CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.
Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:
1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.
2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.
How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.
CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.
Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.
Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.
Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If SSTs were the only thing we worried about, then tropical forecasting would be a breeze. The forecast calls for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 majors. Who's to say that one of those intense ones doesn't pop up close to home? The point is that the majority of the Atlantic is not going to be conducive for tropical development not only because of below normal SSTs, but because of the hostile upper level environment El Nino brings. Sure, the SSTs are going to be ideal for major hurricanes close to home. They always are in the peak of the season. What's not always there is proper upper level conditions, especially in El Nino years. As we all know, it only takes one and one of those 10 named storms being forecast could be it.
Formed August 16, 1992
Dissipated August 28, 1992
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
175 mph (280 km/h)
Lowest pressure 922 mbar (hPa); 27.23 inHg
Fatalities 26 direct, 39 indirect
Damage $26.5 billion (1992 USD)
(Third costliest tropical cyclone in U.S. history)
Areas affected Bahamas; South Florida, Louisiana, and other areas of the Southern United StatesHurricane Andrew was a long-lived, destructive, classical, and very powerful Cape Verde-type hurricane of the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season and was the third Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States, after the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Andrew was the first named storm and only major hurricane of the otherwise inactive 1992 Atlantic hurricane season. During Andrew's duration it struck the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida at Homestead (south of Miami), and southwest Louisiana around Morgan City in August.[1] Andrew caused $26.5 billion in damage (1992 USD, $43.9 billion 2012 USD), with most of that damage cost in south Florida, which it struck at Category 5 strength; however, other sources estimated the total cost between $27 billion (1992 USD, $44.7 billion 2012 USD) and $34 billion (1992 USD, $49.7 billion 2012 USD). Its central pressure ranks as the fourth-lowest in U.S. landfall records. Andrew was the costliest Atlantic hurricane in U.S. history prior to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It was also surpassed by Hurricane Ike in 2008.
Respectfully, I think that the major factor, as I mentioned early this am during a bout of insomnia, is going to to boil down to the wind sheer. Your points are well taken in terms of SST's and certain portions of the MDR but if the sheer levels are not favorable, it will hinder development no matter how high the SST's are. El Nino increases wind sheer and tends to shorten the season and number of storms.....The real question to be answered (in terms of the ultimate numbers) will be the when/if timing factor as to El Nino conditions and whether they manifest earlier or later during the normal peak of the season.
Cool looking system off of Hawaii
Climate Prediction Center
This was posted on the previous blog about time the new blog came out.
I mean, it seems CSU did not come to the same conclusions as NOAA regarding the timing of the El Nino, because they suggest neutral will continue "through summer," which of course summer ends on September 21, I think.
This suggest El Nino would only be affecting the latter third of September plus October.
That first picture with the cul de sac looks like the house/neighborhood (My GF's house at the time) where she was living near Metro-Zoo. We were on the fence as to whether to stay there and decided at Noon that Sunday to go to our respective parent's house (In North Miami) because they were "older" and might need some help. We did not board up; our neighbor fully boarded up........Both houses were "gone" when we got back there on Monday morning.
BTW, that was an El Nino year with only 9 named storms and Andrew more than made up for the other 8 ones that followed (I have completely forgotten those names).
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REACHING
AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR BY 6 TO 9 PM...POINTS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE BY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO ALLEVIATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
Total storms 7
Hurricanes 4
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 1
Total fatalities 66
Total damage $26 billion (1992 USD)
The natural gas discussion is so stupid it's hilarious. There will be a record amount of nat gas inventories by July if it keeps building. The price isn't quadrupling to 8$/M any time soon.
Never mind there is plenty of shut in gas in the shale formations that can be brought back pretty quickly.
Yes we had a system similar to this roll thru late last March (2011) and did tremendous amounts os damage across C FL. Some of the wind gust were clocked at 100 mph. I believe that was measured in Winter Park. Many areas had no power for days.
I have been an amateur tropical weather tracker for the last 17 years and one point I have increasingly realized is that sea surface temperatures are not the main determining factor in development during the hurricane season. Adequately warm SSTs are a prerequisite for tropical development, but it is usually the other factors that really make or break a storm.
How are the prospects looking for severe weather in East Central Florida this evening?
My GF never recovered; even though we were not in the house during the storm, she had raised her son there (he stayed with his Father in Kendall but they were ok)and we lost everything in/at the house including her boat (I just lost my clothing, personal items, and cd/record collection and two guitars and amps)...She went into a deep depression and alcohol issues that lasted for years after Andrew, and, which caused the demise of our relationship the following year. This is why counseling is very important for survivors of Canes and other natural disasters because losing everything or surviving through such a traumatic experience can actually lead to PTSD issues...(Same applies to soldiers/war veterans/first-responders, etc.)
