Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hawaii gets a temporary reprieve

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:40 PM GMT on March 17, 2006

The rains have stopped for the past day on Hawaii's Kauai Island, where over 100 inches of rain has fallen in the mountains in the past three weeks. The heavy rains are due to a persistent upper-level low pressure system, a common occurence in the Central Pacific during a La Nina event like the region is now experiencing. The rains moved away from the islands yesterday, which have been under a continuous series of flash flood warnings and watches for weeks. The improved weather will aid in the search for victims of the failure of an earthen dam that burst on Kauai Tuesday. When the dam broke, a 20-foot flood of water moving at 15-20 mph smashed through a populated area, killing two and leaving six people missing and presumed dead. If the missing people are declared dead, this week's disaster would be the deadliest weather disaster in Hawaii's history.

Figure 1. Radar estimated precipitation on Kauai from March 13 - March 17. The radiating rays to the north are caused by mountains that block the radar beam, and the actual precipitation on the northern part of the island is greater than shown here.

Hawaii is probably the safest state as far as deaths from weather-related causes go. High surf is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in Hawaii, with 92 deaths between 1960-2004. Flash floods have killed 46 people in Hawaii in the past 45 years, high wind, six people, and hurricanes, six. Prior to this week's flood disaster, the previous most deadly flood disaster on Hawaii occurred on December 14, 1991, when a rainstorm dropped over 20 inches of rain in 12 hours on Kauai, causing five deaths, intense flooding, bank failures, erosion, and slides, with more than $5 million in property damages. Hawaii's only billion-dollar weather disaster occurred in 1992, when Hurricane Iniki passed directly over Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killing 6 and causing over $3 billion in damage. Hurricanes are fairly rare in Hawaii--only three hurricanes have brought hurricane-force winds over the islands since 1957. The National Climatic Data Center lists Hawaii as having the second fewest billion dollar weather disasters of any state since 1980 (one). Only Alaska has had no billion-dollar weather disasters.

The 100+ inches of rain that fell on Kauai's Mt. Waialeale the past three weeks has not set any records yet--Mount Waialeale averages 424 inches of rain per year, and is second only to the the monsoon-drenched Himalaya Mountains of India as the wettest spot on Earth. Mt. Waialeale recorded 683 inches of rain in 1982. The U.S. record of 704 inches in a year was set the same year at nearby Maui Island's Puu Kukui, at 5,788 feet elevation. The Hawaiian state 24-hour rainfall record is 38 inches at Kilauea Plantation on the island of Kauai, on Jan 24-25, 1956. Mt. Waialeale has three factors that help it catch more rain than other locations in the Hawaiian islands (thanks, Wikipedia):

1) Its northern position relative to the main Hawaiian Islands provides more exposure to frontal systems that bring rain during the winter.
2) It has a relatively round and regular conical shape, exposing all sides of its peak to winds and the moisture that they carry.
3) Its peak lies just below the so-called trade wind inversion layer of 6,000 feet (1,800 m), above which trade-wide-produced clouds cannot rise.

The long range outlook for Kauai and the rest of the Hawaiian islands is not good--another upper-level low pressure system is expected to move over the islands Saturday, bringing an increased chance of flash flooding. The rains are part of a typical La Nina weather pattern for the Hawaiian islands which is expected to continue for several months, according to the latest seasonal outlook issued yesterday by the Climate Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Rainbow on the Ocean (NorthPix)

There is a faint double rainbow.

651 inches of rain a year!! (coyoteweed)

Sleeping Giant!!

Mount Waialeale (Kahuna)

Clear view of Mount Waialeale, the wettest spot on Earth, as seen from the Kuilau trail on the Hawaiian island of Kauai.

Categories: Flood

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51. weatherguy03 12:38 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
anyone..Now if only I can learn to type..Ha Ha!! Member Since:* July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

52. weatherguy03 12:42 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
And also, the same could be said about Katrina's satelite appearance before landfall, which lead to its slight weakening. And also, for people to say this is political or its about insurance companies is totally absurd. Cmon guys..LOL Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

53. hurricanechaser 12:50 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
Hey Bob and Colby, I have been reviewing the radar signatures, data in the archives, etc. during the past couple of hours and I am leaning more toward the operationally assessed intensity of a 120 mph category 3 at landfall. Naturally, this is simply my opinion and earlier I was leaning toward 125 mph sustained. However, further objective review suggests I may have been just a little generous, but it definitely wasn't a category two no matter what data we analyze and the radar signature is consistent with a marginal category three. Moreover, the eyewall and outer rain bands became slightly better defined just prior to landfall. Anyways, I hope both of you have a wonderful weekend. Thanks, Tony

54. hurricanechaser 12:54 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
Hey Bob, We can certainly respectfully agree to disagree for the data and radar signatures were far more impressive with Katrina at landfall and she was not only a marginal category three in my personal opinion, and there is no reasonable meterological rationale for the downgrade to such a low intensity. Thanks, Tony

