Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Down to 50%. They're thinking it will go into Central America.

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
LOCATED A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHOULD FORCE THE LOW TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL
AMERICA ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING...THIS SYSTEM
COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They didn't/haven't jumped the gun on either storm. There was a point when 95L was in the Yucatan Channel when it was very close to tropical depression status (when the NHC upped to red before recon), but it quickly became disorganized.

In the case of 96L, the ASCAT tells the story.

96L is nearing depression status IMO. LLC becoming better defined in each new frame.

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I think the NHc will probably keep it 60% or drop it no lower than 50%, but could even bump it up it to 70% again, JMO
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think hurricane season is overe



they jump the gun with 95L and now there jumping the gun with 96L watch and see

They didn't/haven't jumped the gun on either storm. There was a point when 95L was in the Yucatan Channel when it was very close to tropical depression status (when the NHC upped to red before recon), but it quickly became disorganized.

In the case of 96L, the ASCAT tells the story.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
What's going on here?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Don't be mistaken 96L is slowly but surely getting its act together and could be a significant threat to the NW Caribbean, W Cuba, Keys & South Florida and even the NW Bahamas in the next few days, just my opinion.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
What you think WeatherNerd circulation on the edge of the convection?

Yup.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Its easy to be 10 feet tall and bullet proof on a blog. I used to engage in petty arguments on here and then realized that it isnt worth it. Bloggers need to think before they post something and they also need to think before they respond. Take this or leave it. Have a nice day! :)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What you think WeatherNerd circulation on the edge of the convection?
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97L
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
i think hurricane season is overe



they jump the gun with 95L and now there jumping the gun with 96L watch and see
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


That satellite shows the circulation exposed just ENE of the present coordinates and coincides with what the ascat shows!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While 96L's convective pattern has become slightly less organized since yesterday, its low pressure area has certainly became a lot more defined..I've noticed this season that the low pressure center usually counts more than the convective pattern, so I am going to go out on a limb and say that 96L is very nearly a tropical depression at this time. The NHC will probably keep 60% at the 2PM TWO, or maybe up it slightly to 70% based on the ASCAT pass, but I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon.

It will be interesting to see if convection develops over the low, or if the low moves towards the convection.

Yeah I really wish they would've flown into 96L as scheduled, I mean if they can fly into 95L a disorganized, sheared mess, why can't they fly into 96L?
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Quoting wn1995:


Because your sarcastic comment wasn't mistakable, and there was a chance that he/she made an honest mistake.





can you guys take this else where plzs this is a weather blog plzs take this too your own blog
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Quoting stormpetrol:


These west winds would suggest a circulation around 13N/81W


Yep I would say so. Interesting to see what the next TWO says.
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Quoting chrisdscane:



just stop argueing and look at this this will tell u the story


You see me arguing, you must be mistaken me for someone else, I just post graphics that suggest facts , not what satellite suggest as that can be deceiving, take your picking somewhere else, if that's what you intended!!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


does that mean you are leaving the blog? *crosses fingers*




you been reported that was really un necessary commet
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


He/She seems pretty adamant about it, guess it could have been an honest mistake

Just trying to have some perspective. You are basically saying my sarcastic comment was worse than putting out false information. I don't really get that.


Because your sarcastic comment wasn't mistakable, and there was a chance that he/she made an honest mistake.
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Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
96L hasn't moved much at all. It's drifting, and it is VERY difficult to pin down a specific direction of movement looking at VIS satellite imagery. If you look at the steering setup it's very complicated (weak steering currents) like KMAN said last night. I wouldn't expect much movement for at least the next 24 hours:

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Quoting stormpetrol:


These west winds would suggest a circulation around 13N/81W


that about sums it up doesn't it? This low I do not believe was closed before this, so I could see the NHC bringing the odds back up
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
Quoting stormpetrol:



just stop argueing and look at this this will tell u the story
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065
Quoting wn1995:


Maybe it was an honest mistake, lol!

I'm just not sure anymore. I'll keep my mouth shut when people argue or whatever and just talk weather. Like we all should.


He/She seems pretty adamant about it, guess it could have been an honest mistake

Just trying to have some perspective. You are basically saying my sarcastic comment was worse than putting out false information. I don't really get that.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367


These west winds would suggest a circulation around 13N/81W
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol you are kidding right?

So saying 96L is toast and then making false statements about how the cimss shear maps shows no anti-cyclone and that shear is increasing is ok then?



Maybe it was an honest mistake, lol!

I'm just not sure anymore. I'll keep my mouth shut when people argue or whatever and just talk weather. Like we all should.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


does that mean you are leaving the blog? *crosses fingers*


Really? A person makes a statement, true or not true and you have to post a comment like that?
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Quoting luvtogolf:



Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 12.8 81.7W — Movement: W
Since when did Invests have a LLC to track? LOL Maybe a surface circulation which is broad, not a defined center which hypothetically would make it a tropical depression :-P
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wn1995:


It is no reason to resort to that.

Jeez, if you disagree with something, ignore it, or nicely say you disagree.

I don't see why people on this blog can't respect other people's opinions.


lol you are kidding right?

