Revolt at NHC; tropical update
The extraordinary political turmoil at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued yesterday, with the release of a statement signed by nearly half of the staff calling for the immediate dismissal of director Bill Proenza. Front page stories in both the Miami Herald and Florida Sun-Sentinel detail the letter, which reads: "An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in." The letter is signed by 23 of the center's 49 employees, including almost the entire senior staff. Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.
The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this.
Tropical update
A low pressure system (96L) with a well-defined spin is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, moving westward towards the islands at 10-15 mph. This low continues to show sporadic heavy thunderstorm activity, but has been unable to overcome the large amount of dry air it is embedded in. It would appear that 96L's window of opportunity for developing into a tropical depression has closed, as wind shear has risen to 20 knots and is expected to remain at least 20 knots for the next two or three days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Model tracks for 96L, the low pressure system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
New disturbance off the east coast of Florida
An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida along an old frontal boundary. Long range radar out of Melbourne, FL shows a large disorganized area of showers off the coast. The area is under 20-25 knots of wind shear, and the shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots for at least the next two days in the region, which should prevent any development. The GFS computer model shows this disturbance moving off to the northeast over the weekend, but it could bring heavy rains to Florida and the Northwest Bahamas Friday and Saturday before it does so. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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actually...as a manager..lack of judgement could easilly be grounds for termination......but....JP...you pubicly bash your bosses..and how long will your vacation be?
If you weren't sure these folks are bureaucrats, then tell me why they take vacations during hurricane season?! For the few dozen people in that place that track hurricanes for a living, they should take all of their taxpayer-paid vacations from Dec 1 - May 31. I totally support the director and hope he is able to hang on.
Exactly.
Being on this board in June and July is like waiting for the music store to open so that you can buy Pink Floyd concert tickets (back in 1986).
LOL
used to get front row aerosmith tickets that way
Very strong words Dr M !
If jedkins is around i pulled up some rainfall data for him and working on yesterdays rainfall as well.........
96L is still fighting.........
Question for all you weather enthusiasts......Does anyone remember where KATRINA came from, out of what disturbance? Does anyone remember that there was a little wantabe depression chugging along the atlantic with similar hostile environment as 96L..... Actually the depression like storm was completely dismissed by almost everyone and then it reappeared north of Puerto Rico.....Does anyone remember that?
Looks like the future of 96L is very unlikely
Posted By: bigtrucker at 2:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
the politics in the NHC is getting worse than our governments. scary part is we dont get a chance to vote these people in or out
Ummmmmmmm Bigtrucker, the politics at NHC are like the government because IT IS part of the government.
It works this way in just about every other governmental organization, but for whatever reason, this one is getting more press than most do, probably due to the recent spate of intense hurricanes in the past few seasons......
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Oh, and in response to the poster who said something about some people at NHC being on vacation this time of year. Keep in mind the short July 4th holiday, which some may have stretched into a long weekend. And there is nothing doing in the tropics.
I recall Max Mayfield on ABC 10 a few weeks refuting the whole Quicksat mess
Question for all you weather enthusiasts......Does anyone remember where KATRINA came from, out of what disturbance? Does anyone remember that there was a little wantabe depression chugging along the atlantic with similar hostile environment as 96L..... Actually the depression like storm was completely dismissed by almost everyone and then it reappeared north of Puerto Rico.....Does anyone remember that?
.
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I remember weatherboy. But what you write is not true. That's revisionist history. This board in general roots on any patch of clouds that it can latch on to and dreams about the possibilities. Katrina was no different. I think maybe 1 or 2 wrote her off. The rest rooted her on.
How many souls can the wundergrond chew up and spit out? Im done here mostly.Its futile...Ive banged these keys for a year. With little result for the area to show for it. I might have raised a lil conscience levels..and the overall response has been welcomed. I choose to continue in another vein mostly.
It pains me to see someone "elevate" their cause..at the expense of a public trust ..or an Individual. All over some Quikscat mis quotes.
Crazy. I think politics and forecasting is like Oil and vinager. They never mix well..till shaken. There some here in High places who think its their JOB to shake. Instead of doing what the PHD they hold calls for.... Thanks
Could the NHC staff walk out on the job if Proenza is not ousted?
Could they? yes, but it would be terribly unprofessional and I'm unsure of their AFGE (American Federation of Government Employees - i.e. the FedGov workers union) standing or if they are even members, some won't be. If they are contractors, they can leave at any time, but that risks their employment.
I'd say that Proenza resigns here sooner or later.
ummmm i know that mike, but We the people who fund it have zero say in the dealings
That's all well and good, but you don't have crap to say about the politics in the DEA or DOD or HHS or any of the others......rendering your points moot....
Now its all about money
Could the NHC staff walk out on the job if Proenza is not ousted?
Actually, no federal employees are not allowed to strike and in fact it is against the law for federal employees to strike. This came about when postal workers went on strike in the early 1980s when Reagan was in office.
Proenza has said this morning that he is not going to resign.
So did Nixon :-D
The damage is done to the Public trust for this season.Regardless if Bill stays or goes.
The Public trust is not ..was not..and continues not to be the focus as it should. Instead. We have a glitzie Insider Edition of the NHC.
Sad.dad days...
i guess your right mike, ive been mooted all the time.. LOL I guess what Im trying to say is i wish our money was better spent on saving lives than a few remarks made about an agimg satellite that far exceeded its life span
Now there I agree with you. This leads me back to what I said a couple days ago - mainly, I said Proenza wasn't the person certain elements of NHC wanted to lead them.
This happens every once in a while, but I've not really ever seen it public like this. Normally these things tend to stay internal.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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