Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Xyrus2000:


.

Stores like Walmart aren't popular because they have the best goods.

I always thought it was because the cheap products were constantly in need of replacement. Spend a little more up front (save if you have to) and get a product that lasts longer and works better. Or spend less now and replace it sooner. It's not a foolproof philosophy, but it has served me well as a general rule.

Quoting nigel20:
March 19, 2012

The GOM and the Gulfstream waters continue very warm.

Hi Tropicspr, and I don't think they're going to get any cooler from here on out.

SPC increased the area for tornado threat-Day 1

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The GOM and the Gulfstream waters continue very warm.

The GOM and Gulf stream SST's are way above average, but look at the eastern equatorial pacific, it's not as warm as a couple a weeks ago

Wow, Keeper, that line is starting to look even worse!
Link Frederick OK radar
Statement as of 8:31 AM CDT on March 19, 2012

... Significant weather advisory for Cotton... Tillman... Baylor...
Wichita... Wilbarger and Archer counties until 915 am CDT...

At 831 am CDT... a line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Loveland to Westover... moving northeast at 45 mph.

Hazards include...
hail up to one-half inch diameter...
wind gusts to 50 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Wichita Falls... Burkburnett... Seymour... Sheppard AFB... Iowa Park...Electra... Archer City... Holliday... Grandfield... Davidson...Megargel... Devol... Hollister... Loveland... Grayback... Harrold...Oklaunion... Kamay... Dundee and Lake Diversion.

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions.

Lat... Lon 3341 9936 3427 9923 3442 9847 3340 9851
time... Mot... loc 1327z 242deg 37kt 3429 9870 3345 9906

p.s. I'm surprised there is no tornado warning.

They also increased the area for Severe Weather Threat

Hey, where did that squall line come from?, i went to be at 11 and there was nothing there.

And what happened with the storms in NE and SD?
I didnt see them get a tornado watch and the storms there were weakening at 11.

Now i see a bunch of tornado reports.

Quoting ncstorm:
They also increased the area for Severe Weather Threat

That's a large area

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yeah, try telling that that to the poor or working poor, which now make up a considerable percentage of the country's population.

Stores like Walmart aren't popular because they have the best goods. They're popular because it's affordable. Chinese goods are cheap, and therefore that's what most of the country will purchase.

Stores like Walmart carry the same products that stores "unlike" Walmart do. The same name brands. Now, you can go to a specialty store and likely by a different brand item but it will cost twice as much.

People buy China products because they meet the quality and prices standards Americans want. It is a global economy and China is meeting the need.

and April isnt even here yet, oh boy! What a day its going to be.

Quoting ncstorm:
and April isnt even here yet, oh boy! What a day its going to be.

Don't forget May

Quoting nigel20:

That's a large area

Huge. It's not only got legs, but arms, head and a tail.LinkIR Loop Central US
Waiting for BarefootontheRocks to report in.

I just stepped outside...gulf moisture heading north...and in a hurry. It is very breezy, muggy and warm in the ATX this morning.

Quoting nigel20:

Don't forget May

Its going to be a memorable spring unfortunately for disaster events

I was curious, so I went back to look at what the months of March 1945 & 1946 looked like using the NCDC Local Climate Data archives. Those months were fairly similar to this current month, though not as extreme so early. It seemed the more intense heat didn't arrive until later in the month then. But one thing I found striking was the change in what was considered normal March temperatures.

At Cleveland, normal highs at the airport for March today are 3.6 degrees greater than what was considered normal in 1946. Normal lows are 4.2 degrees warmer. And normal means are 3.9 degrees warmer.

At Toledo, normal highs at the airport for March are 5.2 degrees warmer than what was considered normal in 1945. Normal lows are 2.3 degrees warmer. And normal means are 3.8 degrees warmer.

At Chicago, normal highs at O'Hare for March are 3.7 degrees warmer than normals at Midway from 1945. Normal lows at O'Hare today are 3.1 degrees warmer than those for Midway in 1945. And current means at O'Hare are 3.4 degrees above Midway norms from 1945.

Using the Midway 1981-2010 norms, this effect is even more pronounced. Normal highs are 3.9 degrees warmer, normal lows 4.8 degrees warmer, and normal means 4.3 degrees warmer.

Note that the airports were all pretty new back then. The normals for those locations were evidently based on the old downtown sites with some sort of bias correction factor to account for the fact that the airport locations were often cooler, especially with respect to overnight minima. This is one thing that's lost on a lot of people when they talk about records from the past -- they were often taken downtown and on rooftops, and thus are not comparable to today. If you focus strictly on comparing the temperatures at one continuous site, you get a warming trend considerably greater than what is reported by mainstream science.

