Sea ice in the Arctic continues its record decline, thanks to unusually cloud-free conditions and above-average temperatures. For August 21, the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated that fully one third of the Arctic ice cap was missing, compared to the average levels observed on that date from 1979-2000. Sea ice extent was 4.92 million square kilometers on August 21, and the 1979-2000 average for the date was about 7.3 million square kilometers. Arctic sea ice has fallen below the record low absolute minimum of 4.92 million square kilometers set in 2005 by about 8%, with another 3-5 weeks of the melting season still remaining. Reliable records of sea ice coverage go back to 1979.
Figure 1. Extent of the polar sea ice on August 21, compared to the average for the date from the 1979-2000 period (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
With one third of the Arctic ice cap already gone, and another month of melting to go, we need to consider what effect this will have on weather, climate, and sea level rise. Well, we don't need to worry about sea level rise, since the polar sea ice is already in the ocean, and won't appreciably change sea level when it melts. However, the remarkable melting of the ice cap will likely lead to unusual weather patterns this fall and winter. The lack of sea ice will put much more heat and moisture into the polar atmosphere, affecting the path of the jet stream and the resultant storm tracks. Expect a much-delayed arrival of winter to the Northern Hemisphere again this year, which may lead to further accelerated melting of the ice cap in future years.
Last week, I remarked that the most recent images from the North Pole webcam show plenty of melt water and rainy conditions near the Pole. It turns out that was misleading, since the webcam is on a ship that was headed towards the pole, but had not reached it. There have been rainy conditions at the Pole this summer, and there is some open water there, but this is not uncommon in summer. Shifting ice frequently opens up leads (cracks) with open sea water at the Pole. It was one of these open leads that British swimmer Lewis Gordon Pugh swam in for 18 minutes this July to draw attention to global climate change.
Figure 2. Total rainfall from August 10-22 as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.
Midwest flooding
To get an idea of the magnitude of the flooding that has hit the Midwestern U.S. during the past ten days, take a look at the total amount of rain from August 10-22 (Figure 2). We can blame Tropical Storm Erin for the rain in Texas and Oklahoma (up to 11 inches), and for the nine flooding deaths that occurred in those states. However, the unbelievable rain amounts in excess of 20 inches in Minnesota and Wisconsin were primarily due to a frontal system--with the help of some copious moisture pumped northwards by the counter-clockwise circulation around Erin while it spun over Oklahoma.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. Two of our four reliable forecast models, the NOGAPS and ECMWF, are predicting that a tropical depression could form off the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. The models forecast that this system would move inland over Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday.
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Bulldozer trying to clear sand and debris from Norman Manley Highway(Airport Road)
The flood is over, now the cleanup
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I really am interested in knowing "how" we can cut back. If you are inferring we as a population are responsible, then how are we to change our lives?
Oh, darlin', it's the little things: carpool, set your thermometer up, combine some trips, just little changes that make you feel like you're making an impact. I'm not talking about giving up electric. I did that for 18 days in '05 after the hurricanes and I wouldn't wish that on my enemies (well, maybe Al-quida)sp
It's easy to dismiss the data and deny what's happening, but it is real"
sceerdy, I'm in a position that I get to see all of the data and all of the data is just not there.
We really do not know enough about it to make any claims, one way or the other.
About all we can honestly say at this point in time is that it seems that it might be a trend, or not.
You probably missed my post from a few pages back.
All of the global warming models have figured cirrus clouds as a positive loop. That is more heat creates more cirrus clouds, and that produces more heat, etc. A positive feedback loop.
Just this month, Dr. Roy Spencer released proof that cirrus clouds are a negative feedback loop.
What does that do to all the hard data so far?
Yep, I think I'l give up eating chilli. :)
In the Viking Sagas, it explicitly says that Erik the Red named Greenland that because he thought more people would be likely to settle there with that name.
Accounts indicate that the ice sheet was not smaller than it was today.
This is just so incredibly untrue. Wow.
