Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting E46Pilot:
A Mediterranean storm? Has this ever happened before?

Link

Activity for January 2009: Hybrid Storm

Mediterranean Hybrid Storm
--------------------------

An interesting hybrid storm system was operating east of northern Sicily and west of the "foot" of the Italian Peninsula in late January. The system displayed a nice "eye-like" feature. A weather station on the north coast of Sicily recorded sustained winds of 35 kts on 28 January. Also, a QuikScat pass revealed some 30-35 kt wind vectors.

The GFS and UKMET phase spaces depicted the system with some warm-core characteristics. SSTs at the time were about 15 C (59 F). That's about all the information I have at the moment. I do have some imagery of the LOW, but have been unable to locate any active links with satellite imagery.

Quoting E46Pilot:
A Mediterranean storm? Has this ever happened before?

According to one study, about once per year. However, as Dr. Masters noted yesterday, AGW will likely make the Mediterranean more susceptible to tropical cyclones, up to and including hurricanes.

this isn't the first we've seen a mediterranean storm this strong. There was a hurricane type system a while back, if you want details just look up south atlantic tropical cyclones, click on the wiki result, and in wikipedia search for unusual cyclone formations. it has Lake Huron Hurricane, and the mediterranean cane.
seems to me the tropics have came alive once again. STS Sean, TC# 24, 01c, and M01/Rolf

Quoting capelookout:
Those people on Cayman from Paloma on this date should be thanking there lucky stars. Had that storm made landfall about 30 miles south of that island, the effects would have been devastating. Getting hit on the clean side of the storm makes all the difference when it comes to storm surge height and fury. Could have been much, much worse.

Great rainbow infrared image though...

You are joking, right ? Only Grand Cayman received the "clean" side of the storm. The Cayman Islands is 3 islands. Little Cayman which is the smallest received a direct hit from her and Cayman Brac had monumental damage from Paloma. Thank our lucky stars we had no deaths but as far as damages we were far from being lucky.

did u guys see that there could be a strong cold front that it will make it 2 the mid 30 in jacksonville

Quoting capelookout:

Great post. Nice links and information. However, that is of course if the theory of global warming (climate change) is projected to begin occurring in the next 20-40 as theorized. The vast majority of scientists are beginning to back off the theory to some degree though recently.

don't worry blog, i'll use my ignore feature after this... but seriously kind blogger, that is not an educated statement considering A). the trend of warming is underway and known, despite controversy over causation, B). i know of no study or report that claims climate shifting will not begin until 20-40yrs from now, and C). there is no 'vast majority of scientists' backing off the "known" warming trends, nor the theory that AGW is the culprit.
ok, using blog tools now... just had to lay out some retort before the poof

i am still counting on another storm this season :D

STS sean looks good

Actually i just found, there has been 14 occasions that this has occurred since the 80's. 4 made it to Hurricane status.
3 storms reported in the basin in 1996, and 2003 as well. 2005 had 2. Italy/Sicily were the main land area to get hit, italy is like the florida of the mediterranean. personally if the trend continues in the mediterranean and in the South atlantic, we need to make tracking basins. South atlantic season January to Mid April, and mediterranean from Mid August to December

Winds near hurricane force of 74 mph were expected to generate seas as high as 25 feet in the northern Bering Sea, forecasters said. The winds were expected to raise sea levels as much as 9 feet in the Norton Sound. Those levels combined with the high waves were expected to cause significant coastal erosion and major flooding. The winds may also push sea ice on shore, adding to the dangers, NWS forecasters said.

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

Many lines of scientific evidence show that the climate is changing and has changed in perpetuity from the birth of the planet.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 To Narrowly Miss Earth (PHOTOS, VIDEO)





An asteroid a quarter-mile-wide will, astronomically speaking, narrowly miss Earth next week.

And while it is the closest an asteroid this size has come to the home planet since 1976, there's no need to call Bruce Willis ... yet.

"There is no chance that this object will collide with the Earth or moon," Don Yeomans, the manager of NASA's Near Earth Object Program office, told Reuters.

But that doesn't mean the asteroid -- named 2005 YU55 -- won't be a threat to earth in the future.

Lance Benner, a research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a video from NASA (available below) that scientists haven't been able to reliably compute the asteroid's path beyond a couple of hundred years from now.

At its closest point, the space rock will be about 201,700 miles (324,600 kilometers) away, which is 0.85 the distance between the moon and the Earth. NASA says that the asteroid will reach this point at 6:28 p.m. EST on Tuesday.