Thursday April 5
AL - 2
FL panhandle, northeast - 2
GA - 2
LA southeast - 2
MS northeast - 2
MS southeast - 2 to 3
NC southwest - 2
SC - 2
TN central, south - 2
Other areas - less than 1
Friday April 6
CO extreme east - 2 or less
FL central, south - 2
KS extreme west - 2 or less
KS central night - 2 or less
ND west - 2 or less
NE west - 2 or less
NE south-central night - 2 or less
OK panhandle - 2 or less
OK north-central night - 2 or less
SD west - 2 or less
TX eastern panhandle - 2
TX southwest near Fort Stockton - 2 or less
Other areas - less than 1
Warmer winters due to global warming may ironically provide a small negative feedback to global warming itself, by reducing demand for fuels used in heating.
Ahh good memories out of that... Not.
Well, 1930s was a lot worse.
Link
Pfft. I predict that we will start seeing a cooling trend soon for 20 years...
yeah?
When's it going to start?
That whole high records vs low records thing isn't exactly favoring your forecast this year...not by a very long margin.
4 to 6 hours at least?
Hard to say what, if any you get, because the tail of the system goes out of radar range and you can't exactly tell how strong it is down there right now, and infrared satellite almost always over-estimates this sort of thing.
Edit:
Um, radar loop I was using was old and hadn't been refreshed. It's a bit closer than I realized.
You bought a Trane?
Added reference - Trane
I can hear the theme music playing again!
I agree that price quadrupling isn't likely in the next few years. But at current prices most of the drilling rigs have left the natural gas fields. Until the current supply gut is used up and prices rise some they won't return.
The futures market sees NG prices doubling over the next five years.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
211 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
SCZ055-051915-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
211 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
AT 210 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN RHEMS...YAUHANNAH AND OUTLAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH TOWARD
HIGHWAY 261.
SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE YAUHANNAH AND RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 261 BETWEEN OUTLAND AND YAUHANNAH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS IN UP TO 45 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
&&
LAT...LON 3362 7940 3371 7939 3370 7924 3370 7925
3370 7921 3370 7918 3369 7918 3368 7915
3366 7915 3356 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 268DEG 13KT 3365 7931
$$
SRP
Why are you comparing March of one year with August of another?
----
edit: Oh, I see. It's because you got your information from Real (Faked) Science....
It's going to start in, ...., er, about, ...., er, soon.
Yeh, that's it! Soon. It's going to start soon.
Or maybe a bit later if it doesn't start soon. Yeh, that's the answer.... Sooner or later. But it's going to happen.... Trust me.....
...2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10degreesN and 20degreesN were near average to below average in March 2012..."
Comparing their SeaSurfaceTemperature and 26degreeCelsiusIsothermDepth charts, there seems to be only a marginally discernable difference in the MDR between 2012 and 2011, with 2012 being only slightly cooler. ie The difference seems to be of the level that can easily be made up in a week or two.
Considering that solar activity is on the upswing compared to last year, what is CSU "seeing" that makes them think that the MDR won't be as warm as or warmer than last year by the time HurricaneSeason arrives?
It's a line of thunderstorm that develops a "bowing shape" which means part of the line sort of moves ahead of the rest of the line while still staying attatched to it (if that made any sense)
They typically produce very strong non tornadic winds, sometimes over 100mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-052115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
503 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
LATE THIS MORNING...THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING BUT SLOWLY END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.
...WIND AND SEAS IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON MUCH OF THE GULF
WATERS.
...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS WORKING SATURDAY WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REACHING CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
$$
09/RKR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
154 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-052200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
154 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
.NOW...
A RAPIDLY MOVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THREATS INCLUDE 50 TO 60
MPH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.
THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR AROUND 6 TO 9 PM...POINTS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE BY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND MONITOR THE WEATHER IF HEADING OUT THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.
&&
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
$$
Yeah I just noticed that. Interesting as the line that was in the gulf fell apart. Maybe it's because of the line forming in southern AL, GA, & FL Panhandle.
Hi Largo, I got no rain last night some flashes of lightning but no rain on the eastside of FL.
NCC047-SCC043-051-067-052000-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0021.120405T1901Z-120405T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 400 PM EDT
* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PEE DEE CROSSROADS TO 8 MILES WEST OF DONGOLA...AND MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PEE DEE CROSSROADS...
HORRY...
HOMEWOOD...
MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
&&
I see some purple showing up 70mph winds
Without including 2005, the average of the remaining 4 neutral years on Dr.Masters' list is:
60divided-by4 or 15 named storms
33divided-by4 or ~8 hurricanes
18divided-by4 or 4to5 majors
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