A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:
...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0
...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2
...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0
...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0
...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0
...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1
...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0
And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:
...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23
...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75
Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.
The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.
Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.
The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.
It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.
Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.
Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway.
The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
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Ike! i MEAN IKE! was a major hurricane. No, it did not rate a 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale but the damage it did was more than Wilma.
Igor didn't hit the United States.
You mean Irene? :P
Well, it was designed for "Wind Loading on structure's" and is very POOR indicator of Surge and other "impact" criteria.
Saw some beautiful images of Igor earlier today. Just got Igor on my mind. Meant Ike.
In all honesty, Ike was probably a major hurricane at landfall. If it wasn't, it was as close to being a major hurricane while not actually being one as you can get.
Third most destructive hurricane for U.S. behind Katrina and Andrew. Took Wilma's spot on the ranking. Galveston was very lucky it turned more north when it did.
Looking ragged now, but as it moves away from the coast, it will strengthen significantly and likely become one of the strongest cyclones we'll see in 2012.
Yes, near peak intensity as well.
Arrow down to around day 11-15 and it looks promising for a snowy and cold winter across much of the USA.
Link
Volente? Lago Vista? Volente here, and I think winter is over.
Bugs are gonna be bad.
Nature, confused, will continue to rebel.
And Andrew too, according to official reports.
At least the strongest one we've seen so far in 2012.
If them there Mayan's are right, the Cat 5s should be popping up soon in our hemisphere. (Kidding, of course)
Also, do you know where I can get any links such as satellite to watch Funso? And models? Would love to write my first tropical weather blog for 2012, as for whatever reason during post season, storms in the South Indian ocean, especially off Africa's east coast, interest me the most.
Southern Hemisphere
SH072012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) ETHEL
SH082012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) FUNSO
Sounds like one of the Marx brothers.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
9:00 AM FST January 21 2012
=================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1004 hPa) located at 15.0S 180.0 is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared/visible and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.
Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. TD 06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, under 250 HPA ridge and east of upper trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.
Most models have picked the system and slowly move it southeast with slight intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cylone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Are you sitting up straight, young man? ... Grocho called and wants his iconic walk back. ;-)
Hope you get sleet, nothing sissy about ice.
Nope. I am hunched over the computer with my little shawl, wondering who comes up with these names for tropical storms. Funso and Ethel. Come on now, it sounds as a vaudeville act.
winter 2006-2007 we didn't get our first 0.5 inch snowfall until january 31st, which gave us 1.0" for the season (16" below normal) ...Started '07 with highs in the 60s- topped 70 one day.
Then we ended up with an 11 inch storm on valentines day and a 16 inch storm on St. Patricks day.
(Hudson valley, New York)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.1S 37.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/6 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center
Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 to 70 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 38.2E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 38.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.6S 40.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
Additional Information
======================
Still some doubt about the current strength of the system. Some infrared imagery before 0:00 AM UTC show an intermittent ragged eye pattern with very cold cloud top so in line with ADT and microwave imagery that depicts a wider eye pattern than previously (although a weakness may exist in the southern eyewall), the previous intensity is maintained.
Latest available numerical weather prediction models suggest now that the system is now embedded within contradictory steering flow. They all agree to not take again significantly the system westwards. As the subtropical ridge weakens southwards, the movement of Funso should resume today on a east to southeastwards component under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system
On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the southeast of the system and will result on a polewards motion for the system. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a new zonal track towards that should bring the system over the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane. An alternate scenario, suggest by the ECMWF ensemble forecast could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the southeast of the system and a continuing polewards track at long range that will remain oversea.
As long as the system move little, the weakening of the oceanic energetic potential and potentially on going inner core process are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. With the resume of the movement, the system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly. Ocean heat content map suggest that the system could move over very warm water around 20.0S. The ocean heat content should be lower after that if the system moves closer to the Mozambican coasts as expected. Therefore, the peak intensity is sooner and a little bit lower than the previous forecast in agreement or just above the guidance.
Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast at short range. However with the actual growing trend of the inner core seen on microwave imagery, it is likely that damaging winds has reached the shore near Quelimane.
Inhabitants of this sector, but in a general way all inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
I think I saw that act! Along with Bertha and Igor. .... Scratch that. Igor was in another act.
Is the shot helping?
according to Mauritius naming list..
