Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

As an appointed (by Al Gore) information officer, I can now announce that (after a thorough inventory that is now closed) it has been shown that the thermometers used by HadCRU, NOAA and NASA have been upside down all years so our planet is not as hot as previously thought.

Consensus still prevails in the case of satellite measurements vs. other measurements, as it also emerged that the satellites have been upside down and driving in the wrong orbit for 30 years.

Here is the correct global temperature anomaly for the years 1950-2010 according to HadCRUT:



And the global temperature anomaly map for the year 2010 (from GISS/NASA):

SPC day 4-8 outlook
------------------------------------------------- -
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KS AND N TX ON WED/D4...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...BUT ONGOING PRECIPITATION INCLUDING STORMS IS LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN WHERE SEVERE WILL OCCUR. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING WITH DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN...IT APPEARS EXPECTED SEVERE COVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SOME SEVERE WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD ON THUR/D5...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SEVERE AS WELL AS MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ALSO HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A NERN TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE ANY AREAS.

FOR FRI D6...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD. THE QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS IN QUESTION WITH THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWING 50S TO LOWER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON D6. THIS TROUGH THEN EJECTS NEWD WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2012

----------------------------------------------
sounds good :)

I'm not predicting anything until at least May.The models seem confused as to what will truly happen.However at this point in time I'm not buying a strong or moderate El nino.Maybe a weak one at most.That's all I'm saying.

Quoting Xandra:
As an appointed (by Al Gore) information officer, I can now announce that (after a thorough inventory that is now closed) it has been shown that the thermometers used by HadCRU, NOAA and NASA have been upside down all years so our planet is not as hot as previously thought.

Consensus still prevails in the case of satellite measurements vs. other measurements, as it also emerged that the satellites have been upside down and driving in the wrong orbit for 30 years.

Here is the correct global temperature anomaly for the years 1950-2010 according to HadCRUT:



And the global temperature anomaly map for the year 2010 (from GISS/NASA):

Was that an april fools?

Quoting weatherh98:
Was that an april fools?

What do you think. ;)

Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
HOW CAN THEY PREDICT HOW MANY STORMS WE WILL GET MONTHS FROM NOW WHEN THEY CANT EVEN PREDICT WHEN OR WHERE A STORM WILL GO OR WHAT IT WILL WHEN WE HAVE ONE?

It's easy.

Global warming. April foolssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

Quoting hurricaneoz:
Hi,

Usually only check this blog out in the hurricane season. Was interested in getting the experts on here, thoughts on this developing tropical storm in the Pacific.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirg mscol.html

Officially this is only classed as a tropical depression but seems to have the signature of a tropical storm to me. The other issue is its course. Fiji authorities have it going well to the south but its recent movement seems to be ESE rather than the forecast SE. It is moving rather quickly - around 25Mph which will limit intensification to an extent.

The main problem is that Fiji is still experiencing major flooding from the last depression - there are thousands trapped there that cannot get to the airport to get a flight out - there has been over 20 inches of rain in Nadi over the last 4-5 days. It has eased overnight but it looks likely that another lot is coming. Obviously the closer this thing gets to Fiji the worse it will be.

Weather authorities in Fiji are notoriously slow to react and identify issues - the recent flooding was hardly even predicted and no warnings issued. I have a number of people in Fiji trying to leave and just want some decent information, they are not in any danger but would like to know when they can leave.

PS: No April Fools Joke - it is already April 2 here!

Wanted to bring this to the next page so some on here could possibly help

Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not predicting anything until at least May.The models seem confused as to what will truly happen.However at this point in time I'm not buying a strong or moderate El nino.Maybe a weak one at most.That's all I'm saying.

I stated the same point earlier...the models will not get a full grasp on what ENSO conditions will occur until closer to the hurricane season

Quoting Bergeron:


It's easy.

I hear they do it with magic. And goat sacrifice. It's kinda messy yeah but the NHC has THE best goat stew in its cafeteria.

BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back! Now I know it's getting real close to hurricane season when it's time to break out the HeadOn!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.

Quoting dogsgomoo:


I hear they do it with magic. And goat sacrifice. It's kinda messy yeah but the NHC has THE best goat stew in it's cafeteria.

lol!

Quoting weatherh98:
Was that an april fools?

Yeah...remember also that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record

Quoting CybrTeddy:
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back already!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.

NOBODY immitates SPLbeater...it cant happen. lol

Quoting nigel20:

I stated the same point earlier...the models will not get a full grasp on what ENSO conditions will occur until closer to the hurricane season

The modles have been flip flopping between warm neutral and El nino.And some just down right predict El nino.I thik by late May if things look like we may have an El nino then we could be looking at an average to below average hurricane season.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back! Now I know it's getting real close to hurricane season when it's time to break out the HeadOn!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.