AinFL,
You said "But when there is absolutley positiviely diddly squat to discuss, (at the moment)you just have to ask yourself, geez,, lighten up a litle. That's all. I think your anger is somewhat misdirected."
I don't know if the person u were quoting originally felt they were discussing nothing or not - really doesn't matter to me in one sense. I was really responding to the dismissive, "superior" tone of your response.
And actually, I wasn't angry at all. In fact, I was poking fun at YOUR comments. I had a good time, too.
I had an English teacher once. He told us that if you can't take it, don't dish it out (usually while he was dissing us to the max). And he was a man of his word, too.
You asked me to light up. I really, REALLY did. Hope you can do the same . . .
What're you 12 ??? (now that's sarcasm)
Someone call forecaster Avila and tell him to hit send!
Laughing out loud!
I figure people overall need to stop being so wasteful with resources. In one sense it is the flip side of lack of preparation for hurricanes. The underlying concept is "there IS no tomorrow" - well, a bit crude, but u get my drift - so I have to spend today; I have to impress everybody right now; I dont' need to prepare for something that will never happen. Unfortunately where people don't "respect the earth" and just use it up and destroy it, they end up with nothing. The best part of the GW publicity is that it is making at least some people more conscious of how they use land and other resources.
Of course on the other hand you have those who simply cast blame but change nothing about the way they live . . .
AINT SPIT HAPPENING
LATER TATERS...
The problem I see, like Dr. Masters said, "Expect a much-delayed arrival of winter to the Northern Hemisphere again this year, which may lead to further accelerated melting of the ice cap in future years,"however, is that this problme is going to keep steam rolling. Unless the planet moves farther from the sun or the sun itself cools off, there is no way to stop this from steam rolling since the balanace seems upset.
Hmmmm....I wonder why Dr. Masters puts these topics in his post?"
To have a discussion.
I lived in Florida for 15 years NOT using AC (I had it) in my house or in my car. Not for conservation purposes - I just didn't think it was that bad without it. And went through Frances and Jean 7 days each without electricity (and no water from the well) - actually thought it was fun. Of course I was prepared.
I guess YOUR house wasn't destroyed. Glad to hear it.
What're you 12 ??? (now that's sarcasm)
Don't I wish, as it would at least justify even getting into such a specious conversation . . . LOL
At least u didn't accuse me of being a 12-year-old TROLL . . . LOL
I'm blaming it all on the GW debate . . .
Anyway, I'm calling it quits on this line of conversation here. This is really not advancing the blog at all. Maybe the 8:05 will be out now and we'll have something real to discuss . . .
Wow, what the hell happened in here? Is this the weather blog?
What weather? We're bored!
WW's example of resistant bacteria is a trend that scientists have enough knowledge that they can narrow the causes down.
With weather, climate, etc trends we just flat out do not have the knowledge. Trying to reverse engineer climate trends - seeing an effect and then looking for a cause - when you do not know what those causes could be, and have no knowledge of what effect those different causes can have.
Wonder what took them so long to post it?
Wow. Those are some of the SHORTEST Twave paragraphs I've seen on the ATWD for a very long time.
Wonder what took them so long to post it?
They got stuck in a GW depression/discussion.
Posted By: sammo at 7:31 PM EST on August 24, 2007.
Wow, what the hell happened in here? Is this the weather blog?
What weather? We're bored!
Yeah, I suppose it's a bit slow.......lots of rain over south FL??
Responding to Latitude's comment
You can all sleep well tonight
That's partly why we still have such a hard time with forecasting weather even 3-4 days in advance. There are still far too many variables we just don't understand - and a few, I'm sure, we haven't even identified as yet.
Responding to Latitude's comment"
But these same people seem to have convinced the whole world that not only are they right, but they do know everything.
and they don't.
Cirrus clouds being a negative loop was just discovered this month.
Here's something one of my friends is working on...
http://www.pnl.gov/topstory.asp?id=264
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