How can they say we've only warmed 0.8C since 1850 when the data show a 4F rise just since 1945? Maybe the midwestern US is warming more rapidly than the globe. I'm not sure, but it is alarming.

Greetings all!
I hate to ask a stupid question but any correlation to the jet stream and El Nino/La Nina events going on and hurricane season activity this summer? I realize El Nino depresses storm development with shear but will it be around in time?

We always think that morning rains lower severe weather threat, but many of the worst outbreaks were preceded by morning rains, very often a weak squall line,(like the one there right now).
I wonder why this is. Maybe it is because the systems strong enough to create severe weather outbreaks are so strong that they tend to produce rain from the day before as well.

Or maybe the evaporation of moisture from the ground plays a bigger role in severe weather than we think.

It will be interesting to see what happens today.

Geez wondr what got into the NWS....

yesterday my forecast highs for next 4 days were 78, 76, 76, 77. This morning they are 79, 80, 81, 81

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. ALREADY
SEEING WIND ADVSY CRITERIA MET AT SOME LOCATIONS AND WOULD NOT
DOUBT IF WE SEE SOME GUSTS AOA 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROF WILL GENERATE SCT SHRA AND TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
IS MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE TODAY...BUT KEEP IN MIND IN WOULDN`T
TAKE MUCH FOR A STRONGER CELL TO PRODUCE WINDS NEAR SVR CRITERIA.

MCS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING AS A SPLITTING
JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN S TX SHOULD MOVE
NE AND ALONG THIS COMPLEX AS IT EVOLVES INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT
SHOULD BE ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM NE TX-COLLEGE STATION-CORPUS LINE
AROUND 6AM...THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON THEN INTO OUR ERN
CWA IN THE MID AFTN HOURS. SHOULD SEE THE WHOLE BAG OF WX
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE - DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THINK DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT WIND ENERGY AVAILABLE
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THOUGH TRAINING CELLS ARE A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD...THE LINE ITSELF LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISN`T A GIVEN. AM STILL TAKING NOTE OF THE GFS
WHICH BRINGS A 4" SWATH ACROSS NW ZONES (AND HAS DONE SO FROM
TIME-TO-TIME THE PAST FEW DAYS)...BUT IT IS THE HIGHEST OF THE
MODELS AND ALSO OVERESTIMATED THE LAST EVENTS RAINFALL - SOMETIMES
BADLY. HESITANT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME AND THINK WE HAVE
TIME TO LOOK AT A FEW MORE RUNS. STILL EXPECT 1-3" WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH.

FORECAST BECOMES QUITE DIFFICULT TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED. I
ACTUALLY BELIEVE THIS COULD BE THE TIME PERIOD TO LOOK FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE SFC LOW THAT IS FCST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD UP THE SQUALL LINE IS FCST TO LEAVE A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
ROUGH EYEBALL GUESS BETWEEN ALL THE MODEL SOLNS WOULD BE AROUND
THE I-45 CORRIDOR. CONTINUED STRONG INFLOW FROM THE GULF (AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE INLAND) EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR WEST COULD PROVIDE A SET-UP FOR A CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN TREAT. IF/WHERE THIS WILL SET UP WILL BE THE KEY. MANY
TIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS MESOSCALE FACTORS WILL TAKE OVER (COLD
POOL BEHIND SQUALL LINE PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST,
ETC ETC) AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE NARROWING DOWN AN AREA RIGHT NOW.
BUT HEADS UP I-45 EASTWARD.

UPPER LOW WILL (HOPEFULLY) LIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. 47

Which weather radio do any of you think is the best? I am thinking of upgrading to a new one and just want some opinions!

Today's CPC ENSO update has no change at Nino 3.4 from last week's update at -0.6C.

Link

Quoting SPLbeater:
Geez wondr what got into the NWS....

yesterday my forecast highs for next 4 days were 78, 76, 76, 77. This morning they are 79, 80, 81, 81

Its called "new data". If the forecast stayed the same I'd be more concerned.

Central Texas has a TORCON of 7!

Quoting muddertracker:
Central Texas has a TORCON of 7!

not much there yet!Link Wichita TX

Further west it's kicking up Link Killeen TX

Quoting Chicklit:

not much there yet!

Nope...and I hope "they" are wrong :)
Moisture is in place, though. We'll see what happens.

