Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
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goodnight to you.
Nope, just one particularly potent cyclic supercell.
One that is about to get overtaken by an outflow-dominant cluster to the west.
G'night. Thanks for some very interesting reading this evening.
Lin
chaser says this one is one the ground or will be shortly
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012
AMZ610-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-071-072-168 -172-010430-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
1008 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012
.NOW...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ONSHORE AFFECTING
NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY AND THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTLINES.
THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN INLAND BUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC MAY PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND MARINERS NEED
TO BE CAUTIOUS.
$$
OKC053-071-010300-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0044.120501T0228Z-120501T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
* AT 920 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO AND
RADAR DETECTS A TORNADO ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF MEDFORD. THIS
TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THOSE RESPONDING TO REPORTS OF INJURY
OR DAMAGE IN AND AROUND MEDFORD SHOULD BE PREPARE FOR ANOTHER
STORM. WINDS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAMAN...DEER CREEK...NARDIN...RENFROW AND HUNNEWELL.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 221 AND 234.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3678 9729 3678 9772 3696 9767 3701 9741
3700 9735 3700 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 254DEG 12KT 3680 9769
$$
Upton reviewing the data further, I would say that I am fairly confident that the circulation that occluded and moved north toward Wakita within the last 30min was a strong tornado (EF2+ for buildings in the path). Luckily the area appears very rural, although the debris signature was pretty clear on radar, directly in conjunction with the 170kt+ shear at less than 1000ft AGL. Wow.
Temperature: 98.1 °F
Dew Point: 71.8 °F
Humidity: 95.0%
Wind Speed: 14.5mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 27.3mph from the SE
Precipitation: 0.07in
Weather restrictions in STAGE 2
We could really use some rain, but there is no chance of it for the next ten days apparently. We need a tropical storm pretty bad at this point.
It actually kinda looks like there was a tornado that weakened as it was moving into Medford, then a new tornado formed just on the east side. Similar to the Greensburg, KS, case from earlier today, but probably stronger tornadoes this time.
The storms in general seem to be going in a NEerly direction. Storms that get surface-based then seem to be right-turning such that they are going Easterly or Southeastly. Some of the more outflow dominant storms seem to be going southeasterly. I've seen a few circulations moving at deviant directions compared to the parent storms, although the circulations seem to do that when they are occluding; left-curving during occlusion isn't all that atypical...
no injuries yet...mostly barn damage,,,
42s KXAN Weather KXAN Weather @KXAN_Weather
Looks like Medford, OK may have dodged a bullet. Tornado damage reported just east and west of the town. Weather is coming up on KXAN.
2m Dan Skoff Dan Skoff @weatherdan
@spann Medford narrowly missed tornado damage. Major damage 1 mile W of Medford & 6 miles E of Medford, but nothing in town of Medford.
In reply to James Spann
3m David Barouski David Barouski @TornadoesDave
Prelim report is a #tornado barely missed #Medford #Oklahoma but has been some damage rpts near town but nothing major that Ive heard of yet
Done.... My bad....
XXXOOO
99mb Low?
Greenland is getting the whip!!!
Link
DOOM!!!
Several powerlines on Highway 11, about three and half miles east of Medford, are reportedly down at this point, blocking the highway.
Link
MEDFORD, Oklahoma -
A tornado touched down near Medford, Oklahoma, Monday night and caused severe damage in the area.
At about 9:20 p.m. Monday, a tornado touched down near Medford. News 9 Storm Tracker Val Castor reports seeing major damage about one mile west of Medford. One home and several barns were damaged.
Several power poles on Highway 11, about three and half miles east of Medford, are reportedly down at this point, blocking the highway.
No damage have been reported in the city of Medford. There is no power in the Medford area at this time.
The only reason I noticed this is because this morning I was checking out a new feature on the local news weather page called "Futurecast" which models sky and precipitation conditions. It actually modeled the weather for the entire globe and I was playing around with it. Got to Europe and saw this bizarre spiral that looked like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. I'm like what the heck is that? So I did a news search to see what was going on and sure enough, it's some more climate craziness.
We will see
Posted on April 30, 2012
April 30, 2012 – CARIBBEAN – A leading expert at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) is urging the Caribbean’s 40 million people to be prepared for a tsunami, two years ahead of a planned early warning system for the region. Watson-Wright, assistant director-general and executive secretary of the UNESCO-Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, has agreed with other leading tsunami experts that it is a case of “when, not if” the region would be struck by the giant waves triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity, Watson-Wright noted. “Lurking beneath the azure waters that wash up on countless coastal and island beaches and vacation spots is the potential for a devastating tsunami,” she said. In addition to the 40 million people living in the region, she said 22 million people visit the Caribbean annually, making the region “extremely vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis.” Since 1498 there have been at least 94 tsunamis with run-ups reported in the Caribbean region, causing 4,652 deaths, Watson-Wright said. She said most of these tsunamis were associated with underwater, or what are called submarine earthquakes, although the Caribbean Sea region has all of the potential tsunami-generating sources, such as submarine earthquakes, sub-aerial or submarine landslides and volcano activity. Scientists and disaster management officials have said that models predict a tsunami wiping out vast areas in several island nations where most people live in around capitals and low-lying coastal areas. “Sound science-based tsunami inundation modeling has been performed for all of Puerto Rico and several localities in the French Antilles and Venezuela, which demonstrates real tsunami threats for this region,” the UNESCO expert said. –Jamaica Observer
Link
Isn't there some urban legend that earthquakes are many times preceded by strong winds, fireballs, and meteors?
Yeah, going between the two. The one in North OK, headed at Waukomis has a tornado warning on it now.
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