Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

+47

A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

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101. GeorgiaStormz 5:46 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
the wording from the SPC for the southern part of the high risk area doesnt really impress me. The upper part sounds worse. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7162

102. nigel20 5:47 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
April 12, 2011 April 12, 2012 Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535

103. JNCali 5:49 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1031

104. nigel20 5:51 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: morning nigel! How are you weatherh98? Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535

105. evilpenguinshan 5:53 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
not one, but TWO high risk swaths on the 2-day outlook? This is gonna be crazy. Member Since: March 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

106. nigel20 5:56 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting evilpenguinshan: not one, but TWO high risk swaths on the 2-day outlook? This is gonna be crazy. Seems as we'll be seeing an extremely dangerous situation on Saturday Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535

107. RTSplayer 5:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: This is the result. You guys could be in Dust bowl type conditions by July. Second order positive feedback. I wonder how much this is going to effect lake levels due to increased evaporation? Convection down wind from the lakes? Could be a big deal if this starts happening every year. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

108. ncstorm 5:58 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
From Wichita NWS Discussion..these people are going to have to ride out terrible weather at night SAT: COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING ON SAT. ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG A LINE FROM KHYS TO NEAR KP28. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE FROM KSLN TO KICT WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 70 KTS...PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 400-500 M2/S2 SUGGEST LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...WHICH LOOKS IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES TOWARDS 00Z/SAT...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THEN. WITH THIS SAID...NAM/WRF FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KICT AT 03Z/SAT LOOKS LIKE THE PROVERBIAL "LOADED GUN"...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES LOOKING VERY LIKELY SAT EVENING FROM KSLN TO KICT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST COULD SEE A TORNADO OUTBREAK SAT EVENING. A LARGE CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET SAT EVENING...AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND CIN VALUES REMAIN LOW WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR A LONG TRACK TORNADO CONTINUING LONG AFTER DARK. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TORNADOES AFTER DARK SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF LIFE. SPC COORDINATED WITH THE LOCAL OFFICES AND THEY HAVE GONE WITH A RARE DAY2 HIGH RISK ACROSS THE AREA. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

109. Neapolitan 5:58 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153

110. ncstorm 6:02 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
California..that low is powerful Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

111. nigel20 6:06 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: I ran across this great time exposure from last night's thunderstorm in San Francisco showing eight separate lighting bolts hitting the Golden Gate Bridge: Click for larger image: Explanation here. That's a nice image Nea... Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535

112. cyclonekid 6:11 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

113. txjac 6:18 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Puerto Rico looks to be getting some bad weather right now. Hope all of our friends are doing well Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566

114. LargoFl 6:19 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
at least someone in florida got some rain.................FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 120 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 FLC011-131915- /O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0004.120413T1720Z-120413T1915Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ 120 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT LAUDERDALE... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT * AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY METRO AREAS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FT. LAUDERDALE. IN ADDITION TO THE CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS...PREVIOUS HEAVY SHOWERS RESULTED IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS AND DITCHES. LAT...LON 2615 8021 2614 8015 2614 8012 2608 8012 2607 8015 2607 8021 $$ 60 Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

115. LargoFl 6:22 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
anyone here in fort lauderdale etc? they are also watching out for funnel clouds, be careful down there.........................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 202 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172-173-131830- COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL 202 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR... BROWARD COUNTY NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND NORTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. * THE STORM WILL AFFECT... INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27... WESTON... SAWGRASS MILLS MALL... DEERFIELD BEACH... INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD... SOUTHWEST RANCHES... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS. LAT...LON 2584 8014 2585 8015 2588 8015 2584 8017 2582 8017 2580 8014 2582 8017 2580 8018 2591 8061 2649 8064 2675 8050 2654 8004 TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 317DEG 13KT 2613 8043 $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

116. hydrus 6:24 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

117. Tropicsweatherpr 6:25 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting txjac: Puerto Rico looks to be getting some bad weather right now. Hope all of our friends are doing well Yes,we will have another big rain event this weekend,nothing new so far this year as it has been a wet start. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8160

118. OrchidGrower 6:31 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Re: #88 -- an outflow boundary has appeared. Wish it were coming to Ft. Myers/Cape area! Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

119. ncstorm 6:32 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
First Tornado Watch Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

120. ncstorm 6:33 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK AS THE CAP HAS WEAKENED WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SUBTLE...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AS IT RETREATS NWWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL FAVOR FORMATION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

121. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:34 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 TORNADO WATCH 160 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-051 -053-055-057- 065-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-113-117-11 9-137-141-149- 140200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0160.120413T1830Z-120414T0200Z/ OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON JACKSON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC155-197-485-487-140200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0160.120413T1830Z-120414T0200Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN WICHITA WILBARGER ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290

122. nigel20 6:35 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting hydrus: Whats up hydrus...hopefully people will heed all the warnings to reduce the level of injuries or death Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4535

123. BrowardJeff 6:38 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: anyone here in fort lauderdale etc? they are also watching out for funnel clouds, be careful down there. I'm actually in the Sawgrass Mills area, which they specifically call out in the advisory. Sitting in a cube farm by a window, watching the rain. It's calming down right now..and the storm advisory seems to have been allowed to expire. The flood advisory out east is still valid. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 766

124. cyclonekid 6:38 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

125. jeffs713 6:40 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm: SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025. tops at 550 = 55,000 feet. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

126. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:40 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Two high risks on a Day 2 Outlook...simply amazing. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290