Gonna be a BA BOOM over TX later today and tonight

later guys

Quoting ClimateChange:
I was curious, so I went back to look at what the months of March 1945 & 1946 looked like using the NCDC Local Climate Data archives. Those months were fairly similar to this current month, though not as extreme so early. It seemed the more intense heat didn't arrive until later in the month then. But one thing I found striking was the change in what was considered normal March temperatures.

At Cleveland, normal highs at the airport for March today are 3.6 degrees greater than what was considered normal in 1946. Normal lows are 4.2 degrees warmer. And normal means are 3.9 degrees warmer.

At Toledo, normal highs at the airport for March are 5.2 degrees warmer than what was considered normal in 1945. Normal lows are 2.3 degrees warmer. And normal means are 3.8 degrees warmer.

At Chicago, normal highs at O'Hare for March are 3.7 degrees warmer than normals at Midway from 1945. Normal lows at O'Hare today are 3.1 degrees warmer than those for Midway in 1945. And current means at O'Hare are 3.4 degrees above Midway norms from 1945.

Using the Midway 1981-2010 norms, this effect is even more pronounced. Normal highs are 3.9 degrees warmer, normal lows 4.8 degrees warmer, and normal means 4.3 degrees warmer.

Note that the airports were all pretty new back then. The normals for those locations were evidently based on the old downtown sites with some sort of bias correction factor to account for the fact that the airport locations were often cooler, especially with respect to overnight minima. This is one thing that's lost on a lot of people when they talk about records from the past -- they were often taken downtown and on rooftops, and thus are not comparable to today. If you focus strictly on comparing the temperatures at one continuous site, you get a warming trend considerably greater than what is reported by mainstream science.

How can they say we've only warmed 0.8C since 1850 when the data show a 4F rise just since 1945? Maybe the midwestern US is warming more rapidly than the globe. I'm not sure, but it is alarming.

No doubt land locations have risen more than 0.8C. Even though land temperatures rise faster we also have to average in surface temperatures over oceans. These temperatures bring down the average because water is slower to warm than land. So even though most land locations have risen 3+ degrees F the average when the cooler and more vast ocean air temperatures are averaged is apprx. 0.8 C. For example the northeastern corridor has risen almost 4 degrees F!
Link

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Its called "new data". If the forecast stayed the same I'd be more concerned.

the NWS doesnt make a rather large change like that. usually its gradual, not overnight smarts

Dr. Master's new Blog is up!

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Which weather radio do any of you think is the best? I am thinking of upgrading to a new one and just want some opinions!

I have a First Alert NOAA radio...works good i think.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm thinking about going chasing today. It's not the best setup, but I'm so close (at the edge of the moderate risk already) that if anything good does develop, I can get there in a hurry.

But the big show isn't until late tonight...

Quoting bluheelrtx:

I always thought it was because the cheap products were constantly in need of replacement. Spend a little more up front (save if you have to) and get a product that lasts longer and works better. Or spend less now and replace it sooner. It's not a foolproof philosophy, but it has served me well as a general rule.

First, just because they have the same brand name and look alike, products from one store to another to another are not necessarily interchangeable. You need to look at the base specs, particularly in electronics.

Secondly, while corporations collude to manipulate the tastes and styles of the consumer, the consumer still drives the market. Americans like to have "new" stuff. That may be evolving, witness mileage expectations for automotive products, but the idea of Detroit producing a car like the Volvo which is financed for 10 yrs and expected to last 20 is still not in the works, partially due to the fact that average commutes in the U.S. are much greater and partially due to the fact that few folks would be willing to hang on to a product for that long.

Thirdly, disposal costs are not internalized in the initial price of a product. Up until quite recently, we had the illusion that there was plenty of "useless" space where we could dump "useless" stuff.

It is very easy to "should" on our fellow occupants of the planet, changing the factors which cause them to behave as they do is a much more difficult struggle.

Quoting Patrap:

Have a Battery Backed up NOAA Alert Weather Radio as it is the best bet on being alerted to Severe Weather.

My interest in weather has landed me three of those over the years. And as corny as it may sound, I have quite a collection of "vintage" weather radios. I will have to see if I can post some pictures of them. Some are in bad shape, some in near perfect. I think I have 10, maybe 12.

Dr. Jeff Masters, I want to extend a big thank you for putting one of or coldest cities on the map for something other than being the Ice Box of America.

Can you imagine these people coming out of their homes dressed for Winter only to find that it's Summer already???!!!