions Texas is, and if a small TC would be helpful to them, or mostly just cause flooding? May I ask how old are you, do you know how old other people here are? Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13351

1788. SLU 2:30 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Not too far away from MARIA. Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2851

1789. PakaSurvivor 2:30 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Anyone knows what ailing Grothar? I do pray it's not serious. Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

1790. hahaguy 2:30 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Dakster: IMHO and speaking on just an economic sense, they are initially good for the economy, but in the long term they change it and can even hurt some industries. For example, after Andrew south safe was changed. Many people moved and stayed in Broward or further north. Many contractors and builders came from out of state to rebuild safe. (some were bad and ripped people off but that is another topic). Since a large majority of people got new houses and roofs at the same time established businesses in Miami had a tough time staying in business years later. This is because it upset the normal, staggered roof and remodel cycle in the housing market. Also hurricanes create jobs. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

1791. wunderweatherman123 2:30 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
vote how many tropical storms will form a: september- im thinking maria nate and ophelia b: october- phillipe, rina sean, tammy c: november- vincent whitney Alpha 22 named storms im going with 8 hurricanes and 5 major Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

1792. Dakster 2:31 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Good night all! Hope Grothar is better and back soon. Keep an eye on those storms and the NHC honest. Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

1793. violet312s 2:31 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Ooh...going into the Gulf system... I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE KATIA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. 07/1700Z B. AFXXX 0212A KATIA C. 07/1330Z D. 30.5N 66.5W E. 07/1630Z TO 07/1930Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 A. 07/1800Z B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST C. 07/1500Z D. 20.5N 92.0W E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A SECOND MISSION INTO THE SUSPECT AREA AT 08/1800Z. 4. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF AT 07/1100Z. Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 779

1794. bappit 2:31 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting Dakster: Now that there's a funny joke... It's the drugs. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4381

1795. Hurricanes101 2:32 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai: Looks like Lee in its early stage. the tracks for Lee were much more all over the place, looping around, etc. this is mostly going NE towards FL and AL Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1796. HurricanePookie 2:32 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting justalurker: what about me? Well, if you have to ask.... ;) Seriously though, I enjoy the blog, in all its variety. Could do with less "trolls", and I'm somewhat perplexed by what it is about a weather blog of all things that seems to draw so many, but all in all, mostly a free exchange of ideas and knowledge, with some humor and camaraderie thrown in. A good break from my normal day. And while I don't take everything discussed here to heart, the discussions open my mind to the potentials earlier than any official forecast does. Member Since: June 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 47

1797. mcluvincane 2:32 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting PakaSurvivor: No. Asked the owners along the gulf coast how much business they lost this weekend. Also my favorite resturant in Niceville closed down after they rebuilt after Ivan but couldn't get their customers back. The answer is No! Your talking about one entity. I for one know for a fact it helps the LOCAL economy. I was a member of city council in Punta Gorda, FL after Charlie came through. Yes, it was tough at first but when all said and done, our buildings were brought up to code, our economy boomed a year after. Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1798. Oct8 2:32 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting RussianWinter: The uncertainty I think he could be talking about is the survival rate of a storm going off of Africa. I know two for sure, Emily and Don, it was like a roller coaster ride on whether or not they get upgraded. Well the way to determine certainty would be to determine the difference in the 3-5 forecasts for the storms from their paths, comparing year to year. That should be doable and I bet they have that data. But it is an academic thing. Some people may feel the NHC is good/bad but the real analysis would temper emotions. Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

1799. presslord 2:33 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
it's macro vs. micro economics...I could elaborate...but it's late...and you're already sleepy.... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1801. justalurker 2:34 AM GMT on September 07, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane: Your talking about one entity. I for one know for a fact it helps the LOCAL economy. I was a member of city council in Punta Gorda, FL after Charlie came through. Yes, it was tough at first but when all said and done, our buildings were brought up to code, our economy boomed a year after. yes, but you are not taking the current economic stature, when charlie came thru, it was different times!! Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

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