127. Tropicsweatherpr 6:41 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
The first advisory of the big rain event expected in PR. FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 230 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 PRC007-025-035-041-045-129-132030- /O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0118.120413T1830Z-120413T2030Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/ CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR- 230 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES... IN PUERTO RICO CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...COMERIO...SAN LORENZO AND AGUAS BUENAS * UNTIL 430 PM AST * AT 224 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN INTERIOR MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ACROSS CAGUAS AND CIDRA. AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. && LAT...LON 1826 6616 1815 6594 1809 6599 1818 6624 $$ EM Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8160

128. RTSplayer 6:42 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Wow. Strongest cell labeled "DO" severe hail, headed straight for Oklahoma City. I mean right down the pipe too. I think that's the one that prompted the watch box already. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

129. entrelac 6:49 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
So will the storms tomorrow be slow movers or will they be screaming across the Plains at 60mph? Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

130. GeorgiaStormz 6:49 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
cloud tops to 40k now Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7162

131. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:51 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting entrelac: So will the storms tomorrow be slow movers or will they be screaming across the Plains at 60mph? The latter. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290

132. RTSplayer 6:55 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Vil on the two strongest cells are 55 and 60 now. Already up to 2 inches max hail. Plus they got dual pol radars now, so it's a good estimate. I guess that means it's started for today. Nasssty stuff. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

133. LargoFl 6:55 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting BrowardJeff: I'm actually in the Sawgrass Mills area, which they specifically call out in the advisory. Sitting in a cube farm by a window, watching the rain. It's calming down right now..and the storm advisory seems to have been allowed to expire. The flood advisory out east is still valid. ok thanks, I'm glad someone is finally getting some rain..partly cloudy here right now with the sea breeze, but not a drop here Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

134. entrelac 6:58 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The latter. Well that's just fabulous /sarcasm. Time to get on the phone and make sure the family knows since they all live in the High Risk areas. Though, I'm sure they know and I'm preaching to the choir. Aside - I am the only member of my extended family to not have experienced a direct hit or near miss by an EF-4 or EF-5. No bonus points have been awarded for the hurricanes I lived through or the EF-1 I experienced. All the historic tornadoes that have been discussed here recently (Wichita Falls, the Moore, OK tornadoes, etc...) I have photos, bits of former family homes and lots of stories about. They're in the genealogy box for the next generations to read about. Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

135. LargoFl 7:03 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
vHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1244 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098 -101>106-141745- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MA RIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-P OLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRI GHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONAL D-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 1244 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED HAIL RISK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. LIMITED FLOODING RISK. ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK. DISCUSSION... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH WILL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINES OF STORMS THAT PUSH IN FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLOODING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A TABLE ROCK LAKE TO ROUND SPRING LINE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING MAY BE IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION OF CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS... AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS. THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADOES LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT THREAT MAY INCREASE IF GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. AT THIS TIME... THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS THAT IT WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO TABLE ROCK LAKE LINE. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO VIENNA LINE. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) $$ SCHAUMANN Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

136. MississippiWx 7:04 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: the wording from the SPC for the southern part of the high risk area doesnt really impress me. The upper part sounds worse. It's a high risk on Day 2. It's impressive. Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8559

137. RTSplayer 7:05 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Cell is REALLY intensifying now. G0 Caddo OK 71 dBZ 37,000 ft. 55 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 27 knots SW (226) that's going to come very, very close to Oklahoma City. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

138. weatherh98 7:07 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: Cell is REALLY intensifying now. G0 Caddo OK 71 dBZ 37,000 ft. 55 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 27 knots SW (226) that's going to come very, very close to Oklahoma City. I see 65dbz where do you find this Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

139. hydrus 7:07 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting nigel20: Whats up hydrus...hopefully people will heed all the warnings to reduce the level of injuries or death Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14287

140. Tropicsweatherpr 7:08 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
No change to the big rain event in PR on the latest discussion. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 237 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY. AFTER THE FROPA A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MAS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK. DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE/SINK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND LASTING POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION TO THE PASS OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOCUSING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER THAT. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8160

141. evilpenguinshan 7:08 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Link live dashcam footage from severe warned cell approaching OKC - wall cloud clearly visible Member Since: March 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

142. ncstorm 7:09 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

143. weatherh98 7:09 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: Cell is REALLY intensifying now. G0 Caddo OK 71 dBZ 37,000 ft. 55 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 27 knots SW (226) that's going to come very, very close to Oklahoma City. Looks like right over or slighty north of okc Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

144. LargoFl 7:10 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

145. LargoFl 7:10 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

146. Patrap 7:12 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Earthquake in Lake Toba 2 days ago. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403

147. RTSplayer 7:12 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting weatherh98: I see 65dbz where do you find this At the top of wunderground go to "Radar". If you scroll down without touching anything, there is a spreadsheet usually listed roughly in the order of the most intense warned storms in the nation. this one is at the top, and is the one closest to Oklahoma City. It gets updated every few seconds, so it may have already changed since last time I read it. Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

148. weatherh98 7:13 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: At the top of wunderground go to "Radar". If you scroll down without touching anything, there is a spreadsheet usually listed roughly in the order of the most intense warned storms in the nation. this one is at the top, and is the one closest to Oklahoma City. It gets updated every few seconds, so it may have already changed since last time I read it. kk thx Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

149. MississippiWx 7:15 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
I know all of the attention is on the Plains severe weather outbreak, as it should be, but don't forget about our little subtropical system in the Atlantic. It's only 3 days out now: 12z Euro: Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8559

150. ncstorm 7:16 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
It just got dark on that chaser video.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

151. weatherh98 7:17 PM GMT on April 13, 2012
1 L0 Kiowa OK, 66 dBZ, 35,000 ft., 58 kg/m², 70% Chance severe hail, 100% Chancehail, 1.50 in. per hour, 19 knots (movement),SW (227) Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

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