Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Looks similar to what was reported on by the Weather Channel recently. I think they are doing some kind of GIS density analysis of all tornadoes. If similar to what was reported on by TWC, it has no weighting of tornado width, length, or intensity, which kinda makes me wonder if it really is all that great at providing accurate "tornado risk" information to insurers and other interested parties.

Florida might be near the top for number of tornadoes, but tornado intensity averages fairly low for such states. I think a better metric would be a comparison between a GIS analysis of tornado density and a GIS analysis of average tornado intensity, maybe:
Count x Intensity
Maybe long-track tornadoes could also be put onto a point-based-grid such that there are multiple "points" for the tornado tracks if they are not just brief touchdowns. This might help take into account the fact that more people "experience" a tornado when it is long-track versus brief.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I feel like it's me against the blog :P
How does it not become irreversible: We become more energy efficient, use more solar/wind power, less fossil fuels. We use energy efficient lighting. We make better electric cars. Etc, etc, etc. It's not going to happen overnight. But it can happen. And it can stop global warming.

Quoting RitaEvac:



As for drought and summer heat....

Easy, think about plant nurseries, they have the black netted tarps over the plants mounted by poles, like a deck. Sun still comes thru but not as intense and rain still falls thru. Knocks out the suns heat tremendously, put it over the crop, in fact I don't know why farmers don't do it this way

Quoting LargoFl:
I read this and all i see is increased homeowners issurance premiums even though, ive lived here for almost 30 years and never once saw a tornado

Quoting Neapolitan:
I believe you live in Pinellas County, right? (Correct me if I'm wrong.) The Tornado History Project lists 122 tornadoes in that county between 1950 and 2010, mostly weak ones as you've noted, though on occasion with something stronger:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS continues to show a big outbreak Sunday and on...some of the hodographs it has been putting out are getting just plain ridiculous.

Quoting Jedkins01:



I've lived here for 16 years and seen 3, maybe you don't have your eyes to the skies enough :) I also witness a lot more meteorites than my friends because of my eyes being on the sky from so much storm tracking!


Really though, most people in traditionally tornado alley report never seeing one either. Unfortunately people start ignoring warnings sometimes because they didn't personally see a tornado themselves during a warning so it must have been hyped.


Its similar to how I know many people who aren't concerned with the future of the U.S. only because nothing has happened to them yet. That type of thinking doesn't make any sense and aggravates me greatly but its a common thing in human nature because many people would rather ignore a danger no matter how serious until its too late or almost too late and finally hits home.

Quoting Jedkins01:
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Now here is the big one of Pinellas County, the F4 which killed more than 10 and injured more than 500.


If I am correct under the new EF scale this tornado would actually be an EF5 because its winds I believe were estimated to be greater than 200 mph...

Quoting RitaEvac:


Totally off subject, but with turmoil in the middle east, oil there, guy shooting 16 civilians, people hating Obama, young black kid in Florida gets shot and everybody across the nation protesting (like Rodney King) all over again, with elections coming up, Occupy Wall Street thawing out and getting organized for spring and summer, gas prices outta control, storms ravaging areas, earthquakes constantly popping somewhere across the globe, economy on the brink....

The whole friggin planet is ready to explode in utter turmoil and chaos like never before seen. Something is building up and bout to explode seems like by the end of this year

Quoting TampaSpin:
For those interested that us my site...i did install a new ChatRoom that works rather well!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Among them are four important ones:

African Drought.

Less than average MDR waters.

Good chance of having El Nino. (Although not certain how strong if it comes)

Higher Pressures in most of Atlantic Basin.

Quoting nigel20:

Nice website TampaSpin

Quoting TampaSpin:
What has the SUN been doing this nearly complete MONTH....It's been very active has it not? The recent Global Warmth HAS BEEN THE SUN!

Quoting RitaEvac:


One mega-quake on populated area on west coast, with Tsunami, and a Cat 4-5 cane on the Gulf coast destroying offshore platforms and rigs and hits either Houston or NOLA, gas prices already around $4, and economy hanging on by a thread, it'll be like the end of the world in America, were sitting ducks and we better hope we duck IF or WHEN it happens....then throw all the above in from previous quote.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Totally off subject, but with turmoil in the middle east, oil there, guy shooting 16 civilians, people hating Obama, young black kid in Florida gets shot and everybody across the nation protesting (like Rodney King) all over again, with elections coming up, Occupy Wall Street thawing out and getting organized for spring and summer, gas prices outta control, storms ravaging areas, earthquakes constantly popping somewhere across the globe, economy on the brink....

The whole friggin planet is ready to explode in utter turmoil and chaos like never before seen. Something is building up and bout to explode seems like by the end of this year

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Among them are four important ones:

African Drought.

Less than average MDR waters.

Good chance of having El Nino. (Although not certain how strong if it comes)

Higher Pressures in most of Atlantic Basin.

