March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
for converting to torcon values it works
thats mathematically incorrect...
.15 in 25 mile radius would mean a .6 in a 50 mile radius they must do it so that the numbers dont go over 100%
"That's a good copy and number Houston'
Thanks,
I have been in (exposed) to marble to a bit bigger for a couple of minutes and it was not a large amount of stones. It still hurt. I can not imagine being in that unprotected.
TXC065-233-120115-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0002.120412T0039Z-120412T0115Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
739 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTH CENTRAL CARSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BORGER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE STINNETT...
SANFORD AND BORGER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
&&
LAT...LON 3587 10148 3576 10124 3557 10141 3565 10160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 209DEG 5KT 3569 10145
$$
KJS
no because 45% * 4 = 180, and teh 2011 superoutbreak certainly didnt get a TorCon of 18.
A 30% risk isnt a 12.
Your logic is flawed
Trust me, i am a math competition expert.
they aint launching a satellite. its a test to see how far they can launch a nuke.
They curve the numbers.
So they dont go over 100%
NBC's Richard Engel reports from Pyongyang, North Korea, ahead of the launch.
By Reuters
PYONGYANG, North Korea -- North Korea said Wednesday that it was injecting fuel into its controversial experimental rocket "as we speak" -- meaning it could blast off as early as Thursday.
If all goes to plan, the launch, which North Korea's neighbors and the West say is a disguised ballistic missile test, will take a three-stage rocket over a sea separating the Korean peninsula from China before releasing a satellite into orbit when the third stage fires over waters near the Philippines.
Regional powers also worry it could be the prelude to another nuclear test, a pattern the hermit state set in 2009.
"We don't really care about the opinions from the outside. This is critical in order to develop our national economy," said Paek Chang-ho, head of the satellite control center at the Korean Committee of Space Technology.
(edit)
We shoveled it into a garbage can to ice down a keg.
They did not read the ticker wrong. US 287 is closed, and per the local news, the highway department is reporting that there were indeed 2 to 4 feet of hail piled up in areas, and that 100 feet of the highway had been washed out due to the flooding.
One of the local stations has a blog with several pictures of the deep hail, including one that looks just like a blizzard. The hail was producing white-out conditions. There are also several pictures of small funnels from that cell and others.
Link
Interestingly, Amarillo has had similar events in the past. On July 8, 2010 a storm dumped 10 inches of rain in a couple of hours just northeast of the city. And in May of 1978, a pair of supercells dumped what was estimated to be over 20 inches of rain over a narrow swath near Canyon, Texas.
Magnitude7.0earthquake at 18.390n102.652w at a depth of 65.6kilometres(40.7miles)
~39miles(63kilometres)NW of LazaroCardenas(LZC)
and ~245miles(395kilometres)WSW of MexicoCity(MEX)
1014 ncstorm: Didn't Mexico City just have an earthquake a couple of weeks ago?
The 20March earthquake was a magnitude7.4 at 16.662n98.188w
about midway between Acapulco(ACA) and Oaxaca(OAX)
and ~199miles(321kilometres)SSE of MexicoCity
yes but twice an area doesnt have twice the probability, so you will always aprroach 100%, as your area gets larger and larger.
yes like the speed of light, you cant touch it haha
TWC TOR:CON Index
Looks like something from a Dread movie.
Would not want to be swept away in that at all at all!
the probability will look something like this, but this is from a birthday problem:
night all
Link
Had the first bush-fire threaten us yesterday here.
Good thing I was home to keep it from crossing the fire-trace.
Spent 3 hours out there, in a heat index of 96F, getting close to the flames from time to time.
A rather HOT way to spend an afternoon...
Hi pottery. Is Trinidad & Tobago going thru a drought? I have seen reports from some of the islands such as Guadeloupe,Antigua,Nevis among others that things are very dry.
This will be over with by Sunday?? I fly out to Tulsa again on Sunday and dont want to have to deal with this
I think tornadoes Saturday will be a little more than isolated like that graphic says; probably a pretty big event
That graphic just means tornadoes are possible anywhere in that area.
Get him on the blog:P
Nope, it'll last at least until the middle of next week.
But it specifically states isolated tornadoes
Yes...there there is a possibility of isolated tornadoes anywhere in that red area.
Are you expecting a bigger event tomorrow or Saturday?
2012-04-12 00:30:02 UTC
It depends on the strength and position of the Low Level Jet when Saturday rolls around. It looks like the two could be pretty evenly matched, or tomorrow may win by just a little bit.
The landfill fires are numerous today.. Janesville one maybe out. That one was assumed poisonous.
The Staten Island landfill fire yesterday that they were saying wasn't poisonous..well new concerns arose with a yellow cloud. Results of air samples down wind are now being asked to be released. There is 1000s of acres burning still in that area.
New landfill fire in Surprise, AZ today.. One in OH they are still battling from yesterday.
Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity
Thanks, and from the link
It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
its the 2012 luck of the draw
I don't think they were measuring the accumulation in a ditch or low place.
It's apparent that plows were needed to clear the hail off of the road on US287.
Plows.
Now figure, before the storm starts, you have hot, 110f to 120f asphault (or concrete) in the baking Sunlight, so the first several inches of hail on the road itself probably melted on contact and ran off...
...yet they still needed plows to clear the road from the ice that accumulated in the road...
And yes, I realize in a big pile of hail stones there is also a lot of empty space, air and liquid water that the stones will normally try to float on...
but they ended up using plows to clear the road from ice.
That's extremely much more than anything I've ever seen.
LASCO Image
www.solarham.com
I, for one, am not superstitious one bit. I'm much too analytical and logical to be superstitious. Personally, I find it absolutely absurd that old apartments around here don't have a 13th floor. It's a number WE created!
I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars
Then where do I figure? I'm starting to wonder if I even exist... ;) Maybe I'm in a parallel universe.
More like 99.9%.
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index