Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.
Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.
Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam
Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Time to consider hunkering down.
The Eyewall, heavy Bands whatever is closing towards the Coast and the storm is still strengthening by my view.
Make sure your NOAA alert Radio has battery Back-up and your cell Phones are fully charged.
Have a old sound powered Rotary Phone in case cell service is Lost.
The Storm will come in thru the overnight Hours so consider that as well.
Having waited for somebody else to make the comparison first, I would just say that Katrina became a hurricane 2 hours prior to landfall, had winds of 80mph, which is plausible here, and caused $1-2 billion dollars damage. I'm concerned that this storm hasn't been taken quite seriously enough.
"85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be."
Where did you get that from?? How/where is turtle??
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
That is about 994.678175 mb)
Station 41012
NDBC
Location: 30.042N 80.534W
Date: Sun, 27 May 2012 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 13.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (50°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.37 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 77.7 F
Dew Point: 73.8 F
Water Temperature: 77.5 F
Multiple 5 to 7 degree record high breaks for Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, and I think Illinois.
NOLA also tied a record yesterday and may have broken the record for today.
Hammond, LA may have had a 2 degree record high break today, we'll see what the official word will be.
What's worse is that the area really can't say it has much experience with hurricanes...
He's on americanwx.com
I think he's a professional met now.
It is it just doesn't look as tight cause it's not fully closed yet. Like 80-85% complete.
If the high builds back, she's coming back for round 2.
READY THE SWIM GOGGLES!
The beach bar across the street is almost standing room only right now.
FL/GA are..."staring down the Beryl of a .45"
NEXRAD Radar
Base Radial Velocity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI
...ooofh!
Was thinking the same thing.A lot of people will be surprised and I hope will take all storms more seriously in the future.Preparation is always better than the devastation.
They've not even sampled the NE quadrant yet...a little worried to see what the winds are like there. :P
Sorry, Removed, double post, I didn't see the vortex had been posted already!
Strap in folks,
,,it's "May"-an Cane Season Palooza 2012
wow lol, this deserved to be re-posted lol
LOL!
Never say Never again...?
Ivan, Gordon, Betsy, screwed up reversals and double whammies...
Is it just me, or dos it appear that it slowing down? Any chance this thing stalls jusyoff the coast b4 it turns north?
He already blowing forecasts..maybe he thought because this is TWC, no one is really watching..wow!
That's a hurricane then I guess.
Kts at flight level = mph at the surface, roughly.
So it should be 73mph sustained at the surface, which is only 1mph low...
Wish they'd go into another pattern after this pass.
or they should have left sooner, im surprised they didnt move the time up to avoid something like this happening
I miss DR. Lyons, He was really good and could be funny at times!
Ok, you're probably right. It just seems like the eye shouldn't be about 50-60 miles wide like it is on radar.
friend him on FB, hes always posting pics too.
He works for the Texas NWS I believe now, maybe the Austin office.
Armaegeddon reference FTW!!
Indeed, good guy...Norcross is ok but more of a hypest (like Cantore)...and Knabb, well lets just say I won't miss him.
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