"In effect, it'll be moving straight at us from one direction, and then go whizzing by straight away from us in the other direction," Benner said.

An asteroid this size -- which, according to Scientific American is larger than an aircraft carrier -- would cause widespread damage if it were to hit Earth, however. The Associated Press spoke to Jay Melosh, a professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Purdue University, who said that the asteroid would create a four-mile wide crater 1,700 feet deep. It could cause 70-foot tsunami waves and shake the ground like a magnitude-7 earthquake.

Even though the asteroid will be inside the orbit of the moon, NASA said that the space rock's gravitational pull shouldn't have any "detectable effect" on Earth's tectonic plates or tides.

Yeomans told HuffPost that the flyby will give astronomers a great view of 2005 YU55 and is an opportunity to do research into the asteroid's composition. He said that it's a C-Type asteroid, which means it contains carbon-based minerals which could potentially be used in future space exploration.

"These objects are important for science ... they're potential resources for raw materials in space that we may wish to take advantage of some day," he said.

The New York Times reported last month on proposed fuel stations in space that one study says could put astronauts on

can u ppl here me

Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.

800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations
Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm).

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.

In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.

388.92ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for October 2011
Preliminary data released November 4, 2011
(Mauna Loa Observatory: Scripps Institution of Oceanography)


co2 now.org

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 8 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression ARB03-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 14.0N 59.0E, or about 1700 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India) 570 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 620 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards initially and then westwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over south central Arabian Sea. Dvorak intensity of system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over west Arabian Sea between 10.5N to 20.0N and 55.0E to 62.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -77C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 6. The phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-30C. The ocean heat content is less (<50kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed significantly in past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N. Most of the models shows intensification during next 24 hours then gradual weakening after 48 hours. The models suggest initial west northwest/northwestward movement during the next 36 hours and then southwestward movement towards the Gulf of Aden.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.5N 58.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm'
36 HRS: 15.0N 56.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
58 HRS: 15.0N 53.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Has anyone heard from Levi and his thoughts on the Storm about to hit Alaska? It looks to be worse than any hurricane we had this year!

Anyone having trouble with any NOAA sites? (i.e. NHC, Satellite Services Division, etc.)

Interesting that the BEST data (or any data for that matter) shows basically a flat line for the past 13 years. We'll see how 2011 comes in.

And, too many forget that all of the predictions are from the year 2000. So far, it is not validating from that year forward but, as I have said before, still need more observations from 2000 to say it is a blown forecast or not.

All of the predictions are from 2000. Anything prior to that is a "post-diction." That is very easy to be correct on. :)

My forecast is flat-line for about the next 30-40 years.

When we get to 2020, then 2030 and it is still a flat line? I'd say it's a busted forecast. For whatever reason. Most likely placing too much weight on certain forcings, would be my guess.

** WTNT34 KNHC 081442 ***
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 69.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 380 MILES...610 KM...PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

Quoting Bergeron:
Anyone having trouble with any NOAA sites? (i.e. NHC, Satellite Services Division, etc.)

Yeah, it's down.

No problems on Chrome with the NHC Satellite page

www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite

Im afraid you have a problem I cant help u with sport.

Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change


Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate


Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

NHC site is down along with all NOAA sites. What's going on?

edit: did my ignore feature just get smarter or did things clean up around here :P

Quoting ITCZmike:

Sure. Dodge the question and insult others...

Typical.

Hey, why don't you share with the rest of us those nasty emails you have been relentlessly sending me. Don't worry, if you haven't heard from admin yet, you will.

Feel free to post them fictitious ones here.

I dont kinder to lies, nor threats.

Quoting Bergeron:
Anyone having trouble with any NOAA sites? (i.e. NHC, Satellite Services Division, etc.)

Yes, my browser isn't loading the NHC site

Quoting 12george1:

Yes, my browser isn't loading the NHC site

I'm getting redirected.

I've tried FireFox, IE, & Google Chrome.

NHC site is fine in GOOGLE CHROME.

www.nhc.noaa.gov


Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espanol*)
700 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2011 Tropical Weather Discussion
705 AM EDT MON NOV 08 2011
Subtropical Storm SEAN Storm Archive
...SEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

Quoting Bergeron:
Anyone having trouble with any NOAA sites? (i.e. NHC, Satellite Services Division, etc.)

