The first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 for the U.S. was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast, said NOAA today. They put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama at 1.5 billion. Global reinsurance company AON Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report, put the damage at $2 billion. The outbreak spawned two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. The two other tornado outbreaks of note that occurred in February and March had damages less than $1 billion: the Leap Day tornadoes in Illinois and surrounding states ($475 million), and the Dexter, Michigan tornado EF-3 tornado of March 15 ($275 million.) I expect that the tornadoes that swept through the Dallas, Texas region last week will likely have a damage tally in the hundreds of millions, but fall short of the billion-dollar mark. In 2011, we already had two billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of April, so we are behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to AON Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February caused an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.
Figure 1. A school bus mangled by the EF-4 Henryville, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Image credit: NWS Louisville, Kentucky.
A week for severe severe weather across the Plains and Midwest
Expect severe weather and tornadoes every day this week across the Plains and Midwest U.S., says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada most of the week, creating conditions ripe for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes all week. The main focus of severe weather today will be over Western Oklahoma and portions of the Texas Panhandle, where SPC has issued their lowest highest level of alert, a "Slight Risk."
Figure 2. Severe weather threat for Monday, April 9, 2012.
Video 1. Wunderground tornado expert Dr. Rob Carver alerted me to this remarkable railroad surveillance video recently posted to YouTube that captures a train derailed by a Tornado January 7, 2008 in Harvard, IL. The tornado moved across the Chicago and Northwestern railroad where it blew 12 railroad freight cars off the track. The train was moving at the time the tornado hit it, so as the main engine stopped, the remaining cars on the track continued along it and slammed into the front part of the train. No one was injured, but 500 residents in the nearby unincorporated town of Lawrence were evacuated because of the potential for a hazardous materials situation.
Jeff Masters
3/2/12 tornado damage to a business I pass on my way to and from work. This was a beautiful brick building.
Beginning of Tornado in Franklin, NC. Taken by a local Wal Mart Worker and was uploaded to Weather Channel on March 2, 2012
This picture of a small tornado was taken on Friday March 02, 2012 in southern Lincoln County, Tennessee about 7 miles south of Fayetteville.
Photographer: Angela Currey-Echols
This pic was taken last night near Lumberton Mississippi
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Average for last 90 days 2.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -8.0
We drink too much haterade
Is there some kind of feud going on here? Or is it school holidays, or something related to being Young?
For the requirement of general information and clarification of known facts:- Neapolitan is a normal person much like some of you will be when ya'll get a bit older. Needless to say we all make mistakes and even get misinterpreted from time to time!
The simple fact is that if weather was predictable then this blog would not exist! We could all just look in out almanacs and dress accordingly?
The thing with weather is that its down to you all to find/predict the truth, whilst of course being impartial observers.
The next cat 5 might be spawned from a change in the flight of a butterflys wing in the Congo and you'd never know it?
So its going to be cold for a while, at least tomorrows going to be interesting.
He's # 21 on my Iggy list
Debris burning may have caused blaze that destroyed over 30 buildings at Tamarack Lodge in Greenfield Park
GREENFIELD PARK, N.Y. A fire that destroyed more than 30 structures, including the former Tamarack Lodge, may have been caused by an intentional debris fire that burned out of control, according to the Ulster County Sheriff's Office.
The wind and the dry conditions just blew it and it was like a fire storm, Ellenville Fire Chief Howard Troue said Sunday afternoon. . . .
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This is just so aggravating for me, because not only did we have a red flag warning in effect from 11AM to 8PM Saturday, but we've practically been under some form of fire advisory since thursday. And the NWS explicitly state in their advisories,
"a red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditionsare either occurring now...Or will shortly. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity will create explosive fire growth potential."
Unfortunately, I think this is just an example of how much the general public is still disconnected from the day to day happenings of the NWS.
Nea I just wanted you to know that I think you a a great blogger and I respect your post. Unfortunatly I was brought in the middle of chaos this morning. I just don't want you to think I said anything about your post as i would never do that. Have a great day!
I'm to young
I havent seen anything trolly yet, are you sure you havent made a rush to judgement?
Many of you guys thought i was Cat5Hurricane,(whoever he is), and put me on your ignore lists.
I am very wary of labeling people as trolls and only have handles like slormtacker2k and xvryus2000 on there.
(Note that these are spelled differently from the legit handles.)
Non alcoholic margarita if there's such a thing.
Well, considering we are constantly exposed to a high level of radio waves everyday due to the sun, broadcast towers, satellites, etc. I seriously doubt that this statement is true. Can you provide any links to studies to back up this statement?
His first post was absolutely idiotic so I put him on my ignore list.
I see that Arctic Sea ice has shrunk dramatically over the past week, losing half a million kilometers of area, a very large amount for early April. In fact, ice area in the Arctic is now within just a few days of being even with last year's same-day measurements--and last year, as you'll recall, saw a new record low for area. The ice is going, going, going...
Do you have like a chrt.. I wanna see what it looks like right now
I agree I don't think swampdoooggg is a troll either. I think people like NEFL (handle) like to come in from the Bunker to cause trouble as many of them do from time to time while not producing anything knowledgable to the blog. I think it's sad the blog admins let this go on.
