Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.

Quoting jeffs713:

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.

I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.

Quoting jeffs713:

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.

Yea, this is what they had her doing with Houston Texans cheerleaders

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.

this surely is something we have to watch very closely come tomorrow, we wished for rain..now we are going to get it..even if its only 3 -4 inches, thats alot in one day huh..

Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.

Right!?

I would say where the SPC has the slight risk is where a moderate risk maybe issued so S FL watchout!

Quoting emcf30:


Trust me, you will get all the warnings from the NWS if they are warranted.

Oh, no doubt about that. But the joke in SF is we often get the warning after the storm has past.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May look something like this.

oh boy

ever hear of GeoMagnetic reversals?...................Link

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May look something like this.

Storm of the Centuryesque?

Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.

I'm not, actually. I'm judging based upon her posted resume, website and current job. There is no mention of a degree anywhere (on KHOU's site, her site, or anywhere else I've found her info). If someone was a TV weather personality, and had a degree... You'd be sure to post it.

Here is an excerpt from the AMS website regarding the seal of approval (bolded emphasis is mine):

"What is the AMS Seal of Approval?

The AMS Seal of Approval was launched in 1957 as a way to recognize on-air meteorologists for their sound delivery of weather information to the general public. Among radio and television meteorologists, the AMS Seal of Approval is sought as a mark of distinction. To date, the Society has awarded more than 1,400 Seals of Approval.

How does a broadcast meteorologist obtain the Seal of Approval?

The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. If the applicant meets these criteria they are awarded the AMS Seal of Approval and can display the Seal on the air. All current Sealholders may retain and display their Seals as long as they pay their membership and renewal fees each year and complete certain professional development requirements every five years.

How do these two programs differ?

The main difference between the two programs is education and the exam. To apply for the CBM, applicants must hold a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology (or the equivalent) from an accredited college/university. Current AMS Sealholders (those that earned the Seal prior to January 1, 2005 ) are not required to meet this criteria. These Sealholders may qualify for the CBM designation if they pass the written exam. All CBM applicants must pass the written exam to earn the CBM designation. "
Link

Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.

6" is my prediction as it seems when we get this type of systems coming across the Gulf we tend to get a lot more rain than forecasted due to the deep tropical moisture that has moved in. For instance last year same type of set up the end of last March CPC had us under 2 to 3" across FL and we in C FL in some cases had over a foot of rain. I had 6.63" that day and I think Jedkins said he had between 5 & 9 inches and nearly a foot over the 3 day span. So my point is these Gulf systems usually end up giving us a lot more than what's actually predicted.

new one for south Florida.............................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-210600-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS MAINLY THIS MORNING...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

WIND: ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

FLOODING: ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
FORECAST, CONDITIONS COULD BE MOST FAVORABLE LATER ON SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. FORECAST DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER REFINED, SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES
CITY AS WATER LEVEL REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE REGULAR HIGH
TIDE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST BEACHES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

Quoting FLWaterFront:


Many TV mets in this area repeat the mantra that "we don't get the big tornadoes that they get in the Midwest and the Plains states. Ours are mostly weak, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes with summer thunderstorms and they last only for a minute or two."

This is a classic example of generalizing. In truth, Florida can get violent and deadly tornadoes which can compete with those in the Midwest when conditions come together just right, as may possibly happen this weekend. But it is just as likely that the necessary setup for that will not develop.

As you said, the backing off on mentioning severe Wx potential is mainly because of the lack of certainty, which in turn is in part due to the lack of hard data for observation at this point. For instance, the low center has not even formed yet upstream. But I digress..

The tornado potential in Florida is often understated, which is part of the reason that those in the general public are often completely taken by surprise here when potentially deadly twisters do in fact touch down. Another reason for this is the tendency in the mind to associate Florida with hurricanes, thus canceling out any association with tornadoes. "Tornadoes happen in Oklahoma, not Florida." This is the same principle as the idea that earthquakes happen in California, not the mid Mississippi valley (New Madrid fault system), where river floods from heavy rains happen instead. You get the picture. ;-)

I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes. I've consistently observe the strength of helicity make or break tornado events. You may sometimes see what appears to be a great environment for tornado development, and you may get rotating super cells that never produce tornadoes, this is often due to helicity being too low.