Yeah when I try to pull up the NHC site it sends me to an openDNS search engine or something.

Quoting Patrap:
NHC site is fine in GOOGLE CHROME.

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Ok thanks working now.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Something is up! I don't feel comfrontable about what is happening....been watching shakers for about 4 years now....seems when quakes this size releases stress in that location but, puts stress somewhere else that will need to pop soon.

I at least one study was done on this hypothesis in the middle east and it may have yielded some slight predictability to earthquakes. Apparently a group of scientists had some slight skill in predicting where the stresses from quakes would move along various fault lines and where that stress would accumulate, which sometimes indicated a rough location/magnitude of the next quake. Not remembering well where I heard/read this information.

Psst--don't anyone tell Sybil, the multi-handled troll, but Dr. Masters has posted a new blog entry.

532. Patrap

We'll find out if the models validate beyond 2000... because it certainly hasn't followed that trend line.

Great validation of my point. The models are set to the past observed data, so we have to see if they validates beyond that. Just because they are set up to match past observations is no guarantee they will validate in the future. Mainly because that blue line is speculative and NOT based on obs. The pink is, I am sure. If that blue is not an accurate representation of natural only forcings, then it will most likely not validate. If it is, then it will. But one would have to believe that there is zero natural warming at all. I find that hard to believe given the historical record. And, that graph even says cooling would be going on if natural only. Quite an assumption.

Again, we'll find out, but I still lean towards that assumption being incorrect. We will find out.

And, we continue on the AR4 "worst case" scenario, so the predictions are quite extreme.

I'll wait until the obs actually fit the forecast. So far, they aren't.

Again, doesn't mean the obs won't validate the models, but they haven't yet.

Quoting Seastep:
Interesting that the BEST data (or any data for that matter) shows basically a flat line for the past 13 years. We'll see how 2011 comes in.

And, too many forget that all of the predictions are from the year 2000. So far, it is not validating from that year forward but, as I have said before, still need more observations from 2000 to say it is a blown forecast or not.

All of the predictions are from 2000. Anything prior to that is a "post-diction." That is very easy to be correct on. :)

My forecast is flat-line for about the next 30-40 years.

When we get to 2020, then 2030 and it is still a flat line? I'd say it's a busted forecast. For whatever reason. Most likely placing too much weight on certain forcings, would be my guess.

Of course, cherry-picking a very warm year (1998) is more than a tad dishonest. The thing is, if the temp is gonna "flat-line for about the next 30-40 years", it best get started, because so far it ain't happening:

Quoting Seastep:
Interesting that the BEST data (or any data for that matter) shows basically a flat line for the past 13 years.

Which is not particularly relevant when it comes to climate and climate change. But even if it were, the last decade was the warmest on record, beating the 1990s - thus saying that there has been "no warming in 13yrs" is not a correct statement. It has been found through scientific study that you need 15-20yrs of data to be able to establish the long term trend from data that includes natural variability. The BEST data is also land only; oceans cover the majority of the planet's surface and store massively larger amounts of heat energy.

Quoting Seastep:
And, too many forget that all of the predictions are from the year 2000. So far, it is not validating from that year forward but, as I have said before, still need more observations from 2000 to say it is a blown forecast or not.

You start by saying it isn't validated, then you say you need more information. Let's stick with the later. You cannot validate a climate forecast over a period of 10 years. Predictions were not meant to be down-scaled to a yearly timestep, doing so suggests a lack of knowledge in what climate change means, or an attempt to distort. And no, not all climate projections are from the year 2000 - predictions of warming due to the physical properties of greenhouse gases have been made for many decades.

Quoting Seastep:
My forecast is flat-line for about the next 30-40 years. When we get to 2020, then 2030 and it is still a flat line? I'd say it's a busted forecast.... Most likely placing too much weight on certain forcings, would be my guess.

That would be a more realistic way to test the theory than trying to look at a trend over a 10 year period (since 2000). If the average temperature of the 2030-2039 decade ends up being not warmer than the present decade (with no major volcanic/solar wildcards), then many climate scientists would be scratching their heads.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Of course, cherry-picking a very warm year (1998) is more than a tad dishonest. The thing is, if the temp is gonna "flat-line for about the next 30-40 years", it best get started, because so far it ain't happening:

It's been referred to as "going up the downward escalator" - You could add a dozen downward trends together and still get one long upward trend that is following what the climate model consensus has predicted and remains statistically-significant.