Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.
Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.
Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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um.... yes look on the SE side >.<
that just about matches to coordinates from ATCF 14.5 81.0
There's dry air, but 96L is still in a moist environment and is moving little.
You are correct and I corrected what I said. Take a look at the IR2 loop link I posted. Notice the clockwise movement? Anti-cyclone????
Partially exposed but beginning to cover up.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
An interesting Sunday ahead to see what develops for us
This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...
isn't that yesterdays map
oh ok
Link
Yes, as stated.
As for current environmental conditions this morning, wind shear values are running from 5 to 10 knots down near where the best vorticity lies to around 20 knots where the deepest convection is located. Given that the environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development and intensification this week, I see no reason why this wont become a tropical depression by late tonight or on Monday and then potentially a tropical storm once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. The model guidance continues to waffle on how much this will develop and there is frankly very little agreement among the model guidance regarding how much Invest 96L will develop
crownweather
14:00 is there normal time. I am happy to be corrected.
Myanmar flash floods kill more than 100—official
YANGON—More than 100 people were killed in flash floods caused by heavy storms in central Myanmar this week, an official in the military-dominated country said on Sunday.
“So far, 35 dead bodies were found out of 106 missing people. The other 71 people are also believed to have been killed in the floods,” a government official who did not want to be named told AFP.
“We haven’t found their bodies yet and are still searching.”
He added that more than 2,000 houses were swept away by the mass of water that hit four towns in the Magway region on Thursday and Friday, and some 6,000 homes were still flooded.
The official put the estimated damage from the disaster at around $1.7 million.
More than 1,500 people had sought refuge in two shelters in the flood-hit town of Pakokku, he added.
The state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper also mentioned the flood tragedy in its Sunday edition, but kept the toll to three dead and 80 missing.
Roads, bridges, monasteries and other buildings had been damaged by strong winds and heavy rains in the region but the waters had since receded, it added.
Local officials had started distributing relief aid to the flood victims, the paper said, including providing clean water “to avoid (an) outbreak of cholera.”
They were also “engaged in repair works for collapsed bridges and damaged roads,” the report said, adding that vehicular traffic in the affected areas had “returned to normal as floods subsided.”
A monk in Pakokku told AFP on Friday that the water level in a nearby river was believed to have risen to about three meters (10 feet) high after several days of torrential rain.
“Some people, animals, houses and a monastery were swept away when the water rose up,” he said at the time.
Another Pakokku resident, who did not want to give his name, told AFP on Sunday that locals had rallied “to donate water, food and clothes” to those affected by the flash floods.
“The water level is back to normal now,” he said. “Transportation is still difficult as the bridge was destroyed and most telephone lines are still down,” the man added.
Southeast Asia has been battered by particularly severe monsoon rains this year.
According to the United Nations, more than 750 people have been killed across Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and the Philippines.
Thailand has been particularly severely hit, with more than 350 people dead and tens of thousands of families sheltering in evacuation centres.
Flood waters have also reached the northern outskirts of low-lying Bangkok and the capital is anxiously bracing for worse to come as the government said the country’s flood crisis could go on for up to six more weeks.
yeah
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 14.6N 82.5W
E. 23/1830Z TO 23/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
A. 23/1900Z
3pm eastern, in the storm. take off in an hour and a half
The quake hit just north-east of the city of Van, where Anatolia news agency said at least 50 people were injured.
Link
Pulse look at the shear in the gulf the european developes a moderate ts before those strong winds rip it to shreads. Count on another increase in moisture across sfl later this upcoming week.
But we could have a T.D. on our hands. 96L looks to be pretty wrapped up at the lower levels.
I am not understanding why the NHC dropped the chances of development again
If you look, they have changed the percentages on the last 4 TWOs, to me that was not necessary. They should have just kept it around 60% then if they were going to go up and down like this.
To me this looks better than it ever has and we could have a depression when recon flies in today. Unless of course they cancel that too; which would not surprise me
Sounds pretty Dread, there.
Keep Safe.
I will scream if they cancel it, because there is a high, HIGH likelihood that we are dealing with a tropical depression right now.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT SUN 23 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-145
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 24/1445Z
D. 16.6N 82.4W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
You did get it up there. I slept in here and fiddled about on my blog before checking USGS.
Looks bad
In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).
Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.
Invest 97L is a real Sleeper currently....This could become a Major Cane in my opinion in the Caribbean. Wouldn't that be something in Late October or early November.
These next few days are gonna get rather interesting to say the least.
You haven't seen post 634? You dont have to scream.
X intvest 97L....its an Invest Now i do beleive.
They cancelled recon yesterday a little later than now, I believe.
ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.
Link
On todays TCPOD there is any remark of recon canceled as it occured with yesterdays TCPOD.
Sorry, maybe you are correct.....i seen it on other sites and just assumed it was.....thanks!
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