Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

later SJ

Nice post SJ. I like the comparison for year to year.

Thanks lennon. It is the second year I have done it. It is pretty interesting to watch it progress through the season.

Sure wish t hat northern blob would make it on shore here. Don't think the Dr's shear is going to let that happen though. Dang it.

Ok, really off to hit the sack! See y'all in the am.

Night SJ

Hoping for some good rain to help put all those fires out, but Andrea is not delivering...so far...

It looks like half a storm - a fair amount of convection on the right side and nothing at all on the left. Bad thing is all Florida and Georgia gets is a bunch of wind to fan the flames.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for addressing our situation here in Florida. Although I had found it a bit alarming to have a named storm, before the Season even started, right off of my coast, I was even more saddened that this would bring no help for our seemingly "scorched earth" policy that the lack of rain has willed upon us. Even worse, we will see in the next day or two how the increased winds will affect the area.

Good evening to everyone here on Dr. Master's blog; it is comforting to see so many folks keeping up with Andrea. Fresh air and peace to all.

For a storm that is getting sheared heavily it looks like its holding together the same amount of shear ripped albertos center from the convection. the question is how long will the shear last most likely the second it stops it will start regaining power.

I live in Satellite Beach on the east coast of Florida, this morning the smoke was so dense I thought it was overcast. From the latest IR shots, it looks like Andrea is getting sheared apart, and the chance for rain is looking dim.

Feel free to delete this post if necessary, for I wish to cause no harm or bad feelings.

My blog covers the smoke and fire situation in Florida and Georgia. Many folks have helped with updates on the smoke and fire situation throughout the area, especially Rainman32. Feel free to take a peek for the latest updates, and add any that you might feel would be of help. Thank you, and once again, I bid peace to all.

Hey all, good to see the humor hasn't changed much from last year. I was rooting for Andrea to be named just because it was supposedly such an anomaly but I guess it wasn't exactly so odd.

Anyway loved the comments about crow being served with a sauce of foot in mouth and sightings of the "eye", tongue in cheek earlier.

Still here in Biloxi area, gorgeous weather.

Oh yeah, I enjoy the scientific stuff too, won't say I just read the blog for the humor. LOL, by accident I do occasionally learn something.
groundman

Andrea may re-organize a bit tonight during the diurnal minimum, and a center relocation is possible when that happens. Overall, Andrea continues to be very weak. I made an update as of 10 PM on:

Hurricane Warning

aww poor andrea shes exposed xP.... mayb her center will relocate under the new burst of convection?

Either Andrea wil sink or swim...either strengther or weaken


chances:

strengthen- 40%
weaken- 60%

I am probably too hopeful for rain

hi RLennon

long time no see

Hi friend how are you?

Between work and school and holidays, I have had no time for fun.

30.5 N...79.5 W.

Isn't that north and east of where she was earlier today?

Reformed eye? Is it reforming again? Seems like there is one trying to form into that eastern convection.

ok - so heavy gusts here...is this moving or stickin in the south? If staying, I better brew some tea...

Pretty good
Hot as Hades down here and dry as a bone. Would you believe that the land side part of the Hyatt is STILL not open !!
The owner has been locked in an insurance dispute since Ivan in 2004

If simply entering Florida extinguishes Andrea, then it truly was a weak storm. Even depressions usually cross Florida with no problems.

Isn't that north and east of where she was earlier today?

Reformed eye? Is it reforming again? Seems like there is one trying to form into that eastern convection.



It is possible and something that happens often in weak storms.

i been keeping a eye on
this for a few days now and yes you dont need to tell me wind shear is high be come i no that her is what the nhc has to say about it




is generating a swath of scattered
showers and isolated tstms between 65w-71w. A few ship
observations in the region indicate that there could be a sfc
trough in this area of weather. This may be added/brought back
to the 00 z sfc analysis if the data continues to support it.
Farther E...the upper pattern folds into a very broad trough.
Embedded in this trough is a weak 1016 mb low located near
34n39w with a sfc trough stretching SW to near 26n52w. The last
few vis shots before darkness indicate that there could be
another weak low on the trough axis near 28n. Regardless...this
system is weak

Wow that is aweful. I hope they work it out soon.

exactly what I said earlier today but no one paid attention to that. I guess they would rather speculate on where the center is lol

What exactly are you keeping an eye on Taz ?

kmanislander see my post

Ok stupid question time. What is a sfc trough?

With a shear map like this no chance

Link

DRY AIR PUMP IN ACTION

I have noticed something important about this storm that will affect the fires.

Before this storm showed up, we had a very persistent and very dry air mass over the SE. As this storm has been sitting, the dry air is being pumped out of the SE and sent into the Atlantic.

At first this may seem insignificant, but when you couple that with the approaching front from the West you will see the chances for RAIN increasing all over the SE. In JAX we have had a maximum of about 25% chance of rain one or two days a week. The 7 day outlook is now showing a 30%+ chance of rain every day and most nights.

Even though we dont get a soaking from Andrea, she is setting the stage so the SE can have rain again and put out the fires.

I'm making a call. The diurnal minimum has passed and Andrea is improving again. I'm not sure if it will look much better tomorrow morning than this morning, but I expect it will look at least pretty similar, and the storm will still be named.

It looks to me like lower shear will move back in.

Trough

An elogated region of relatively low pressure, usually associated with a front ( wikipedia )

Fancy way of referring to an area of low pressure at the surface originating from a frontal system.

Andrea is essentially dead if we don't get a new burst of convection soon.

wait till after midnight shes putting on her dress and will start dancing again .

MTJax - I don't know. Looks like a lot of dry air over GA, FL, and eastern half of AL. I don't know that I see it all being removed.

"Burst" isn't a word I would use. But there has been some marginal growth in moisture coverage the last hour.

Andrea is on the way to being a low swirl.

It will soon be back to blob watching

There is still a lot of dry air trying to get inside Andrea.
And no real mositure feed.

weatherboykris come to my blog

DOC, i think the fires are making more dry air. I dont see it all going away, but in each frame it looks a little better as the brown goes away. The proof is in the rain probibility changes. I think the dry air has been all over the SE for about 3 weeks now with a few exceptions. As the old timers around here say... "drought breeds drought"

The WV image says it all. Dry air everywhere around Andrea. Where is the convection to come from tonight ?

Link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Look similar?(first pic,pretty funny how similar this storm is to allison if she wasnt retired this storm would be called allison they seem to be very similar (slow movers,lastinglong,similar looks) only thing stoping this one from being an alison in sheep clothing is the lack of moisture perhaps that can change with the burst on the se side. Most likely if the shear would stop it would gain back its west side.

Bah ! Humbug !
The cicadas have stopped their shreiking, and still no sign of a cloud.

Good evening everyone.

Hi Pottery

Man this Andrea has everyone hopping today.

Bah ! Humbug !
The cicadas have stopped their shreiking, and still no sign of a cloud.

Good evening everyone.

The dry air will cause problems for a while, and the SW corner of Andrea may not close up before she reaches land.

But there is moisture infiltration reaching northern AL and GA. It's not as bad a situation as a few days ago.

The shear is complicating factor too. But I still think Andrea will shrug through it.

Mind you, I'm only thinking in terms of Andrea remaining a marginal TS through the morning advisories.

Hi Kman. Excuse the duplication. This machine is playing the ass.
Yeah, Andrea is confounding everyone. Thats weather for you. Lovely !