Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 — Blog Index
Looks like the W/NW Caribbean might be in for another wet wet week .
Link
It's going to be very, very close in terms of Wind Speed.
Maybe in the formative stages. I think she will reach 70 mph winds by landfall time (just below hurricane status)...but I did concede on my blog update that she has a remote chance of being a minimal hurricane by landfall. Either way...the impacts are going to be the same....
Direction of Travel: ESE (106°)
Location: 28 miles (45 km) to the WNW (299°) from Tallahassee, FL, USA.
Hmmmm, I haven't felt that presence since...?
20:02 UTC Viz
You must now enter.
I've lived in coastal FL for 40+ years - and I don't recall a homeowners' policy from any company that ever covered screens - pool enclosures - pools - spas - landscaping - etc. BTW - we're currently insured by State Farm Florida. Robyn
In other US Weather, SPC Page a lighting up watch wise
I would have accepted a please...
Very good, including well away from the center, even as much as 200 miles away from it in the spiral bands.
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI
..with Storm tracks
now they justt form ed about a hour ago unexcepcted i would say surpise from beryl lol
You can thank regulation.
Beryl already is tropical.
203500 3039N 08240W 5529 05070 0138 -038 -234 035034 035 /// /// 03
This should be interesting.
20 mins
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...71 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...94
KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
I was away for a few hours; I agree. Has NHC declared a tropical transition yet (or any minute now)?
The big bend area of Florida and Southern Georgia should receive the most rain.
One cant see nor know of weather deteriorating inside a Dept Store,etc.
It's a Strong Tropical Storm and not a "meh" event in any instance.
Yes, the NHC has declared her fully tropical.
Hurricane hunters will get a much more accurate read on how strong Beryl is. Should they find that Beryl is stronger, the NHC will likely then issue an Update Statement and/or a Special Advisory.
Maybe try the NHC Page.
U do have it bookmarked?
Sorry - thought you meant the Town Center up in Duval County. Robyn
5:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.0°N 80.3°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Still 65 mph but recon is en route...
You're fortunate you haven't been cancelled yet. My dad is a retired SF agent, and he couldn't even get SF when they built their latest house! SF, Citizens, etc did have an endorsement that you could get that would cover screens and above ground spas (not landscaping), but Citizen's just non-renewed the endorsement when our policy renewed in April.
So an official hurricane designation, if I'm right, can be a big deal when it comes out of pocket costs. Maybe some insurance agent can correct me if I'm wrong.
Hi there
Have you taken a look at what is coming up from our South ?. By sometime tonight the rain should be back again in full force if the lift to the North continues :-(
..click image to ZOOM
Viewing: 851 - 901
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 — Blog Index