Quoting Cyclone2012:


Adrian, please keep in mind that a less active hurricane season translate to an exponentially HIGHER likelihood of landfalls as a result. Even Levi knows this to be true.

Quoting TampaSpin:
What has the SUN been doing this nearly complete MONTH....It's been very active has it not? The recent Global Warmth HAS BEEN THE SUN!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
rita you are doing it again stop scaring the people we are only here to warn them

Quoting TampaSpin:
What has the SUN been doing this nearly complete MONTH....It's been very active has it not? The recent Global Warmth HAS BEEN THE SUN!

Quoting StormTracker2K:

The tornado remained on the ground for 90 percent of its life span.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Another factor for not previously mentioned:
Indications of a warm Kelvin Wave moving across the Pacific.
Cold anomalies in SST departures have diminished.


Factors against:
Rising SOI
Cold PDO phase.
High SST's in the GOMEX.
Well above SST anomalies in the Jet Stream.


Based on this, it is now growing more event that a typical El Nino event will infact be gripping the Atlantic this hurricane season. However, here's the key - it's going to occur later than in 2009 and 2006 did, say around mid-season or so, and it will lag somewhat causing a slightly more robust hurricane season than what we saw in 2009 and 2006, so around 12-13 is a fair bet. Overall, we are probably looking at a normal hurricane season, not below (2009) or above (2011, 2010). However, we could for all we know have 9 of those 12 storms hit land.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Fear is the greatest way of warning

Quoting CybrTeddy:
CAPE values being predicted by the GFS are very high over Central Texas, with the highest over San Antonio.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Another factor for not previously mentioned:
Indications of a warm Kelvin Wave moving across the Pacific.
Cold anomalies in SST departures have diminished.


Factors against:
Rising SOI
Cold PDO phase.
High SST's in the GOMEX.
Well above SST anomalies in the Jet Stream.


Based on this, it is now growing more event that a typical El Nino event will infact be gripping the Atlantic this hurricane season. However, here's the key - it's going to occur later than in 2009 and 2006 did, say around mid-season or so, and it will lag somewhat causing a slightly more robust hurricane season than what we saw in 2009 and 2006, so around 12-13 is a fair bet. Overall, we are probably looking at a normal hurricane season, not below (2009) or above (2011, 2010). However, we could for all we know have 9 of those 12 storms hit land.

Quoting Cyclone2012:
Latest SST (as of March 26th, 2012) readings continue to reveal a cooling eastern Pacific, BTW, folks.

No EL NINO anytime soon!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's a strong CAP in place both here and in South Dakota. I highly doubt today is worth a Slight risk. Initiation will start after dark at the earliest.

Quoting Cyclone2012:


Yeah............right! Don't hold your breath! Do you seriously think that we'll see in Apirl what was NEVER witnessed all winter long?

Wake up and smell the coffee, my man, =).

AIN'T HAPPENING!

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Thanks,

Hurricane City says South Florida gets hit or brushed every 1.97 years.

Its been 6/7 years.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It does, however, show some warming in the cool Eastern Atlantic.

March 22, 2012:



March 26, 2012:

Quoting Neapolitan:
From Scientific American this afternoon, this bit of happy news:

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible

"The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.

"We are on the cusp of some big changes," said Steffen. "We can ... cap temperature rise at two degrees, or cross the threshold beyond which the system shifts to a much hotter state."

TIPPING POINTS

For ice sheets - huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet - the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s.

Most climate estimates agree the Amazon rainforest will get drier as the planet warms. Mass tree deaths caused by drought have raised fears it is on the verge of a tipping point, when it will stop absorbing emissions and add to them instead.

Around 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon were lost in 2005 from the rainforest and 2.2 billion tonnes in 2010, which has undone about 10 years of carbon sink activity, Steffen said.

One of the most worrying and unknown thresholds is the Siberian permafrost, which stores frozen carbon in the soil away from the atmosphere.

"There is about 1,600 billion tonnes of carbon there - about twice the amount in the atmosphere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencing the most severe temperature change of any part of the planet," he said.

In a worst case scenario, 30 to 63 billion tonnes of carbon a year could be released by 2040, rising to 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100. This compares to around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 released by fossil fuel use each year.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere has also turned oceans more acidic as they absorb it. In the past 200 years, ocean acidification has happened at a speed not seen for around 60 million years, said Carol Turley at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

This threatens coral reef development and could lead to the extinction of some species within decades, as well as to an increase in the number of predators.

As leading scientists, policy-makers and environment groups gathered at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference in London, opinions differed on what action to take this decade.

London School of Economics professor Anthony Giddens favors focusing on the fossil fuel industry, seeing as renewables only make up 1 percent of the global energy mix.

"We have enormous inertia within the world economy and should make much more effort to close down coal-fired power stations," he said.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell favours working on technologies leading to negative emissions in the long run, like carbon capture on biomass and in land use, said Jeremy Bentham, the firm's vice president of global business environment.

The conference runs through Thursday."