It's too early to go through this routine!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's too early to go through this routine!

i will get to see the entire 6 months of troll season this time!

Quoting washingtonian115:
The modles have been flip flopping between warm neutral and El nino.And some just down right predict El nino.I thik by late May if things look like we may have an El nino then we could be looking at an average to below average hurricane season.

Agreed

Quoting SPLbeater:


i will get to see the entire 6 months of troll season this time!

Just watch out for 500 emails you will not be able to delete in your inbox, and accept that fact that the blog will be broke sometimes because a hacker troll has messed up. Get used to the fact that we'll see hundreds of consecutive posts in the comment section by the same troll, and you can't ignore it.

Fun..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's too early to go through this routine!

Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Canada.

Oh my that face....Somebody is mad...

Quoting txjac:


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman

I would if I could, but, unfortunately, I know nothing about tropical systems in that region of the world.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Canada.

That's funny!

Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh my that face....Somebody is mad...

Lol.

Quoting txjac:


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman

Quoting txjac:


Wanted to bring this to the next page so some on here could possibly help

Let me take a look at things

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just watch out for 500 emails you will not be able to delete in your inbox, and accept that fact that the blog will be broke sometimes because a hacker troll has messed up. Get used to the fact that we'll see hundreds of consecutive posts in the comment section by the same troll, and you can't ignore it.

Fun..

Fun? sounds like a swat team determine dto shut this place down to me!

Quoting CybrTeddy:
BADFORCASTAGAIN?

Awesome! The whole gang is back! Now I know it's getting real close to hurricane season when it's time to break out the HeadOn!

We've seen Jason, JFV*, and now StormTop* within the last 24 hours! They're the circumnavigating gang.. you can't ban them, they'll just make new accounts. Basically, a real good reason reason that WU needs IP bans.

*suspect, more than likely impersonators.

There's never a bad time for hurricane season!

Or HeadOn...

Will the EPAC get early developments before May 15? I am not saying is going to go ahead and develop, but I found somewhat interesting the area of convection located in the far Eastern Pacific South of Panama and Costa Rica.

Tonight's discussion:

FURTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ALONG A STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CENTRAL
PANAMA TO 06N90W...AND THEN SW T0 04N95W. THE TROUGH MAY
ACTUALLY BE AN INCIPIENT WEAK MONSOON TROUGH...BUT SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW S
OF THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY A BROAD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 09N85W TO 05N82W
AND TO 02N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-92W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN ISTHMUS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH. ALSO...LONG TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVED HAS MOVED INTO THAT PORTION OF THE ERN PACIFIC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION CLUSTERS THERE.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There's never a bad time for hurricane season!

Or HeadOn...

Apply directly to the forehead.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Get your anti-troll images for hurricane season here! Buy 1 get the rest FREE!!!

I'll take OVER9000 Futurama Fry and OVER9000 Y U NO guy meme pictures!

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Apply directly to the forehead.

Thanks for the tip... I wasn't sure

Hey y'all...checking back in. That GOM t-storm blob keeps on flaring...but the shear is high...

However...the NHC has added a surface trough to the disturbance on the TAFB analysis at 8 PM....

Quoting txjac:


Then don't ..go to post 208 and maybe answer some questions for the gentleman

Thanks for trying txjac - seems like we don't have the 'right' experts on here tonight.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Get your anti-troll images for hurricane season here! Buy 1 get the rest FREE!!!

Lol...troll exterminator

Get your weather memes here for hurricane season! Buy one get the rest FREE!!!!

Quoting hurricaneoz:
Hi,

Usually only check this blog out in the hurricane season. Was interested in getting the experts on here, thoughts on this developing tropical storm in the Pacific.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirg mscol.html

Officially this is only classed as a tropical depression but seems to have the signature of a tropical storm to me. The other issue is its course. Fiji authorities have it going well to the south but its recent movement seems to be ESE rather than the forecast SE. It is moving rather quickly - around 25Mph which will limit intensification to an extent.

The main problem is that Fiji is still experiencing major flooding from the last depression - there are thousands trapped there that cannot get to the airport to get a flight out - there has been over 20 inches of rain in Nadi over the last 4-5 days. It has eased overnight but it looks likely that another lot is coming. Obviously the closer this thing gets to Fiji the worse it will be.

Weather authorities in Fiji are notoriously slow to react and identify issues - the recent flooding was hardly even predicted and no warnings issued. I have a number of people in Fiji trying to leave and just want some decent information, they are not in any danger but would like to know when they can leave.

