Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Shaun Tanner, 6:50 AM GMT on April 15, 2012 | +36 |

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Watch it become some rare April hurricane or not even get designated as an invest.
Ridiculously negligible.
less than 1%.
That is exactly what is likely to happen. One thing to bear in mind that even if the system gets below 1000mb, it could still have a front attached - which is likely. Also, if it doesn't become warm-core... same situation.
Many people on here seem to forget that it isn't just about pressure or winds... it's also about the overall environment, other weather features (like fronts), and the nature of the system itself. Just like SSTs aren't the only factor in TC development, pressure and winds aren't the only factor in whether a storm gets named.
I don't think it will be invested, but that is the Hurricane Specialist at the NHC decision. TAFB and OPC are showing it as a Frontal Cyclone. If it is invested, then the microwave data may be able to show if it is baroclinic or not.
Absolutely zero.
Shear would shred it, among other things. This isn't august.
Sub-tropical Hurricane Alberto!
Why won't it be invested? Every single model shows a sub-tropical storm within 36 hours
I disagree, I don't think downtown areas would fare very well during a strong tornado, on top of that you have more material to become dangerous flying debris or building material to crush people.
Now considering the time which the tornado hit, downtown areas may mean less deaths late at night because there would be less people, but I assure you a downtown area could mean mass loss of life during afternoon commuting hours. The strongest downtown buildings would still be shredded apart even if the main structural frame holds intact. I think you are forgetting just what a high end tornado is capable of doing, I wouldn't put too much hope in any building above ground when it comes to high end tornadoes. Buildings frequently fail before their supposed standards. The Hospital in Joplin is about as strong of a structure as you are going to find, it didn't even take a direct hit from the tornado, yet it still was a total loss even with the structural frame remaining mostly intact.
The Hospital in Joplin is what would happen to the strongest downtown structures, but even then, most of the commercial sector is composed of high rise building with massive amounts of glass that are not as strong as the hospital was in Joplin, an EF4 to EF5 range tornado would leave many of them with very heavy damage or total loss.
Because it is frontal in nature, and its over rather cold water.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1007 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
.THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW HOURS
OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FLZ048-049-051-052-160000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0020.120415T1700Z-120416T0000Z/
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
1007 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
* AFFECTED AREA...MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...D E
SOTO...CHARLOTTE...LEE.
* WIND...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
* HUMIDITY...30 TO 35 PERCENT.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.
&&
$$
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA...SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151856Z - 152030Z
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT
30 MILES SE OF SIOUX FALLS SD...WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING ENEWD FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI. INHIBITION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH THE MODIFIED
MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL 18Z RAOB ACCOUNTING FOR SFC OBS IN THE WARM
SECTOR INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NEAR-ZERO
CINH. A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF CONFLUENCE ALIGNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIALLY BECOMING
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 1930Z AND 21Z AS
DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO THE EAST. ALREADY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MODEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BANDS OF CUMULUS
NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WRN IA. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPER
CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SVR GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-70 KT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE SFC
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2012
Attached to a front. Beven just published a excellent paper on the subject.
Oh so it's possible it could become an STS without being invested?
In theory. But it also would need to be detached from the front to be an STS.
In other words... don't get your hopes up for a named storm.
Possible?, I guess if NHC went straight to declaring a depression or STS without initiating an invest, yes. Normally they will declare an invest to gather data before taking that step.
Ok... I've never had very high hopes for this one but with all the model consistency it seems to be an increasing possibility.
In April 2003,Ana detached from front and became a Sub-Tropical and then Tropical Storm.
Bear in mind what models everyone is looking at... MSLP. Mean Surface Level Pressure.
That doesn't show wind vectors, precipitation, or frontal boundaries. All of those are important to whether a system is named.
All the models are saying is that a cyclone of some sort is likely to form. That cyclone could be a baroclinic one (attached to a front, driven by temperature differences), tropical (warm core), or subtropical (not attached to a front, but not fully warm core).
Based on how, where, and when the system is expected to form... my bet is on a baroclinic one.
It also started southwest of Bermuda, in a different type of environment.
234 aspectre: I find myself wondering why folks have gotta be so cryptic about the photos they post.
So exactly where on Neptune is that?
237 RTSplayer: 30N 53W ... It's sort of a mid-level circulation mixed in with that front.
Supposedly it's going to get cut off and become Sub-tropical or even tropical.