Wow! Find any Polyps up there??
Sweet beans
Wouldn't this pick up on any strong low pressure system, not just tornadic storms?? It's a great idea, but I'm thinking this was just a case of coincidence.
A large fire in Osceola National Forest has burned more than 10,000 acres and sent smoke wafting across Northeast Florida. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this view of the County Line Fire and its smoke on April 7, 2012.
The thick and potentially hazardous plume of smoke was blowing west when the image was taken at 3:45 p.m. local time (08:45 Universal Time). Another view of the smoke—captured by a MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite a day later—showed that winds had shifted and the plume had drifted both south and north.
On April 9th, the National Weather Service warned Floridians that smoke would likely move east and affect the Jacksonville area, with visibility reduced to one mile (and possibly less than that) close to the wildfire.
Just west of the fire, a number of pyrocumulus clouds are visible. Large fires can rapidly heat the air above a fire, and the heated air rises with smoke until water vapor in the atmosphere condenses into a puffy cloud. In satellite imagery, pyrocumulus clouds appear as patches of white capping otherwise dark columns of smoke.
In a wildfire season forecast, the Florida Forest Service pointed out that La Niña has had a significant drying impact in recent years; it has caused near-record warmth and unusually low levels of rainfall across the state. The forest service expects that temperature and rainfall will likely return to normal levels in the coming months as the effects of La Niña dissipate. Nonetheless, forecasters expect above-normal wildfire potential through the spring.
And note that this chart only shows data through day 97; since then, an additional 238,000 km2 of area has been lost.He's most definitely a troll--or, at least, has repeatedly engaged in trollish behavior. (Comment #420 is a perfect example, should you be curious).
i hate when the smoke drifts north to atlanta.
you walk outside and it is like a bad smelling barbeque. not to mention the haziness
Thanks dude , at least we arent way below average..
One more thing, I don't understand why we compare the current years to 1980 look at how above average it is
The cold 'Snap,' that the central US may experience for a while, will pass but much more interesting is the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, ( as Nea, the possibly non infallible, has just pointed out in post 467,)as this will not merely cause a passing problem but much more lightly a permanent metamorphosis from post ice age,(little ice age, if you like,) to a radical change in the way the Northern Hemispheres weather patterns behave, react to global weather and the way, we mere human observers view it all.
Then again we could consider the emergence of Aleutian Highs?
For the last 2 years there has been a fire in this same area. I agree the smoke from that fire is always extremely thick due to it being in a swampy area.
Dude, it's so close to average...
and you are sure u are not a troll?
First glance I thought it was a troll map for Florida
Average is History, which will be modified with the passage of time!
As it stands right now, in my disinterested third-party view, you are trolling. Here's why:
1. Your start date is VERY young... just a week old now. Yet you post like you've been here before.
2. Most normal people (i.e. non-trolls) don't make handles with lots of repeating letters, like swampdooooogggggggg. You don't see many reputable posters who have handles like weatherduuuuudddeeee.
3. Post # 420, 448, and 457 all shows signs of trolling.
4. You have an unhealthy obsession with a fairly well-respected member of the community, who posts pertinent and factual comments here. (Nea does post some editorial content, but by and large, the content of his posts are factual in nature, and not trolling).
So, based on the 4 above pieces of evidence, it is my judgement that you are a troll. Have a nice day.
Southeast Pacific is nice and toasty... Gulf of Mexico and the Northwest Caribbean are beginning to make their runs.
We can see that we are likely going to see above average SST in these areas in the upcoming season.
Apr-May-June
June-July-Aug
For nighttime lows, that is not particularly significant for April. The reason it is more significant is because of the major warm spell that tricked plants into an "early spring."
Neapolitan also said that it was possible to get "that cold" - referring to daily average temps near/below freezing all the way into the southeast US, not nighttime temps near freezing - but that it would require a significant amount of arctic air and a large trough to cause it. His justification was still correct - many times in the transition season, the models can seemingly overestimate how cold it is going to be at the surface when one is looking at 1000-500mb thickness.
We're pretty close. We were DEEP in a hole (one of the deepest in the area) from last year. I think whether we are caught up is really a judgement call, based on where you start the measurement. I can say that I haven't noticed any lingering drought effects - most of the impacts seem longer-term. That said, the water table is still low-ish in my area (you have to dig about 2-1/2 feet down to hit soil that is consistently wet - when I moved out here 2 years ago, you only had to go about a foot).
Exactly. One of the things both he and I pointed out is that there is very little snowpack in the upper midwest, so any cold air will quickly modify (warm), blunting the cold air. You can have 1000-500mb heights in the upper 530s, but surface temps in the 40s and 50s, with a sufficiently modified air mass. You can also have heights in the upper 540s, but surface temps below freezing, if you have a sufficiently deep inversion layer.
Believe today is our actual avg last frost date, though rule of thumb is the 15th. Big orchards (mainly peach) are further South, but still plenty of to west and north that could be severely affected. Will have to check for last chance at morels tonight. Hoping a southwesterly breeze pushes this away, but I doubt it.
Yes.
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