Ethel is a female's name
Funso is a male's name
I don't think a warm winter necessarily precedes landfalling hurricanes. For example, the winter of 1985 was bitterly cold, yet 8 tropical cyclones struck the US that year, including six hurricanes. washingtonian was trying to draw a causative parallel between cold winters in the eastern US and synoptic scale troughing for the upcoming season, yet in light of the above example, that theory doesn't seem to hold much water.
Additionally, as Masters alluded to, the winter of 2006-2007 started off in a similar manner to this one -- warm, followed by a quick transition to seasonal cold, yet broad-scale troughing ensured that many of the threats either dissipated before reaching the US, or, in many cases, actively recurved such threats.
I am always quite careful of making bold conclusions like this one until I have reasonable evidence. It's possible there's a direct correlation, yes, but unlikely given the sample size we have.
Either way, the major hurricane drought won't last forever.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (986 hPa) located at 20.6S 63.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS
Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 to 80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-cirlce extending up to 110 to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.3S 63.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.8S 63.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 30.3S 65.7E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
72 HRS: 35.4S 77.7E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
Additional Information
======================
Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern with a slight deterioration over the last 6 hours.
Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion and extratropicalization (with re-deepening expected now).
Latest CIMSS shear analysis show a constant northwesterly shear at about 15 kt over the system.
Rodrigues island is now out of the convective mass associated with Ethel.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
It was just a little sedagive!!
From the Weather Channel:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...
* LOCATIONS... THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
* HAZARDS... SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS... 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
* TIMING... STEADIER SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE EVENING... GENERALLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY.
Understood.
http://www.ucsusa.org/scientific_integrity/scienc e_idol/2011-science-idol-contestants.html
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery/loop with BD Enhancement Curve
click image for Loop
Click on Loop to ZOOM
The local media are calling this "Tropical Storm Dando".
Maputo - Five people died and thousands were affected in the first tropical storm to hit southern Mozambique since 1984, an official said on Thursday.
High drama in flood rescue
Looks very close to land, either landfall or a loop.
It's been moving eastward for an hour or so, so it's likely looping.
It's far enough from land now that an eye has re-appeared. It went through an EWRC last night and then all of today the CDO was partially overland, stopping any strengthening, but it appears to have pulled far enough away from land.
Current track is:
Possibility of tornadoes, some strong, tomorrow. This would be a bigger outbreak (possibly warranting our first MODERATE risk of the year, if upper-air forcing and instability was higher...thankfully, it isn't). It looks like January 26 (next Thursday) will be a big day for Severe Weather, across Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, as depicted by models.
Day 2 Convective Outlook:
Day 3 Convective Outlook:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IL...SRN/CNTRL IND...FAR NRN
KY...SRN/CNTRL OH
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 202332Z - 210430Z
FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AOA 0.02 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT
FROM PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IL EWD INTO SRN/CNTRL IND/IL AND POSSIBLY
FAR NRN KY.
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY AT 23Z SHOWS THE INITIAL STAGES OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE FROM SRN IL EWD INTO NRN/ERN KY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 30+ KT SWLY
LLJ...WHICH IS AIDING IN A BROAD WAA REGIME. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING LINE IS LOCATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE OH RIVER...AND THEN EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SRN IL. HOWEVER...WET
BULB COOLING WILL LEAD TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER SRN IL IF
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. ABOVE THE SURFACE...RUC/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2-3 DEG C WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR 850 MB...WHICH
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LLJ SHIFTS
E-NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS
JUXTAPOSED BENEATH THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PROBABLE...PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND N OF THE OH RIVER.
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE 00-03Z PERIOD...PEAKING BY 06Z /MAINLY OVER SRN AND CNTRL
IND AND OH/...AND THEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY 09Z.
..GARNER.. 01/20/2012
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...I ND...PAH...
ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 40378149 39908081 39258132 38528351 37898925 38738992
39628880 40348437 40378149
Rare for a cyclone to hit Southern Mozambique, where Funso is heading, just a week after Dando hit there. Impressive considering that Dando was the first storm to hit Southern Mozambique in nearly 3 decades.
Funso could also be the strongest storm to hit Mozambique, the current record holder is a 105kts (10-min) storm from 2008. (I think) It's not even peak SHem season yet!
Now:
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