I remember the local tornado outbreak around the Tampa Bay area last spring, overall bulk shear values weren't impressive enough for significant tornadoes, as they rarely are, but helicity was very impressive, and we had a stout cold pocket aloft and a very moist air mass combined with impressive upper divergence from the deep digging trough.


Several tornadoes touched down in my county, and 1 passed within a half mile from my house,I got 75 mph RFD gusts from the meso that did damage in my neighborhood and snapped the power poles behind my house knocking the power out for a while. We got nearly 4 inches of rain from just that cell and just over 9 inches for the whole day.



That was a very impressive storm system, I doubt the impacts from this system will match that of last Spring around here, but we shall see. Because of the fact that confidence is low with this event we can't rule out a severe event that is worse than expected.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
I would say where the SPC has the slight risk is where a moderate risk maybe issued so S FL watchout!

Ooh, I have a SEE TEXT!!! Possibility of small hail and winds and a 5% categorical for plain severe! First time in a while for that!

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Ooh, I have a SEE TEXT!!! Possibility of small hail and winds and a 5% categorical for plain severe! First time in a while for that!

this event looks like it wants to spread up the east coast.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, this is what they had her doing with Houston Texans cheerleaders

Best post of the day. Thanks Rita!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.

Good morning Jeff,

More importantly, if you look at the upper left corner of your image this is an upper level system that once it reaches the Gulf Coast, should cut off and then develop into a broad surface cold core low. ( Non Tropical ) The NWS still thinks the severe threat here in CFl will be low and will remain further South. Some decent rain for most but nothing that should cause the rivers and lake to over fill where people will be boating in the streets of CFL. There will be some heavy pockets for sure. I think the convection you see building in the GOF is an entirely completely different entity altogether.

Quoting Patrap:
..one can almost taste da doom

LOLOLOL i was thinking the same thing this morning pat lol

Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.

The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

LinkDamaging winds?...how does That happen?

Quoting jeffs713:

I'm not, actually. I'm judging based upon her posted resume, website and current job. There is no mention of a degree anywhere (on KHOU's site, her site, or anywhere else I've found her info). If someone was a TV weather personality, and had a degree... You'd be sure to post it.

Here is an excerpt from the AMS website regarding the seal of approval (bolded emphasis is mine):

"What is the AMS Seal of Approval?

The AMS Seal of Approval was launched in 1957 as a way to recognize on-air meteorologists for their sound delivery of weather information to the general public. Among radio and television meteorologists, the AMS Seal of Approval is sought as a mark of distinction. To date, the Society has awarded more than 1,400 Seals of Approval.

How does a broadcast meteorologist obtain the Seal of Approval?

The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. If the applicant meets these criteria they are awarded the AMS Seal of Approval and can display the Seal on the air. All current Sealholders may retain and display their Seals as long as they pay their membership and renewal fees each year and complete certain professional development requirements every five years.

How do these two programs differ?

The main difference between the two programs is education and the exam. To apply for the CBM, applicants must hold a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology (or the equivalent) from an accredited college/university. Current AMS Sealholders (those that earned the Seal prior to January 1, 2005 ) are not required to meet this criteria. These Sealholders may qualify for the CBM designation if they pass the written exam. All CBM applicants must pass the written exam to earn the CBM designation. "
Link

Alright fair enough, I'll admit I assumed the AMS approval required you to have a MET degree.

Quoting Patrap:
..one can almost taste da doom

Good morning Pat!

Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

????????????

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Storm of the Centuryesque?

Highly doubt to that degree but the potential exists for a similar event. Mainly posting the image for a visual representation of what we may see this weekend.

..morn 2K, LargoFl'

So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?

Quoting StormTracker2K:


this event looks like it wants to spread up the east coast.

Sure does. If I get a chance to maybe I can finally submit some severe weather reports as a spotter... It's quite funny that right after I got certified as a trained spotter, the area has one of the dryest and nicest periods of weather in memory...

