Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Andrea no help for Florida's fires

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity has decreased on the storm's west side, but become a little more concentrated on the east side. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has remained about the same, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant. Andrea remains a sloppy, disorganized storm. The main threat from the storm is coastal erosion due to the pounding surf it is generating--plus a possible fanning of the fires burning in Florida and Georgia (see below).

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 25 knots this evening. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-25 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
As Andrea began to form on Tuesday off the Carolina coast, the counter-clockwise circulation of air around the center of low pressure brought northerly winds over northern Florida and southern Georgia, where significant fires are burning. These north winds blew the smoke from the fires into the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, where unhealthy levels of particulate matter air pollution were recorded (Figure 1). The storm moved far enough west and south today that a more westerly flow of air has been carrying the smoke out over the Atlantic. Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them; in fact, the storm's high winds have served to fan the flames.

Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.

Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of fires burning over Florida on May 8, 2007. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period with a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update in the morning. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)

Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.

Smoke (BillyBob)

Smoke moving in to Central Florida from the fires in Georgia and Northern Florida created this interesting orange glow. I took this photo, this morning, looking east across Lake Henry near Winter Haven.

Categories: Fire

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101. WSI 12:25 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
I don't, but you never know. I know plenty of people that still have it. Last year Dr. M told people to lay off the images. Something like under 200k I think. In any case, 6MB is pretty large.

102. C2News 12:26 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Oh wow, i honestly (in my class) know one person with it. Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

103. WSI 12:27 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yeah. I know people that live out in the middle of nowhere, LOL!

104. C2News 12:27 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
yeah lol... Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

105. hurricane23 12:27 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
NHC 8pm Special Feature.... SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 79.5W AT 10/0000 UTC OR 110 MILES SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. ANDREA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER LARGE SLOPPY CIRCULATION OF ANDREA HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE DECLINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW QUADRANT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHOWS NARROW BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ONSHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AN IMPROVED WIDER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13278

106. C2News 12:29 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
are those two bolding statements contradicting... Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

107. melwerle 12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
ok - so checking in. Our clouds are getting thick here and the wind is howling outside - i have funny pictures of me and daughter pretending to be willow trees (too many rum and cokes) and the clouds outside. Not much rain - a few drops here and there in Savannah (actually about 40 miles south). No big deal - I always worry about the tornados and such but with such heavy winds, I don't know if there is anything to worry about (from the west originally so I am still learning east coast "weather"). Anyway - what do things look like - i have checked anything that is going on yet - SJ? SW? Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

108. C2News 12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
BTW does anyone know of any rss imagery? i am having a hard time finding some Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

109. thelmores 12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
HurricaneFCast, thanks, after looking at the shear map, it became obvious what Dr. Masters so astutely pointed out. if not for the shear, I believe Andrea could have transitioned, but if you look at the sat above, you can see the direction of the shear, and the effects it is having. no NW convection, partly due to dry air, partly shear. The circulation is shallow, but is still feeling effects of the shear. the center of circulation is "almost" exposed now..... all the huge convection on the SE side is being blown SE..... The only chance Andrea has I believe, is to stay stationary, or drift SE...... and at this point, I give up on speed, direction..... and well, intensity seems limited by the shear.... anyway, saw that with my beer goggles on! LOL Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

110. WSI 12:32 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
BTW does anyone know of any rss imagery? Only think I know of is the NHC RSS products. Like I have here. Its not even imagery really. Just a link to it.

111. C2News 12:32 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
hey melwerle i am down here in jacksonville, florida it is windy and rainy here Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

112. StormJunkie 12:33 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Sorry y'all. MIMIC linked. My bad WSI, completely forgot about the size thing. usually don't post image, but that one tells a good story. You can also find the CIMSS site which produces the MIMIC imagery from here. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

113. hurricane23 12:33 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Overall what there saying is Andrea remains rather disorganizd and futher strengthing does not seem likely at this time.Maybe things will change overnight but as of now the drift continues as another system kicks here out to sea in a few days. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13278

114. TheCaneWhisperer 12:34 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
5 Times as much moisture and MUCH warmer sst's!

115. WSI 12:34 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
No prob SJ. Didn't want your comment to get canned. ;) It is a good image though. I like those images.

116. C2News 12:35 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
well i'm gonna go now...i will get back on later Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

117. chessrascal 12:40 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: C2News at 12:29 AM GMT on May 10, 2007. are those two bolding statements contradicting... I dont think so its its just saying that she was decreasing in convection and now shes getting her act back together after the circulation center change.

118. TheCaneWhisperer 12:43 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: C2News at 8:29 PM EDT on May 09, 2007. are those two bolding statements contradicting... I don't think so! They are explaining what happened to Andrea most of the day! I would think they start writing these reports at least an hour early! They must have wanted to note this occurance!