So saying 96L is toast and then making false statements about how the cimss shear maps shows no anti-cyclone and that shear is increasing is ok then?

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
The actual circulation of 96L a starting a slow northward drift IMO.
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Tropical Atlantic has 96L moving WNW or 282 degrees at 6mph.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It sure was

just like people who jump on here and say that this system is toast without anything to back it up

shear is increasing? does not mean it will kill the system off completely

The reason so many have left this blog is because of the inability of many (not including people like you, Levi, kman, Drak, Cyberteddy and a few others) to be patient and actually analyze the system and what is going on around it without jumping to conclusions



It is no reason to resort to that.

Jeez, if you disagree with something, ignore it, or nicely say you disagree.

I don't see why people on this blog can't respect other people's opinions.
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Very little chance in my opinion it gets picked up by the strong frontal boundary next week. Likely bury itself into CA as the 12z models seem to be indicating.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
I meant Hurricane123...sorry Hurricane101

Quoting portcharlotte:
I agree..comments such as Hurricane101, Robert88 and so forth have very little objective value but just trying to agravate those who can read the data. These people should find another blog


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It may prove that dry air currently affecting 96L not being so much of a hindrance, looks to be pulling some moisture across Costa Rica & Panama to the south, where the Ithmus is narrow
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 632
I agree..comments such as Hurricane101, Robert88 and so forth have very little objective value but just trying to agravate those who can read the data. These people should find another blog


Quoting Hurricanes101:




What exactly do you call that by Nicaragua? I would say that is an anticyclone



Also shear tendency does not show it as increasing
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

dude put on ya glasses if ya can't see vis and rgb the LLCOC is movin NNE-NE



Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 12.8 81.7W — Movement: W
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
looks at the sims wind shear. there is no anticylone and shear is increasing


I am assume sims means CIMSS, so here are the windshear map and the tendency map from there

What exactly do you call that by Nicaragua? I would say that is an anticyclone



Also shear tendency does not show it as increasing



Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you get that?
looks at the sims wind shear. there is no anticylone and shear is increasing
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Quoting robert88:
96L looks stationary to me...maybe drifting slightly NNW now. The convection getting pulled in from the S is an illusion to that NNE movement.

no no no no look at the vis and rgb and look at those LL clouds you will find the COC and you will see in the loop it is moving NNE-NE the Center is at 13.1N 81.0W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was that really necessary?


It sure was

just like people who jump on here and say that this system is toast without anything to back it up

shear is increasing? does not mean it will kill the system off completely

The reason so many have left this blog is because of the inability of many (not including people like you, Levi, kman, Drak, Cyberteddy and a few others) to be patient and actually analyze the system and what is going on around it without jumping to conclusions

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
RGB shows N-NNW...No E component. Only look at the center.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting eddwin88:
Just don't tell me 96L is going to affect El Salvador again; The sun finally appeared on thursday after 12 days of absence (scary, unless you're british).

There is this town southwest of San Salvador in La Cordillera Del Balsamo (a mountain range that is basically a shield for San Salvador) called Comasagua, the rain was so heavy, that on Tuesday night the water was coming out of the ground, and the people where hearing noises below the ground, it was an underground river eating away everything; The government took a very bold action and evacuated all 800 people in the middle of the night, with roads heavy damaged and landslides everywhere.

In the morning, they found this: http://youtu.be/1jHZogY8EF0





My condolenses to all over there and hopefully,that country comes out from this stronger than before. Glad the sun came out there as that will help the cleanup to be more faster.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
I read a post of Dr. Masters this season and found out about vertical instability for the first time. You HAVE to have the right amount of vertical instability for a TC to develope, and to continue to stay healthy and become stronger. 96L doesnt have it! This seems to be the common denominator with the TCs this season.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting luvtogolf:


Respectfully disagree. Then why did the NHC cancel the recon flights? Are they wrong too?


The recon flight was cancelled this morning

Are you saying ASCAT is wrong?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
Quoting jrweatherman:


Everytime you post you say 96L is moving NNE. It has barley moved at all, if anything a little south or southwest

dude put on ya glasses if ya can't see vis and rgb the LLCOC is movin NNE-NE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, he was wrong.


Respectfully disagree. Then why did the NHC cancel the recon flights? Are they wrong too?
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96L looks stationary to me...maybe drifting slightly NNW now. The convection getting pulled in from the S is an illusion to that NNE movement.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting Hurricanes101:


does that mean you are leaving the blog? *crosses fingers*

Was that really necessary?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Just don't tell me 96L is going to affect El Salvador again; The sun finally appeared on thursday after 12 days of absence (scary, unless you're british).

There is this town southwest of San Salvador in La Cordillera Del Balsamo (a mountain range that is basically a shield for San Salvador) called Comasagua, the rain was so heavy, that on Tuesday night the water was coming out of the ground, and the people where hearing noises below the ground, it was an underground river eating away everything; The government took a very bold action and evacuated all 800 people in the middle of the night, with roads heavy damaged and landslides everywhere.

In the morning, they found this: http://youtu.be/1jHZogY8EF0



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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
96L is a gonner. shear is picking up which was unexpected...

Where do you get that?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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