PS: No April Fools Joke - it is already April 2 here!

Answering because no one else has. In a way, I think you answered your own question.

Comment 219. at HadesGodWyvern's wublog has what looks like the latest official advisory. Tropical storm warning. There are gale and wind warnings and a flood warning up. Loop you posted looks like it is moving SE and the center will pass SW of Fiji main islands, but I am no expert. Seems they're gonna get more heavy rain and wind soon even without a direct hit. As far as when they can get out, I have no idea. Mightn't it be up to island authorities?

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Will the EPAC get early developments before May 15? I am not saying is going to go ahead and develop, but I found somewhat interesting the area of convection located in the far Eastern Pacific South of Panama and Costa Rica.

Tonight's discussion:

FURTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ALONG A STATIONARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CENTRAL
PANAMA TO 06N90W...AND THEN SW T0 04N95W. THE TROUGH MAY
ACTUALLY BE AN INCIPIENT WEAK MONSOON TROUGH...BUT SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE FLOW S
OF THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY A BROAD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 09N85W TO 05N82W
AND TO 02N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-92W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN ISTHMUS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH. ALSO...LONG TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVED HAS MOVED INTO THAT PORTION OF THE ERN PACIFIC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION CLUSTERS THERE.

We may see developement before may 15 if the shear across that region decreases

Lots of warmth heat around the Great Plains today, with several hundred high temperature records broken. Sioux City, IA, reached 93 today, beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been so warm there. Valentine, NE, hit 91, also beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been that hot there. Sioux Falls, SD, reached 89, ditto. And so on and so forth all throughout a number of states.

I'm just now over the past several days starting to see more articles about low soil moisture due to the persistent heat, and--more importantly--what that could mean for the spring and summer ahead. Yikes.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Lots of warmth heat around the Great Plains today, with several hundred high temperature records broken. Sioux City, IA, reached 93 today, beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been so warm there. Valentine, NE, hit 91, also beating by two weeks the earliest it's ever been that hot there. Sioux Falls, SD, reached 89, ditto. And so on and so forth all throughout a number of states.

I'm just now over the past several days starting to see more articles about low soil moisture due to the persistent heat, and--more importantly--what that could mean for the spring and summer ahead. Yikes.

How did you do that?

Quoting hurricaneoz:


Thanks for trying txjac - seems like we don't have the 'right' experts on here tonight.

Oz, most of my sites are down or under update...from what I can make out of current steering and water vapor and low level satellite, the area 95P, I believe you're asking about, is currently being steered in a general ESE or just E of SE, and based on water vapor (as my steering sites are down), it should continue just west of Fiji on a continued SE-ESE direction. It does have an upper level anticyclone overhead, so I would imagine further organization and strengthening is likely. Haven't had a chance to see what seas are going to look like, and unless steering is due to change, I feel the center should remain over water. I don't know what winds are like there right now, or the wind radii. It's just hard to tell anything else without and guidance as far as future steering or wind radii, however if wind shear stays as it is, and the anticyclone remains above it, look for strengthening.

Quoting SPLbeater:


NOBODY immitates SPLbeater...it cant happen. lol

Oh there's plenty I know of lol

Long time, no type canes. How are you doing?

Quoting nigel20:

Yeah...remember also that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record

Notice that in the years I've been on this planet it has been noticeably warmer just saying ya know

IM HOT

Quoting hurricaneoz:


Thanks for trying txjac - seems like we don't have the 'right' experts on here tonight.

I just saw your post on the last page...and looked at the satellite animation you provided....

First I can say that yes...it does indeed look like a tropical storm instead of a depression....but the more objective method of figuring out strength from satellite imagery is the Dvorak T-numbers...which I don't know how to retrieve for that region (usually I rely on others on this blog to post T-numbers). When I checked the Navy NRL site...it had as Invest 95P? So was this recently upgraded to a depression?

Trying not to be ignorant...I looked up where Fiji is located because I am not too familiar with the geography in that area. That satellite animation you posted shows a SE track with the system center expected to pass west of Fiji (that is if I located the islands correctly in the satellite animation). However the cyclone is quiet large...and some of those outer NE rain bands could pass over Fiji after the center passes them to the southwest...

Its getting a lot of attention in the media outlets...for example this link. Therefore...the threat of the cyclone seems like its being taken seriously...

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Apply directly to the forehead.

HeadOn...

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Apply directly to the forehead.

You forgot:

Apply directly to the forehead
Apply directly to the forehead
Head on
Apply directly to the forehead
Apply directly to the foreheard
Head on...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Long time, no type canes. How are you doing?

Pretty good Geoff, being kept busy a lot. How're things with you?