Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Zappy:


They didn't didn't go off. Probably because of a lightning strike or power outage.

Where I live, we don't even HAVE tornado sirens, at least I have never heard it go off if there are sirens.

Remains of Tornado siren at Woodward

From:
http://twitpic.com/photos/MikeOKwx

I gotta say it seems that particular storm was weirdly malevolent.... a lone rogue storm.

April 14, 2011

April 14, 2012

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you know if those were mobile homes or well-constructed buildings?

The caption says "Hideaway Trailer Park", so mobile homes. The bricks you see were the foundation they are placed upon.

Quoting RitaEvac:

That's quite a bit of damage...where is this?

April 14 SST Anomaly

nigel20, although the sea temperatures look comparable - last year was considered an especially warm year to begin with.

Forecast overlay vs. reports

by MARK ELLINWOOD on APRIL 15, 2012
This event was forecast fairly well overall, with plenty of lead time from the SPC to make sure as many people could be informed as possible. That being said, let's take a look at the actual verification of tornado reports compared to their risk area issued in their 1630z update (based on reports as of 1630z today).





http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/04/15/april-14-20 12-outbreak-forecast-verification/

bbl

Looks like we may be dealing with Alberto this week.

CMC


EMCWF (Ensemble Mean)


EMCWF (Operational)


GFS


NGP

FYI... live coverage from KSIB radio in Creston, IA, of the tornado that hit that area last night:
http://www.ksibradio.com/UPDATE16.mp3

NWS is heading from Des Moines to Creston to survey; storm was under severe thunderstorm warning during tornado affecting the town.

Quoting MZT:
nigel20, although the sea temperatures look comparable - last year was considered an especially warm year to begin with.

This years TCHP is currently higher though
April 14, 2011

April 14, 2012

12z ECMWF running, at 24 hours ''Alberto'' begins to develop, much stronger on Monday than predicted at the 00z.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
I probably screwed Hudson up.  I was watching that KSN live feed last night.  They showed the velocity radar with the a strong couplet traveling directly through Hudson.  They also had spotters confirmed a large wedge tornado was on the ground hear Hudson too.    When I commented on that Hudson was gone.  I figured it was.  The TV reporters where commenting the same thing.  I  haven't heard any concrete yet with storm reports.  I am scrolling through them now.
So far I haven't seen anything posted on damage relating to Hudson KS.  

Its all good ILwthrfan...Your posts are always legitimate. I was wondering if we had a troll or something, and I did not have time this morning to read all the way back. I am sure the folks in Hudson are glad they were missed by the tornady..:)

Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF running, at 24 hours ''Alberto'' begins to develop, much stronger on Monday than predicted at the 00z.

It would be quite a difficult cold to warm core transition. Rarely do we see these type of feature develop in the off-season.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF running, at 24 hours ''Alberto'' begins to develop, much stronger on Monday than predicted at the 00z.

Invest 91L later today?

Yesterday's outbreak was very incredible. Very sad to hear that people ended up dieing in Woodward.

Here is some awesome footage of the wedge tornado SW of Salina.
Link

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Invest 91L later today?

Probably tomorrow.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Invest 91L later today?

More like afternoon tomorrow.

NHC isn't going to over-hype something, and this thing still has a very long way to go to become tropical or even sub-tropical.

Models are good, but verifying isn't always the same.

Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks like we may be dealing with Alberto this week.

CMC


EMCWF (Ensemble Mean)


EMCWF (Operational)


GFS


NGP

Wow now they re all in agreement! That means I'll give it a 60% chance that this happens

Gotta watch this area.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Invest 91L later today?

whats up tropicsweatherpr...what are thr reports from Puerto Rico?
Here in Jamaica we had some light flooding from rains over the past two days and rain is in the forecast for today as well

They are already watching it.

Quoting nigel20:

whats up tropicsweatherpr...what are thr reports from Puerto Rico?
Here in Jamaica we had some light flooding from rains over the past two days and rain is in the forecast for today as well

Good afternoon. The rain is gone and now drier weather is on tap for most of this week.

Euro seems to be forecasting 850mb wind speed of around 74mph, so that translates to like 65mph at the surface.



But I have a hunch that's an over-estimate.


the highest barb I found in the GFS for 10m "observation height" winds was a single 40kts barb.

there were quite a few 30kts barbs and a few 35kts barbs.

40kts is 46mph

So even GFS is forecasting a name-worthy system, as 35kts is naming strength for a TS.

Probably ends up being more like 45 to 50mph tops.

Must admit, I've never seen the models this consistent, this long on a potential cyclone out of hurricane season.

