Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

this was forcast to weaken from day one it poped up .
but it is a stromin may and anything can happen with this . its stalled again and might not go anywhere . right now . it just might be a big rainmaker when its done .

Pottery

We need Andrea to dissipate so that we can finally get some rain here. She is bringing hot dry air this way with W winds. The NW Caribbean is bone dry

Andrea is shown as stationary does this affect how this storms future will play out?

Pottery, hope you get the rain you deserve!

"The dry air will cause problems for a while, and the SW corner of Andrea may not close up before she reaches land."

MZT, I'm not convinced that Andrea will "ever" hit land! While heading west, she stopped! Now just meanders and wabbles....... virtually stationary!

It will weaken the storm,LAboy444.It is upwelling cooler waters,preventing intensification.

Ordinarily a stationary storm weakens as it churns up the water and there is less heat to work with.

This is a minimal subtropical storm so I don't think that's quite so true in this case. Plus it's sitting over the Gulf Stream which is a pretty strong current of water that brings heat under the storm.

MZT, I agree the Gulf Stream makes the upwelling a questionable factor.

look at this monster lol

WU has an 11:05 image in. It appears that Andrea has developed a nice spot of "gold" convection again on the east side.

There is also a blip forming on the SW side offshore of Palm Coast, which has been growing since 10:22.

There also are hints that the convection is trying to wrap around the north side.

I'm sticking with my call that the storm is improving... slowly.

Yeah Kman. Bonedry here too. Some ITCZ stuff in the Atlantic, but with the dust blowing over I think we have a few more weeks of this.
Lost 1500 gals of precious water here when a small tree boa fell into the cistern, and by the time I realised what was up, the water was tasting real funky ! The plants were happy though. Had to pump it out and clean the tank !

do you think it is possible for that front to pick up the storm and turn it out to sea before it even makes landfall...i mean if it stays stationary for awhile it seems possible

Andrea may in fact be just West or on the Western edge of the Gulf stream and not really benefitting from its heat content. The increase in convection last night and this morning while it was moving W probably had a lot to do with its then location relative to that heat source. I suspect it may have moved far enough West to be back over much cooler water, hence the poor presentation

I think the storm weakened and is now getting better...that water vapor image looks better....

right on que dinural effect looks like the convection while weak is trying to go over the center agian slight burst on north and se side looks like it still has some life.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/01L.ANDREA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20070510.0215.goes12.x.ir1km_bw. 01LANDREA.40kts-1003mb-306N-797W.100pc.jpg

Thel, I'm not sure how to read that ! lol

looks like we have "some" convection showing up on the radar.....

ok....Pottery, hope you get all the rain you want! LOL

scCane, I think this has been a useful storm to study diurnal effects. The fact that it has stayed in pretty much the same spot for 3 nights under similar conditions, and is on the knife's edge of TS status, make it easier to sense that "bottoming" at diurnal minimum.

Me too, Thel. Thanks.
And the same to you !

I just checked a few maps on the location of the gulf stream and in the location where Andrea is it is actually E of 80 W which places Andrea on the far W edge or just W of the gulf stream. If significant convection develops over those cooler waters I would be surprised

its not getting better, its way too close to land right now, if it was 100 miles SW it would have a good shot at intensifying

There is some ITCZ showers between 20W and 45 W in the Atlantic, but no sign of anything but dust coming off Africa. Cant see any weather originating from that area for a while again.

kmani your paying to much attention to surface temps the reason it lost some power is due to shear not temps hurricane eplison stayed a hurricane with temps 70-75 with shear in december the temps now would easly be able to hold a ts together. I think the shear may be wanning slightly for the moment how long that may continue will determine its fate.

scCane

Was Epsilon stationary churning up cool water and making it even cooler ?

We got a cloudsat pass of 90L lastnight.

update sub tropical storm andrea upgraded to micro tropical storm lol

I don't think the storm is strong enough to chur up a lot of water and then the GS is a warm river that will keep replacing the cooler water that is upwelled.

I do agree that the increase in shear has played a role in its near demise but water temps are also a material consideration ( IMO )

RLennon
I would agree if I was convinced that Andrea was in fact sitting over the Gulf Stream. Maybe the E semi circle is in part but the Western half looks to be outside the current

like Rlennon said it is fairly weak and not churring up much water while indeed water does play affect it affects hurricanes more not so much weak ts/subtropical storms.

oh forget it - nice winds here in savannah - not much rain - a bit - maybe a spritz (god help the man dying of thirst). But for tonight, let me thank whomever for allowing me to keep my bedroom window open instead of paying the electric company 4 gazillion dollars a month for my ac. Also, thanks for the "oooooooo" sound outside. For a change, we're not choking from the smoke from the fires in waycross and things here are cooler. It's not all about me though - i am sorry for the folks who have lost their homes and are having to pack up and leave (both on this coast and the west coast). Have done it before and my heart goes out to you.

Thank god for open windows and a house that is standing. (oh...and thanks for the mallowmars too...)

I still say it's going north...lol

Anyway tomorrow morning will tell one way or another. Its been fun discussing this though. I appreciated all the different points of view.

good nite all

C U tomorrow

Agreed scCane

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A
SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED
BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.5N 79.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 80.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 80.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

StormJunkie as a great yearly track of the sst for the GS during the minth of may over the last couple of years and it shows how the temp is increaseing ever year.

I'm just hanging around for one more image...

" Because Andrea is expected to remain over cool waters it should gradually weaken .." LOL

Looks like the sheer is pushing the TS activity to the west. It will be interesting to see if she can make it thought this sheer period.

She's becoming more tropical, but dissipating.

Savannah/Charleston radar shows a nice blob of storms coming.

ok - cantore is in tybee...that's it for me. I'm going to bed before i run into him on river street. The guy needs hair - it would make it more dramatic - even if it was a sweep over...

www.buycantoreatoupe.com

lol

Nice Mel

(sorry - i love the guy for dramatic effects honest...)

Hmm, the expansion of coverage that all the images through 11:23 had, isn't supported very well by the 11:51 image.

Blah, I'm not staying up another half hour. It'll be what it's gonna be. I still think it will be there in the morning, that's the overall trend. We'll see.

Well goodnight all cya in the morning.

night y'all - i gotta go to bed before i get too tired - then i'm going to get punch happy and posting cantore websites.

Bitter, party of one...just jealous he's not staying in my neighborhood!

I live in North Florida and it was excessively smoky. This is the first time I can remember that our air quality level was "unhealthy". It rained ash for most of the day yesterday and part of the day today. The smoke cleared out, but came in before sunset with a dark sky with Andrea looming off the coast. No rain at all, just breezy.

Andrea's getting sheared apart, final advisory is likely tomorrow.