55. hurricanechaser 12:57 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
Have a goodnight Bob...you know I love you man, even when we occasionally disagree.(lol):)

56. weatherguy03 12:58 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
Yes, Katrina's radar signature was more impressive then Rita's. I agree more with the NHC assesment on Rita then Katrina. I think we will never know the real truth about Katrina's winds because alot of data was lost right at landfall. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

57. hurricanechaser 1:10 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
Hey Bob, Honestly, I couldn't agree with you more Bob on your assessment of Katrina and we really aren't that far off on Rita's landfall intensity.:) That has to be an indication that I am getting just a little smarter and there may be hope for me just yet (lol).:) Ok, my last post for the night and I do hope you have a wonderful weekend and please know that I am sincerely keeping you in my prayers.:) Thanks, Tony

58. ForecasterColby 3:26 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
I was saying I was suprised the NHC didn't have it as a Cat 2 - they tend to underrate, IMO. I'd say 115 is correct, though.

60. ForecasterColby 6:56 AM GMT on March 19, 2006
See, I'm not gonna buy 65kt with that satellite presentation.

64. HurricaneMyles 3:02 PM GMT on March 19, 2006
It may be a Cat 4 on the Aussie scale, but it's not the Saffir-Simspon scale. I made the same mistake earlier this year. Cat 3 is a minimal hurricane in down under. There scale is different, not excactly sure the details on it, but thier Cat1 is our weak TS. Cat 2 is a strong TS. Cat 3 is a weak hurricane. Cat 4 is a stronger hurricane, and Cat 5 is an intense hurricane. All in all, JTWC is always very conservative. Right now they still say it's a 90 kt storm. I wouldnt be suprised if it's really 110-115 kts strong. Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827

68. HurricaneMyles 3:25 PM GMT on March 19, 2006
I'd beleive it MichaelSTL; That's an impressive looking storm. I would not be surprised if it is still intensifying. Warm waters and favorable conditions for the time being, even though windshear is starting to increase according to Sat Direved Winds. It's probably going to be very bad for whoever is in Larry's way. Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827

69. ForecasterColby 6:09 PM GMT on March 19, 2006
I've posted a blog on Larry and will be updating throughout the day.

70. isawitonline 9:02 PM GMT on March 19, 2006
>>I'd beleive it MichaelSTL; That's an impressive looking storm. I would not be surprised if it is still intensifying. Warm waters and favorable conditions for the time being, even though windshear is starting to increase according to Sat Direved Winds. It's probably going to be very bad for whoever is in Larry's way.<< Thankfully, there is not much in Larry's way. A few sugar plantations, a few thousand people in a few communities. It's splitting the uprights between Cairns and Townsville...thankfully, not impacting either larger urban area. http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2006/03/tropical-discussion-strong-tropical.html

71. atmosweather 9:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2006
Not much except my dad's family lol. This is really scary. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

72. Skyepony (Mod) 1:00 AM GMT on March 20, 2006
North Texas got ~5 inches of rain. Highlight: "There are houses that have water coming in them, and there are cars that are submerged" across the Dallas-Fort Worth area, said National Weather Service meteorologist Ted Ryan. He said at least two high water rescues were reported in Arlington but authorities had not received word of weather-related injuries. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

73. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta 1:39 AM GMT on March 20, 2006
atmosweather i think you got mail

74. Skyepony (Mod) 3:01 AM GMT on March 20, 2006
By The Numbers: Fema Recovery Update In Louisiana I also ran across this, a repeat of the year before: FEMA Wants Some Relief Payments Back Looks like Kauai might be back on for more rain... Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

75. Skyepony (Mod) 3:31 AM GMT on March 20, 2006
that 2nd link again Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29374

76. ForecasterColby 7:56 AM GMT on March 20, 2006
What's wrong with this picture: WTPS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200152ZMAR2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 145.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 145.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.1S 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.5S 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 144.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P MADE LANDFALL NEAR INNISFAIL, AUSTRALIA AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 200300) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN 100kt winds is not dissipating!

77. ForecasterColby 1:54 PM GMT on March 20, 2006
Larry now dying overland, a swirl of breaking clouds. Innisfail, Australia, lies in ruins, from what I can find.

78. mellotrongirl 7:13 PM GMT on March 21, 2006
If Waialeale is the second-weetest spot on the planet after a spot in the Himalayas of India, there is a spot on Queensland at roughly the same elevation of Kauai's second-highest peak (5,100 ft.) that supposedly is the fifth wettest spont on Earth after Colombia and Cameroon...Bellenden Ker, where over a 9 year period averaged 340 inches. I wonder what the wettest spot in the lower 48 states is...probably somewhere in the Olympics of Washington State or in the coast range of northern Oregon? I wouldn't be surprised if the wettest spot in Alaska is around Ketchikan. Seems like it's always raining up there. I had no idea Queensland is so wet...maybe this was an extraordinary nine year period? Member Since: December 7, 2005 Posts: 48 Comments: 35

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