Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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401. AussieStorm 5:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Patrap: p25L is way down yonder Dude! It's almost as far south as me. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

402. JNCali 5:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Jeesh.. the heat being generated by the rapid expansion of my ignore list today is surely contributing to the warming of the atmosphere.... just can't win!? Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

403. Patrap 5:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

405. MissNadia 5:37 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
SE North Carolina has been put under a Tornado Watch until 9 PM tonight Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2692

406. Pirate999 5:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting JNCali: Jeesh.. the heat being generated by the rapid expansion of my ignore list today is surely contributing to the warming of the atmosphere.... just can't win!? +100 Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173

407. ScottLincoln 5:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Birthmark: Not true about the hazmat teams: http://www.snopes.com/medical/toxins/cfl.asp In any event, you can always go with LEDs. They are just beginning to be affordable --especially when you factor in their life time. There is much more mercury in fish than there is in CFL bulbs. And there will still be incandescent bulbs after 2012. Two more rumors/exaggerations that just refuse to die. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1763

408. Patrap 5:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Looks at the Heat in Texas on the Rainbow IR..sheesh Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

409. RitaEvac 5:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Texas has already been building LEED bldgs in cities across the state, going green has been in progress Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8949

410. muddertracker 5:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Frankly, I don't see how anything is going to develop into a significant storm with all that dry air in the gomex and Texas...but if the models say so... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2167

411. RitaEvac 5:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Patrap: Looks at the Heat in Texas on the Rainbow IR..sheesh Mainly because the ground is so dry it heats up much more easily therefore showing up pink on infared Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8949

412. will40 5:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
i have never used the minus feature as much as i have today Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

413. Patrap 5:41 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting muddertracker: Frankly, I don't see how anything is going to develop into a significant storm with all that dry air in the gomex and Texas...but if the models say so... That is going to Modify as the Heat in the GOM and the flow off Texas alone is gonna pucker that air up fast. Plus the inflow of the developing pouch is insulated from the Dry air. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

418. Patrap 5:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac: Mainly because the ground is so dry it heats up much more easily therefore showing up pink on infared Nutting gets past you Rita. Thanx for the Color. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

419. dogsgomoo 5:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Patrap: That is going to Modify as the Heat in the GOM and the flow off Texas alone is gonna pucker that air up fast. Plus the inflow of the developing pouch if insulated from the Dry air. Where do you feel that the dry air going to go (or, what is it going to do?) It's quite massive. Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

420. muddertracker 5:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Patrap: That is going to Modify as the Heat in the GOM and the flow off Texas alone is gonna pucker that air up fast. Plus the inflow of the developing pouch is insulated from the Dry air. Sounds good to me...I've had two fires within 5 miles of my house...hell, I admit it, I'm rooting for any kind of rainmaker right now. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2167

422. Patrap 5:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

423. AVL 5:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Flour bulbs make my skin look icky... Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

426. Patrap 5:45 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 442 am CDT Tuesday Sep 6 2011 Short term... 17 wow...is the only word that comes to mind as we have quickly moved from a tropical wet mess to cool dry air that is making things very comfortable. This air mass hangs around for several days. Highs will struggle getting into the lower 80s today and Wednesday. As we all know...sept can be just as hot as August. But this is a much needed break from the heat and humidity. A slow warming trend will take temperatures into the upper 80s again by the weekend and back to the 90s by next week. At some point we will have to acknowledge that another tropical system will be forming in the southern Gulf. This area is currently very unsettled and has the very southern end of a stalled cold front. All the ingredients are there for a disturbance to develop. The question is not if...but instead...once it does where does it go? Something should be showing up as early as Wednesday. After it develops...a slow drift to the north should ensue Thursday and Friday. This is where confidence begins to lower. The portfolio of global models are somewhat different in their solutions with the Euro taking the system near Pensacola by Sunday and the GFS taking it into Mexico. All models bring a strong short wave around the large scale upper low over the Ohio Valley causing a strong trough to once again dig and move southward. This is the weakness that most other guidance packs are showing breaking the ridge and pulling the system northward into the Gulf Coast. The interesting thing is that the GFS also shows this same weakness in the upper level pattern but builds the middle level ridge between the upper trough and the disturbance cutting off its northward progress. The reason for the models difference in placement of the system is timing. The GFS develops the system more slowly before moving it northward and therefore gives the Bermuda ridge time to develop back westward behind Katia and into the Gulf. The Euro develops it quicker and starts its northward journey sooner so that when the Bermuda ridge builds west it is too late. So as usual...timing will play a significant role in where this one ends up. The shorter the time the disturbance starts moving north...the more bets will be on a Euro solution. A little later and the GFS wins. Even later and none will get it right as the system would get pushed toward the SW into central Mexico. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