119. Fl30258713 12:44 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Maybe with all the HP around this thing the shear will increase the outflow while HP holds her together. After the shear decreases I think the convection on the east side will wrap around and even out. I don't see Andrea moving very much. Is HP in the GOM supposed to increase? Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

120. C2News 12:46 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
ok srry i stuck around i am actually leaving now but shear if anything is supposed to increase Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622

121. MZT 12:46 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
It takes a lot of beating before the NHC downgrades a storm. The NHC kept a name on Zeta and Chris long after they became pitiful shells of their former selves. One quadrant of continuing convection is sufficient. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

122. Fl30258713 12:47 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
It's still too soon to talk about Chris,lol. The COC shows up pretty good on this: http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=bah&size=large&period=720&incr=60&r r=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off I like these satellite shots. I can't remember who posted that link yesterday but you know who you are. Thanks! Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

124. hurricane23 12:52 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
T-numbers confirm andrea is slowly weakening. SEE HERE Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13278

125. StormJunkie 12:53 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yep, good evening to you too '03 ☺ Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

126. MZT 12:54 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Comparing the 8:05 and 8:51 images here on WU, I think the storm is holding it's ground and possibly beginning to intensify again. But I'll wait for a few more images to arrive before making that call. (It was obvious by 11:30 yesterday.) Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

127. Bamatracker 12:54 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
crap...am i a spammer now?!!! Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

128. weatherguy03 12:56 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
LOL...BT. Never you!! You entertain us! Beginning to intensify? Huh? Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

130. StormJunkie 12:58 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Spam posts may contain anything from a single link, to dozens of links. Text content is minimal, usually innocuous and unrelated to the forum's topic. Another type that is recently hitting forums is full banner ads and blatant posting of an ad that is unrelated to the thread's topic. This takes away from the thread creator's topic of discussion, is rude and interrupts any fluid discussion started. This also eats up bandwidth, the time for someone to delete the SPAM and space wasted on the server. Especially when the person is going from thread to thread posting the same thing over and over with no regards to the topic or rules of those forums posted to. From wikipedia Or am I just misunderstanding? Are you calling someone a meat like substance? Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

131. melwerle 12:58 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
hey c2 - nothing much here. Just wind and a few "sprits" here and there. Funny - i haven't looked to see where this is right now but i feel like it should be doing more than this. Although not complaining AT ALL - we have a fab breeze and COOL weather for a change. If it could be like this all the time, our real estate would go up like it was in San diego before we sold... Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

132. WSI 1:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
SJ who are you talking to? Ooops.. guess I have to turn the filters off to see. :)

133. hurricane23 1:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Tune in to IPR and listen to the TROPICAL ROUND TABLE @ 9PM. CLICK HERE and select your player on the left. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13278

134. weatherguy03 1:01 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Nah, you got it right..LOL Good job SJ. Was down near the beach alittle while ago. Man, this is a joke. So far a few light showers. Seas have actually come down a bit from yesterday. The beach took a pounding unfortunately, but we are prone to that here. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

135. MZT 1:01 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yeah, it could just be a distortion in the calibration for the infrared color sequence. That's why I want to see a few more images roll in. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

136. weatherguy03 1:01 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Who uses filters? Only the geeks!..LOL Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

137. weatherguy03 1:02 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Thanks 23!! Will check it out. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

139. stormwatcher247 1:05 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
You gotta be kidding, this thing is nothing!

140. thelmores 1:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Here is Andrea in 2 hours! LOL Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

141. StormJunkie 1:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Anywho, I think you must have misundertood the data again '03. Unrelated.... ☺ Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

142. StormJunkie 1:07 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Nice try thel :~) Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

143. Rlennon 1:07 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
There is an increase in active in the SE quadrant, but I don't think there is enough moisture to let intensification happen.

144. weatherguy03 1:09 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
St. Simons. 0.10" Woohoo!!..LOL Ya just got to watch TWC. They are searching for something to say!! Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

146. MZT 1:09 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Think I'll find something else to do for an hour, check it again after 10:00. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

148. weatherguy03 1:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Dont get me wrong, I want this thing to get going. I am sad:( I want rain. Tomorrow may be our chance. Please. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

149. hurricane23 1:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Here is a better view of Kris which had no chance due to increaseing shear. NAKED SWIRL... Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13278

150. Bamatracker 1:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
im waiting for the pics of down tree limbs to start coming in....its funny though because alot of times i've noticed in these weak storms the limbs have clean cuts like somebody chopped it down and took the picture. Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

151. weatherguy03 1:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
No, that was my amount!..LOL Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

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