Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is that real?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we are about to witness..weather history this weekend, me I hope it fizzles out, alot of good people are going to be suffering come momnday morning if this pans out like they think its going to

There's the 60%

Quoting HrDelta:
I'm a student at OU. What does the situation look like for the rest of the night?

It's moving slow, but I think it's a matter of time before one of these works it's way up in that general direction.

If I lived up there right now I'd sure as heck stay glued to a radar graphic and a radio.


these cells spit out a tornado for a few minutes and then sort of recycle, so there might not be a lot of warning at all.

Repost...

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Now that would be incredible. Two named storms in April.

I beleive the 2nd system has about the same amount of chance as any other april system on a normal season. The system the models have been first indicating... Thats another story, it has a good chance in my mind.

Just made a quick blog on the possibility of Alberto next week..
Subtropical Storm Alberto?

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%

thats old


here the new

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%

Tornado probability not total severe. -_-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MOC053-101-159-195-150149-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
849 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR VALLEY CITY...BLUE LICK
...LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE


THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CRESTS MAY
VARY IF ACTUAL RAINFALL OR RUNOFF IS GREATER OR LESS THAN
ANTICIPATED.

LOCATION: BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY
FLOOD STAGE: 22.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 7.2 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY
FORECAST CREST: 22.5 FEET SUNDAY APR 15
AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO
FLOOD.

LOCATION: BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK
FLOOD STAGE: 24.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 10.7 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY
FORECAST CREST: 25.0 FEET MONDAY APR 16
AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

LOCATION: LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE
FLOOD STAGE: 15.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 2.3 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY
FORECAST CREST: 17.5 FEET SATURDAY APR 14
AT 18.0 FEET...SOME GRAVEL ROADS UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM
OTTERVILLE ARE UNDER WATER. IN ADDITION STATE HIGHWAY 135 MAY BE
OVERTOPPED BY FLOOD WATERS 2 MILES NORTH OF CLIFTON CITY.

LATER STATEMENTS...POSSIBLY WARNINGS...WILL BE ISSUED AS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

327 Grothar: ...an article by Dr. Forbes detailing the 10 worst tornados in US history.
The interesting thing is that not one from the Super Outbreak of 1974 was on the list.
504 aspectre: Just out of curiosity, does anyone know of tornadoes that struck outside of the continentalUS that would exceed any of the 10WorstUSTornadoes in terms of casualties&damage?
507 CybrTeddy: Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
525 Grothar: I bet you looked that up. :(

He's got me beat. I don't even know the combination of keywords that'd get me that kind of info on a search frontpage or so.

Quoting HrDelta:
I'm a student at OU. What does the situation look like for the rest of the night?

New tornado watch till 4 a.m. Long-tracking cells in SW OK have been tor warned on and off, headed across to central from SW OK. Corridor of good conditions for them. And increased low level winds may make them more likely to form tornadoes than earlier storms were. They may track similarly to the ones earlier, so if you're in Norman, keep on alert with a weather radio or TV or something like that.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is that real?

Of course it is real :P

It's from April 7, 2006.

Also, during last year's super outbreak, they started with the 30 and upped to 45 when storms started to initialize and become monsters.









Plus, with storms expected to initialize even later tomorrow than that outbreak, they might not have enough confidence to place a >30% risk area until storm initialization and it could be around the last outlook or even later until they really get going and the storm trends could be seen.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course it is real :P

It's from April 7, 2006.

I'm horrified that I missed this event of 60%!

Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for the update NCHurricane2009

Well...these guys have been doin the thorough job of talking about the severe weather and I've only been watching....no need to give credit to me...LOL

I did another update on the tropics...but understandably the severe wx is getting a lot of attention and rightfully so right now....

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'm horrified that I missed this event of 60%!

Ow wait! That was the outbreak that spawned an EF2 that hit my old farm in Newnan! Destroyed a ton of trees and fence posting...not to mention a utility shed.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
You know, Grothar there's a deal going on that only started in December called Weather Ready Nation. An outgrowth of last year's severe. Gov't agencies and "partners." Media being a big one. Purpose to get the word out to the public in ways they understand. Sounds like it's kicking into gear.

It is about time, don't you think. I wasn't of aware of that movement. Makes sense. I am familiar with the EAS though.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%

That's for all forms of severe. On day 1, after midnight - about 1 a.m. - they'll issue a day 1 for Saturday with specific probabilities for tors, wind and hail. I'm guessing a 45% tor prob in high risk areas.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course it is real :P

It's from April 7, 2006.

In fact, that outbreak was the only other one to ever receive a high risk a day in advance!

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Repost...

I beleive the 2nd system has about the same amount of chance as any other april system on a normal season. The system the models have been first indicating... Thats another story, it has a good chance in my mind.

Just made a quick blog on the possibility of Alberto next week..
Subtropical Storm Alberto?

Nice update...thanks hurricanedean07

Quoting 1900hurricane:

In fact, that outbreak was the only other one to ever receive a high risk a day in advance!

I wonder...

I know many of you are aware of this program. It could help save a lot of lives.


EAS program:

Link

The triplets look like they are more or less congealing into one.

Mount Etna is erupting again.

Quoting nigel20:

Nice update...thanks hurricanedean07

No problem

Quoting aspectre:
CybrTeddy: Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
525 Grothar: I bet you looked that up. :(

He's got me beat. I don't even know the combination of keywords that'd get me that kind of info on a search frontpage or so.

:)

We will definitely see the new type of warnings tomorrow.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141 000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
922 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT EXISTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN GET GOING.

THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OK
WILL MAKE IT OVER INTO EASTERN OK AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THEY
DO...LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...IF STORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OK END UP TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. STRONG
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
ROTATE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ON SATURDAY...INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS.

A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. DAMAGING
WINDS BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE. STORMS
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

Quoting LargoFl:
this afternoon the weather guy on cnn said that tomorrow there could be 100's of tornado's..

It is looking worse everytime they update it.

Quoting aspectre:
CybrTeddy: Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
525 Grothar: I bet you looked that up. :(

He's got me beat. I don't even know the combination of keywords that'd get me that kind of info on a search frontpage or so.

Bangladesh is so densely packed, any tornado or tropical cyclone will have horrific effects. Of course, Bangladesh is probably of the most hazard-prone nations on the planet. Well placed for both Tropical Cyclones and Tornadoes, and extremely close to active fault lines.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will definitely see the new type of warnings tomorrow.

Well Wikipedia already has a page for tomorrow. That is not good if you ask me.

The big rain event for Puerto Rico on Saturday and Sunday is imminent as the updated discussion mentions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...INDUCED LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...IN COMBINATION WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...GAVE WAY TO ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RAPID RIVER RISES...ALONG WITH URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. BY LATE EVENING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS HAD MOVED OFF OR CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. DURING THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS NOW
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
TO CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARDS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND AFFECT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATER OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND USHER COOLER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HOWEVER INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
INCREASE THE NORTH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

IN ADDITION...SHORT PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND DRIVEN SWELLS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON... PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION ON ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINES.
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARD MESSAGES.

Doesn't anyone think it odd that for the past 4 hours all severe weather in Oklahoma has spawned and moved along a straight corridor passing through Oklahoma City? One would think that the whole system would migrate some, and it will suddenly migrate in an hour or two.

The below site provides some pretty interesting observations and possible explanations for this lack of migration.

askwhy333.minus.com

Mmmm I don't feel wanted here.Interesting the models develop 2 sub-tropical systems.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm I don't feel wanted here.Interesting the models develop 2 sub-tropical systems.

Don't feel wanted? What makes you say that? LOL...

GFS 24 hours out. (Hey Taz, How old is this?)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The big rain event for Puerto Rico on Saturday and Sunday is imminent as the updated discussion mentions.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...INDUCED LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...IN COMBINATION WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...GAVE WAY TO ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RAPID RIVER RISES...ALONG WITH URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. BY LATE EVENING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS HAD MOVED OFF OR CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. DURING THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS NOW
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
TO CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARDS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND AFFECT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATER OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND USHER COOLER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HOWEVER INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
INCREASE THE NORTH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

IN ADDITION...SHORT PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND DRIVEN SWELLS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON... PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION ON ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINES.
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARD MESSAGES.

Interesting, the weather seems crazy just about everywhere these days.A big rain event seems possible for the Windward islands starting next Thursday according to the gfs and nogaps. Rainfall in April is usually the second or third lowest for the year.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
The triplets look like they are more or less congealing into one.

Hey, 1900. That map is 6 minutes old. Don't you have anything newer. By the way, were you born in 1900? I thought maybe we could have gone to school together.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 1900. That map is 6 minutes old. Don't you have anything newer. By the way, were you born in 1900? I thought maybe we could have gone to school together.

Nope, I was born in 1991 actually. I turn 21 in a little over two weeks. :P

Run away-worthy.

No, not really, it just warrants extreme attention to the weather tomorrow night.

Its not over just yet storm behind the newly formed line is looking like it wants to drop a tornado.

Quoting DDR:

Interesting, the weather seems crazy just about everywhere these days.A big rain event seemly like for the Windward islands starting next Thursday according to the gfs and nogaps. Rainfall in April is usually the second or third lowest for the year.

So far 2012 in San Juan,Puerto Rico 18.05 inches has falled and that is well above normal. (8.31 inches) All the unusual rainfall has fallen on the driest months of Febuary and March as you can see at link.

Link

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Run away-worthy:

Dang, that is one crazy hodograph!

I hope people in those areas that are going to be affected listen to the warnings and have their natural disaster kits ready.
In your kit you should have

First aid kit
Batteries
Cash$$
Flashlights
Canned goods
Noaa radio(or which ever one you have)
Important papers
Does a cell phone count?

Yeah, it's about that time again.

Epic hail core is back again.

Z0 72 dBZ 40,000 ft. 70 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance >4.00 in. 25 knots WSW (240)


I guess we'll see a tornado warning again in about 10 minutes.


Figure only reason hasn't done it again so far is the cells got too close together and may have robbed one another's inflow.

Quoting DDR:

Interesting, the weather seems crazy just about everywhere these days.A big rain event seems possible for the Windward islands starting next Thursday according to the gfs and nogaps. Rainfall in April is usually the second or third lowest for the year.

If you don't mind, where are you located? I'm located in Jamaica

Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm I don't feel wanted here.Interesting the models develop 2 sub-tropical systems.

did you just switch avatars. it changed right before my eyes.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its not over just yet storm behind the newly formed line is looking like it wants to drop a tornado.

Yes.

There is a cell WSW of Clinton/WNW of Hobart with a very severe hail core and possible hook forming right now.

Been watching it for a while, but it's on the boundary of the radar, so it's hard to get a good view of it.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dang, that is one crazy hodograph!

Yep.

We may see a 45% tornado probability issued tomorrow.

Quoting PedleyCA:


did you just switch avatars. it changed right before my eyes.

Yes :).

Is the tornado outbreak tomorrow going to be the worst in US history? I am not a big severe wx expert...but there is a lot of ominous talk on here tonight...