427. Neapolitan 5:45 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting will40: i have never used the minus feature as much as i have today That's fine--but just remember that every time you minus a post, you drive down both that commenter's "karma" and your own, as well. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11284

428. JLPR2 5:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
There we go, new little dot of convection closer to the center. Now... if it can grow we got something. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

429. atl134 5:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: You forgot to take out 30% for the collection and disbursement administration. And I don't mind if we talk AGW here. I've moved my tropical posting to the Climate Change blog. I did forget that though I don't think it'd be 30%; I won't hazard a guess at the actual percentage though since it depends on how large the tax itself is (the collection/disbursement costs should stay constant so the higher the carbon tax is, the lower the percentage that would go to c/d). Member Since: July 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

430. AussieStorm 5:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting JNCali: Jeesh.. the heat being generated by the rapid expansion of my ignore list today is surely contributing to the warming of the atmosphere.... just can't win!? Am I on your ignore list? Your not on mine. 1st night since Late March i have been able to sit and watch tv without wearing a jumper. Now 55.9°F and 1.8mm of rain since 9am yesterday Morning. Current time, 03:45 Wednesday 7th of September. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13764

431. GTcooliebai 5:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
000 ABNT20 KNHC 061745 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5432

432. Patrap 5:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
,,Karma's like that Randy" Earl Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

433. JLPR2 5:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Bam! XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

434. SPLbeater 5:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
about time those frickin hurricane hunters get out there...now we can be confident in what Katia is doing. not liking this bend towards thewest in latest movement but still sure Katia will turn north tomorrow Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3961

435. ncstorm 5:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: That's fine--but just remember that every time you minus a post, you drive down both that commenter's "karma" and your own, as well. I will take my chances.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8838

436. ScottLincoln 5:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting muddertracker: Frankly, I don't see how anything is going to develop into a significant storm with all that dry air in the gomex and Texas...but if the models say so... There has been some talk of that here at the office. Lots of dry air to push through, and we remember how that dry air affected Lee. Lee was able to hold his own, but was kept from strengthening much and rain bands ended up more broken and spotty. Now with substantially more dry air - deep dry air - in the Gulf of Mexico, I think it will take some time for a system to get going. After all the rain we just had, think that will be a good thing. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1763

437. Patrap 5:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112912

438. Chicklit 5:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
I have never seen the big black blotch on Water Vapor imagery. Can someone please explain what that is and whether they have ever seen one so large before? Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10379

441. ncstorm 5:51 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
CMC still the outlier with Katia Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8838

442. Levi32 5:51 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
000 URNT12 KNHC 061725 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122011 A. 06/16:55:00Z B. 27 deg 10 min N 066 deg 14 min W C. 700 mb 2768 m D. 66 kt E. 223 deg 36 nm F. 313 deg 85 kt G. 223 deg 40 nm H. 963 mb I. 12 C / 3047 m J. 16 C / 3045 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 0112A KATIA OB 04 MAX FL WIND 85 KT SW QUAD 16:43:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 17:11:00Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 220 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

443. WxLogic 5:52 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4720

445. Levi32 5:52 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Chicklit: I have never seen the big black blotch on Water Vapor imagery. Can someone please explain what that is and whether they have ever seen one so large before? It's simply that the air is so dry that it has fallen off the lower end of the water vapor enhancement color scale. I've seen it once before, but not quite as large as it was yesterday. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

446. jpsb 5:52 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
I see most of my posts have been replaced with *This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.* I really do not have a problem with that since this site is a pro AGW site and I mainly come here for info on hurricanes that might affect me. But since I wish to maintain my ability to post here I will from now on avoid the global warming debate, personally I think a healthy discussion on this or any other issue is a good thing. Evidently management does not agree, so yall win, not on the merits but by silencing my voice. Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

447. ncstorm 5:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32: 000 URNT12 KNHC 061725 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122011 A. 06/16:55:00Z B. 27 deg 10 min N 066 deg 14 min W C. 700 mb 2768 m D. 66 kt E. 223 deg 36 nm F. 313 deg 85 kt G. 223 deg 40 nm H. 963 mb I. 12 C / 3047 m J. 16 C / 3045 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 0112A KATIA OB 04 MAX FL WIND 85 KT SW QUAD 16:43:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 17:11:00Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 220 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR Levi, which model run will we see the new data from the HH? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8838

448. Pirate999 5:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting ncstorm: I will take my chances.. the corollary would be hitting plus a bunch of times would improve your karma... Back to the weather and off the political... Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173

449. bluheelrtx 5:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: And I don't mind if we talk AGW here. I've moved my tropical posting to the Climate Change blog. I think you forgot to close your sarcasm flag - it's spilling over into all the other posts. Member Since: November 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 220

450. RitaEvac 5:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Chicklit: I have never seen the big black blotch on Water Vapor imagery. Can someone please explain what that is and whether they have ever seen one so large before? It's the Dry Air of Doom Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8949

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