Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.
Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.
Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.
Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.
Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.
Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.
As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:
Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.
Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.
Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.
Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.
Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well gee thanks Rita ...like I already wasnt depressed enough! ...lol
Tell that to everyone who's been impacted by flooding from Irene and Lee. Let's see if you can convince them.
It only gets worse I'm afraid
Dry air inhibiting the development of storms. Particularly in the GOM.
I know, but there really isnt anything we can do about it ...I'm at a loss. I am looking forward to the next cool front once again. I'm tired of being scorched ..tired of smelling smoke, tired of seeing overworked firemen, tired of seeing water breaks and I'm most certainly tired of my high dollar electric bill!
Definitely. I wonder if we receive deep powerful blue northers this winter, that would have serious fire weather impacts with howling winds with dead/dry trees and brush ready to ignite. Then when winds die down, we plummet into the teens
I don't know if anyone knows this answer. Last La Nina (2008) wasn't as bad. The summer of 2009 had horrible high pressure over South Central Tex. (El Nino)
This summer: Tucson & the Southwest have gotten decent persistent rain.
Since Tucson is a desert I assume that would be plagued with high pressure, but not this summer.
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La Nina is not the end of the world and it is not the end of any rain chances.
What a lot of people fail to realize is that during times when temps are pleasant and cool the ground is still getting drier because of the dry air and low dewpoints and don't water. As the trees drop their leaves and the grass goes dormant and turns... the ground still needs to be getting water.
Yep, I've replaced several hoses this year already. Not to mention the sprinklers that keep breaking when I try to job them into the concrete coil. But that was my dumb mistake for getting the kind that stake.
in other words, more chance for development Grothar?
So the same weather for the past 7-8 months? Good to know.
Some people will always find something to disagree with, I have come to the conclusion that they spend the day looking for things that they think are wrong so they can Ah-ha! I agree that it has diminished the character of this blog over the long term -- but ignore works rather well.
It is interesting to see Katia affecting Ireland and Scotland. Katia was really a long tracking storm, having come from Cape Verde all the way back to Europe.
More like...
BREAKING NEWS!
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND DROUGHT
Soaker hoses are the only thing keeping my house from literally breaking in half. I can see by next spring there will be no water for soaker hoses, and barely any to drink.
We are scroomed!
nope, just not big enough to show up on satellite
Link
yes or stall and wait for another ridge
I disagree. It's exactly the same...blogger gets recognized by the masses, gets an inflated ego until another blogger challenges them....and then WHAMMO!!!! FLAMEOUT!!! I have heard the story 20x since 2005 and i bet 20x more in the next 6 years.
No one blogger is bigger than the community as a whole I guess. Congrats to those who participate and follow the rules of the road. I do miss destin jeff the most though.
strange seeing a frontal boundy below us in swfl! Link
Hopefully people pay attention and start removing some of the dead or near dead vegitation.
I just looked at the update and saw that, and she's moving at a snail's pace now. I jumped on here to see what people might be saying about that. A couple of people earlier were saying from what they were seeing, she was moving west, or west-northwest. That was around 9ish this morning, EST.
as long as she stays shallow that ridge is gonna have to come pretty far south to pick her up
Yes.
Okay, here is where I have problems understanding the weather ...you are showing us this coming Saturday right? So we will have lower pressure then? Does that mean that it will be easier for it to rain or just easier for any system to come this way (that is if there is one)
What causes the highs and lows to move around, up and down?
Thanks to whomever has the patience for this
you must be feeling better Gro. I see you are lifting that Globe much better
Thanks Grothar,I was afraid that is what you meant.
You don't have to wait until the blog is slow to ask a stupid question. I do it all the time.
i wondered where you have been scott. We all hope you the best and a good recovery
One globe at a time, will!!!
I have been telling my son about the ACE, can anybody let me know,1 what it stands at at present, more or less,2 what is average for this time of year and 3 what is the record maximum for a season.
Thanks a lot if anybody can supply that info for me I'll pass it on to him.
Weather here in the UK even got a bit of a mention on the national news tonight at the end.Its very blustery and a few branches off trees in my street, about 80MPH in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the stay cat that lives here,{the catcaster,} will not go out tonight so its a good sign that the gales are with us for the night.
OMG, poor baby. And here I am complaining. I am so sorry to hear this. Wish I could give you a hug (a mom hug). Wishing for a speedy recovery for you...take it easy
Good for you Gro
You're a mess! Just stay away from me. By the way, do you mean conjunctivitis instead of colitis of the eye?
I wonder why there is never any type of discussion on other scenarios...? If what you're saying is true, then I don't understand why the NHC doesn't talk about stuff like that. I think that would be pretty important info, ya know? I'm sure all of those models are very reliable, but what if they are not configuring in how shallow Maria is, or if the ridge does not come down far enough?
I read this blog to have a better understanding of what all the "swirly lines" are, and to understand what ull's, mll's, and all that stuff mean and what impact they can or will have on a storm.
good luck with that lol
I disagree. :)
LOL! Sorry that he is sick, but I honestly was thinking there was going to be a punch line after reading "colitis in my eyes."
LOL, are you serious, is this have a legitimate chance?
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