Heck, it's rare to get them in such good agreement in hurricane season.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon. The rain is gone and now drier weather is on tap for most of this week.

That's good news.....hopefully we'll get some dry conditions as well because the ground is getting saturated

I have a friend that attends the University of North Carolina Asheville and he said this:

"Hmmm, looking at the latest data and models, I'm wondering if the moderate shouldn't be a high... The shear parameters and wind fields are amazing near the low. Directional shear also looks to be much more than projected yesterday. IMHO, a 30% hatched tornado is not out of the question."

OPC shows the Atlantic system as a Frontal Cyclone in their 24, 48 and 96 hour surface forecasts.


OceanSat

225 Ameister12: Gotta watch this area.

I find myself wondering why folks have gotta be so cryptic about the photos they post.
So exactly where on Neptune is that?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Must admit, I've never seen the models this consistent, this long on a potential cyclone out of hurricane season.

Heck, it's rare to get them in such good agreement in hurricane season.

Whats upp CybrTeddy?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF running, at 24 hours ''Alberto'' begins to develop, much stronger on Monday than predicted at the 00z.

Cybr,how strong it is on this 12z run?

Quoting aspectre:
225 Ameister12: Gotta watch this area.

I find myself wondering why folks have gotta be so cryptic about the photos they post.
So exactly where on Neptune is that?

30N 53W


It's sort of a mid-level circulation mixed in with that front.

Supposedly it's going to get cut off and become Sub-tropical or even tropical.

We'll see.

It's not like we've never seen that happen before in other locations or anything, but the water up there is only 21C to 22C.

It's got a lot of work to do before getting a name.

230 CybrTeddy: Must admit, I've never seen the models this consistent, this long on a potential cyclone out of hurricane season.
Heck, it's rare to get them in such good agreement in hurricane season.

It's a conspiracy. Idle algorithms are the Devil's workshop.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
OPC shows the Atlantic system as a Frontal Cyclone in their 24, 48 and 96 hour surface forecasts.

Not surprising.

It's up in the air though whether it actually separates from the front.

Damage in Woodward (From AP):





And Wichita:







------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

Just wow...

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cybr,how strong it is on this 12z run?

Starts the frontal low out at 996 mb.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cybr,how strong it is on this 12z run?

The 850mb winds is widespread 30m/s but does not make 35m/s.

So I used 33m/s as an estimate of max winds at 850mb, and then calculated down to the surface.

If I'm reading the map properly, It looks like the CoC may be at 1000mb or even just below 1000mb at 0000UTC on the 17 (which is 7p.m. central time tomorrow).

It definitely does not go as low as 995mb on the Euro or GFS though.


the Canadian takes it to 1000mb at 7a.m. central tomorrow, then 999mb at 7p.m. central tomorrow, then 1001mb at 7a.m. central the following day.


So they all seem to agree low 1000's to high 990's mb pressure.


Respectable numbers for any April invest.

12Z GFS has the Atlantic System at 52kt, 1005mb in 24 hrs.

TG, 0002, 2012041512_F000_292N_0499W_FOF, 2012041512, 03, GFSO, 024, 342N, 495W, 52, 1005

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z GFS has the Atlantic System at 52kt, 1005mb in 24 hrs.

TG, 0002, 2012041512_F000_292N_0499W_FOF, 2012041512, 03, GFSO, 024, 342N, 495W, 52, 1005

Wait, how did you get that?

On the graphical output of the GFS for the Atlantic that Wunderground links to I couldn't find a barb that strong.

Are you looking at 10m winds or 850mb winds?

Watch it be designated as an invest and then the NHC decides not to upgrade it. Or it becomes a depression but fails to reach the name level. People on here would flip, lol.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z GFS has the Atlantic System at 52kt, 1005mb in 24 hrs.

TG, 0002, 2012041512_F000_292N_0499W_FOF, 2012041512, 03, GFSO, 024, 342N, 495W, 52, 1005

I hope that verifies... It would be pretty cool to see a strong STS in the middle of the Atlantic in the middle of April

Quoting BahaHurican:
bbl

???

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
They are already watching it.

any chance this goes into the gulf around that big high?

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not surprising.

It's up in the air though whether it actually separates from the front.

No Pun Intended.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Wait, how did you get that?

On the graphical output of the GFS for the Atlantic that Wunderground links to I couldn't find a barb that strong.

Are you looking at 10m winds or 850mb winds?

Surface, it is from the Text Track File of the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page

Quoting wxgeek723:
Watch it be designated as an invest and then the NHC decides not to upgrade it. Or it becomes a depression but fails to reach the name level. People on here would flip, lol.

Watch it become some rare April hurricane or not even get designated as an invest.