Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at the Iowa storm!

Amazing.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
217 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 213 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FARRAGUT...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESSEX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4077 9549 4081 9551 4087 9539 4091 9533
4090 9525 4085 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 237DEG 26KT 4080 9546

$$

BOUSTEAD


362

Southern Most cell has the flying saucer shaped base.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
207 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC123-141-141930-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120414T1930Z/
OSBORNE KS-MITCHELL KS-
207 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL AND EASTERN
OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 201 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIPTON...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...VICTOR...TIPTON...OSBORNE...PORTIS...DOWN S...CAWKER
CITY...GLEN ELDER AND SCOTTSVILLE.

THIS STORM IS RAIN WRAPPED WHICH WILL MAKE IDENTIFYING THE TORNADO
DIFFICULT. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO IS HEADING DIRECTLY TOWARDS TIPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

Tornado warning for a cell in Iowa.




TORNADO WARNING
IAC071-145-141945-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0002.120414T1917Z-120414T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
217 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 213 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FARRAGUT...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF TARKIO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESSEX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4077 9549 4081 9551 4087 9539 4091 9533
4090 9525 4085 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 237DEG 26KT 4080 9546

$$

BOUSTEAD

The Iowa cell is upgraded to a Tornado Warning.

Two beautiful tornadic supercells.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST SAT APR 14 2012

PRC001-081-083-141-142215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0125.120414T1919Z-120414T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
319 PM AST SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...UTUADO...ADJUNTAS AND LAS MARIAS

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 315 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN IN THE SOME AREAS AND ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 615 PM AST. IN ADDITION...QUICK RISES ALONG RIO GUAJATACA IN
LARES HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS QUICK RIVER RISES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6703 1825 6691 1834 6688 1832 6682
1832 6662 1817 6667 1822 6701

$$

ER

Iowa storm looks weaker in new frame

Anyone have a live streaming news network out of the high risk zone to watch? I've got the storm chaser webcams.

BTW they extended the PDS watch farther south to include the rest of Western OK.

These Kansas storms are crazy! They could produce some strong tornadoes.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Two beautiful tornadic supercells.

Bucklin better watch out!!

Good afternoon all!
What did I miss?

999 MAweatherboy1: Does anyone else think the big storm in Northeast Nebraska with the TVS should have a tornado warning?

Tornado warnings are issued when a tornado has been visually*spotted.
Systems with an extremely high probability of generating (or having) a tornado embedded within them are flagged with a tornado watch.

* Though local weathermen tend to call them when a tornado debris ball shows up on the radar.
And the NWS has shown an ever increasing tendency to say something like "A debris ball has been spotted on radar. There is probably a tornado nearby."

999
WFUS53 KGID 141925
TORGID
NEC129-169-142000-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0010.120414T1925Z-120414T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DESHLER...OR 38 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DESHLER...HEBRON...BELVIDERE...GILEAD AND ALEXANDRIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9780 4017 9788 4033 9737 4031 9736
4010 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 250DEG 27KT 4012 9773
HAIL 1.00IN

$$

Quoting aspectre:
999 MAweatherboy1: Does anyone else think the big storm in Northeast Nebraska with the TVS should have a tornado warning?

Tornado warnings are issued when a tornado has been visually*spotted.
Systems with an extremely high probability of generating (or having) a tornado embedded within them are flagged with a tornado watch.

* Though local weathermen tend to call them when a tornado debris ball shows up on the radar, and the NWS has shown an increasing tendency to do so.

not all tornado warnings have a visual tornado ... if radar indicates tornado then a warning is issued

Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon all!
What did I miss?

Quite a bit, tornadoes in kansas

Chaser feed. Link

Quoting aspectre:
999 MAweatherboy1: Does anyone else think the big storm in Northeast Nebraska with the TVS should have a tornado warning?

Tornado warnings are issued when a tornado has been visually*spotted.
Systems with an extremely high probability of generating (or having) a tornado embedded within them are flagged with a tornado watch.

* Though local weathermen tend to call them when a tornado debris ball shows up on the radar, and the NWS has shown an increasing tendency to do so.

Tornado warnings are also issued when a tornado is indicated by radar though

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


not all tornado warnings have a visual tornado ... if radar indicates tornado then a warning is issued

He said computer system (radar)

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Tornado warnings are also issued when a tornado is indicated by radar though

Which is why he said systems

Still very strong rotation with both Dodge City storms... I've gotta run for a while... Be back in an hour and a half or so... Make sure the storms save some excitement for when I get back!

Oh man!

Quoting Ameister12:
Oh man!