Thanks. I was wrong even on the general area: thought the AOI*center was farther northwest
MEO is RoanokeIsland,NorthCarolina; CAT is CatIsland,Bahamas; and BDA is Bermuda
* Area Of Interest
Ok, I found it.
Thanks.
Yeah that would be legit TS I guess.
CMC even takes it down to 997mb. LOL.
That would be really rare event I guess.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
223 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
NEC107-152000-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120415T2000Z/
KNOX NE-
223 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY...
AT 219 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF VERDIGRE...OR 27 MILES EAST OF ONEILL...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4261 9814 4256 9802 4245 9804 4243 9811
4245 9818 4256 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 179DEG 24KT 4252 9812
$$
DEWALD
No it's gonna hit Florida... DOOM
I'm kidding there's almost no shot
Woodward looks pretty trashed
Yeah that one was probably EF-4
I wouldn't doubt it
NEC107-152030-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0009.120415T1930Z-120415T2030Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
230 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 227 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOS. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR VERDIGRE...OR 31 MILES EAST OF ONEILL...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A VERY BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
1 MILE SOUTH OF VERDIGRE AT 227 PM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERDIGRE...NIOBRARA...SANTEE AND VERDEL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4283 9815 4276 9801 4277 9794 4280 9790
4287 9786 4285 9776 4256 9795 4244 9809
4244 9823 4244 9824 4259 9829 4288 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 176DEG 22KT 4261 9807
$$
DEWALD
We could use some rain here too in CT. We're in a severe drought, and I expect it to turn to an extreme drought with the next Drought Monitor.
1112 hours
66722 minutes
4003327 seconds
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BON HOMME COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TYNDALL...OR 23 MILES
WEST OF YANKTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SCOTLAND AROUND 325 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4285 9774 4290 9800 4317 9785 4317 9773
4317 9767 4316 9764 4310 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 199DEG 29KT 4295 9784
$$
MJF
That makes this map about as useless as anything the NWS uses
There are some small showers popping up in the Houston metro area but that's about it for now, I'm wondering a little myself what's going on.
VIA Weather Channel on Twitter: NWS Wichita: Prelim. EF4 #tornado near Kanopolis Lake, KS. A farmstead was decimated, trees stripped of bark, roads scoured.
Won't surprise me if this is updated to EF5.
it could go higher
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
TORNADO WATCH 178 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
IAC033-037-041-059-063-067-081-089-109-131-147-189 -191-195-
160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAY
DICKINSON EMMET FLOYD
HANCOCK HOWARD KOSSUTH
MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH
MNC003-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-039-043-045-047 -049-053-055-
059-063-067-079-081-083-085-091-093-099-101-103-10 9-123-127-129-
131-139-141-143-147-157-161-163-165-169-171-173-16 0400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO
COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON
ISANTI JACKSON KANDIYOHI
LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON
MARTIN MCLEOD MEEKER
MOWER MURRAY NICOLLET
OLMSTED RAMSEY REDWOOD
RENVILLE RICE SCOTT
SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WINONA WRIGHT
YELLOW MEDICINE
WIC005-011-017-019-033-035-053-063-091-093-095-107 -109-119-121-
160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0178.120415T2040Z-120416T0400Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DUNN EAU CLAIRE
JACKSON LA CROSSE PEPIN
PIERCE POLK RUSK
ST. CROIX TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...FSD...
That is a 5 day precip total.
The model is probably assuming S. Texas and Louisiana will get some rain from the surface low that is supposed to develop over the bay of Campeche.
Then again, the previous surface low sort of just died over Mexico and never did anything anyway.
Yeah, I checked again, and not all of the models' latest runs are out yet, but some of the ensembles had a weak, pop-up surface low off the coast of Louisiana on the 17th.
Given the unseasonable water temperatures are about a month ahead of schedule for temperature, I guess that's not entirely out of the question.
That could explain some of the rain in Louisiana and Texas.
This tornado looked very powerful on radar last night
EDIT: I am unsure if this is the exact tornado that was rated EF4. Couple of tornado was in Ellsworth/Kanopolis Lake area yesterday.
Not very detailed yet. Just EF4 rating and what's the damage is like. This damage details sounds like it could easily be updated to EF5, though...
Link
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