Quoting Patrap:
..morn 2K, LargoFl'

Is hot by you guys too?

The model guidance shows the front pushing thru NOLA before the cyclogenesis occurs, so we should only get strong winds behind it as it scoots eastward Sat-Sunday.


Short term...


Cold front will continue to move eastward toward the area
today...and across the area overnight. Most model solutions have
delayed the upper low cutting off until the daytime hours on
Saturday...which will have the effect of delaying the development
of a strong surface low along the cold front until after the front
passes to the east of the area. Will keep chance probability of precipitation in the
forecast for overnight into Saturday...with values being lower
than in previous forecasts. Will also note that latest trends
indicate current forecast probability of precipitation may still be too high. Thunder will
be very limited with this system...and mainly confined to the
overnight hours tonight. Precipitation will move out of the area
by sunset Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will move into the
area Saturday afternoon through Sunday as low pressure gets
cranked up over the eastern Gulf. Temperatures today will remain
several degrees above normal...but the cold front and low pressure
will bring cooler weather for several days. Expect below normal
temperatures...which we have not seen much of in the last 2
months...for Saturday and Sunday. 35

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is hot by you guys too?

good morning pat, yes and very humid

Quoting RitaEvac:
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?

tomorrow 18Z, already have my row boat tuned up.

It's a comfy 72F here currently..

Weather Station - report
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

Quoting RitaEvac:
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?

For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!

Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.

for our Boaters and fishermen................................
GMZ870-873-876-202115-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

SUNDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

MONDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

hmm local news saying up to 60 mph winds and strong severe storms for sf this weekend sounds ;like a ts watch lol . but you never know stranger things have happen in the tropics still intersting tho

12Z NAM split it's previous tracks over Florida, little lower in pressure.

Quoting RitaEvac:


????????????

"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...

Be sure to pass the info on Bad weather to those who may not know its coming.


The elderly, shut-ins, etc.

Be pro-active.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!

With summer heat approaching, that is not good. In fact when you don't get spring rains, that is usually a sign of things to come. It could get worse there, so don't just think rains are gonna turn on like a switch

Quoting StormTracker2K:


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.

Quoting jeffs713:

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.

You don't have to explain yourself, I know what we were discussing.

Some decent blocking over Greenland..

Quoting jeffs713:

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.

I hear you. I've lived in places with excellent TV mets who were far more than just "weather readers" filling in until a spot opened up at the anchor desk. For instance, in Miami in the 80s and 90s we had Don Noe and Bryan Norcross (among several others). But I've lived in other ares where we weren't so lucky. Los Angeles, for example, has some grossly underqualified TV weather people, both male and female. There's nothing wrong with looking great--I wish I did, you know?. But when these people are on camera, it's not about the weather; it's about them. And that does a huge disservice, I think...

Quoting Neapolitan:
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...

I can't speak for anyone else, but taken out of context, my comments are definitely sexist. Taken in context, and especially with what I just posted a few moments ago... I don't see them as sexist in any way, just how the networks operate.

Quoting RitaEvac:


You don't have to explain yourself, I know what we were discussing.

I know you do. Its everyone else that I'm explaining for. :)

Quoting Neapolitan:
I hear you. I've lived in places with excellent TV mets who were far more than just "weather readers" filling in until a spot opened up at the anchor desk. For instance, in Miami in the 80s and 90s we had Don Noe and Bryan Norcross (among several others). But I've lived in other ares where we weren't so lucky. Los Angeles, for example, has some grossly underqualified TV weather people, both male and female. There's nothing wrong with looking great--I wish I did, you know?. But when these people are on camera, it's not about the weather; it's about them. And that does a huge disservice, I think...

Exactly. That's my point.

Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.

We may not even get 6" was just saying from experience that has been the case with many of these Gulf storms. It does though look we are turing the corner with this event. As some of the long rain models bring in another cut off feature from TX to FL. So TX across the Gulf Coast & FL could really be settling in a wet pattern down the road something to watch. Even the guy near Austin just hang in there buddy more rain is coming for you guys to although you may have to wait 7 to 10 days.