Could be ef3 tight rotation!

Damn. Southern storm has a funnel halfway to the ground.

The crazy talk weather modification analysis indicates the recent lull was due to a switching of the modification grid.

askwhy333.minus.com/mLbPPLykc

I expect bad things from this storm:

Storm moving towards Burdett is extremely dangerous.

A couple of other cells that aren't as pretty to look at are being tornado warned as well. These look like they are rain-wrapped.







This one is particularly nasty looking!

Quoting weatherh98:


Quite a bit, tornadoes in kansas

hopefully no major damage or injuries?

Oops. Someone already posted the counties added to the Oklahoma PDS watch. Thanks

A couple of the new ones along the dry line look like they could really get going rather soon.

Quoting nigel20:

hopefully no major damage or injuries?

Honesty I'm doubting everyone is alright

This one looks really bad.

bad day in weather

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141823Z - 142030Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN INTO
MID-AFTERNOON OWING TO A FEW APPARENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES:
1. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES ACROSS W TX THAT WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY AID IN STORM INITIATION. SFC WINDS HAVE
SLIGHTLY VEERED WEST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LAST
HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE MODESTLY SHARPENING WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. THE CUMULUS FIELD JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED PER
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPENING
CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS JUST
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO AID IN INITIATION.
2. A SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOTED 30-50 MILES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH ATTENDANT ASCENT AUGMENTED BY AN
EWD-MIGRATING...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERLAYS THE SECONDARY
MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THESE FEATURES MAY FOCUS INITIATION IN THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
3. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IS NOTED OVER WRN OK FROM ROGER MILLS
COUNTY SWD TOWARD WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THIS ZONE OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL MIXING RATES COULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BETWEEN
1930 AND 2100Z. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT
WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH
531 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH ACCORDING TO THE 17Z NORMAN RAOB...AND A
LARGE DEGREE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 0.5
KM...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE OF CONCERN...CONTINGENT ON
THE INITIATION OF STORMS. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR STRONGER
TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE ISSUANCE OF A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOT AS
GREAT.

ULTIMATELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
AN INCREASINGLY APPARENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW...OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE
WATCHES...POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35520075 36640081 36930060 36840013 36259953 36159861
36119725 35209714 34139728 33509810 33569963 34640038
35520075

Buffalo OK needs a tornado warning.

Southern most warned storm in NW OK is starting to rotate and continues to intensify. Could be our next Tornado Warning of the day.

Maybe something interesting for Florida in a few days..

A request please, while I appreciate people posting those GRLevel3 and other maps of tornado velocities, given the number of tornadoes and storms around today, please post the location of the storm and/or radar it is found on. Yes, the maps have small cities shown but it isn't always obvious where it is. Plus it helps correlate what storm you are talking about. I'm just trying to keep track of all the storms and as you know in an outbreak like this with many tornadoes it can be somewhat difficult or annoying.

Ugh. Look at Kansas. Sheesh, Louise. They're still rebuilding Greensburg. That cell better stay away.

1066 Thundercloud01221991: not all tornado warnings have a visual tornado ... if radar indicates tornado then a warning is issued

But until the recent introduction of dual-polarity radar, the existent single-polarity radar has not been able to spot a tornado with any vaguely reasonable expectation of certainty. (I think that single polarity radar still dominates over dual-polarity in coverage area).
Even with dual polarity:
There's a strong tendency to wait for a debris ball before saying "There's probably a tornado there."
And an extremely strong tendency to wait for a visual sighting before saying "There is a tornado there." Offhand, I can't think of a single tornado being officially called before a visual sighting has been made.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 141928Z - 142000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

A LARGE...AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN MITCHELL COUNTY
KANSAS IS INTERACTING WITH A NWD-MOVING SFC WARM FRONT. THE
BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...BACKGROUND SSELY INFLOW OF 20-25 KT PER SFC OBS...WILL
SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR...POSSIBLY LONGER. THE SUPERCELL MAY REORGANIZE AS A
LARGER MASS OF CONVECTION MOVES NEWD FROM LINCOLN COUNTY...WITH
ADDITIONAL MESOCYCLONES POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN FLANKS
OF MERGING CONVECTION THAT MAY APPROACH CLOUD AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY EVEN FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39289710 38869750 38829830 39209859 39479856 39809839
39939797 39939750 39769701 39289710

Montgomery, Iowa (tornado warning, severe hail)

And Cloud, KS (severe hail)

To clarify I mean where and when the location isn't obvious due to reference from a major or well known city instead of the smaller towns.

The 45% tornado risk got shifted south.