Gulf of Mexico low nears tropical depression status
A large low pressure system (93L) over the Gulf of Mexico has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics, but is in no hurry to intensify. Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico this morning have been 30 knots (35 mph), so this storm could technically qualify as a tropical depression if the current hurricane hunter mission finds a well-defined center of circulation. There are two Hurricane Hunters aircraft in the storm right now, and they have found several swaths of surface winds of 35 mph. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle clearly show the storm's circulation, but the low level spiral bands are not well organized and are only slowly getting more organized. Satellite loops show a large, sloppy-looking storm. Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica, in association with a surface trough of low pressure. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel and Cancun on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The region will need to be watched for development on Sunday as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict an upper air pattern favorable for formation of a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Heavy rains from this system may hit Louisiana and/or Texas on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
Figure 2. Current visible satellite image showing 93L near the Florida Panhandle (top of image) and the western Caribbean disturbance (bottom right of image).
I'll have an update late this afternoon when the next set of computer models runs are available.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Does the Lower Salt content in the waters in the area make a difference in the intensification process of storms.....any data.
I disagree with you. The rainbands appear to be moving WNW due to the oblong shape of the general circulation. However the COC is moving a little N of NW.
congrats sophmom had alot of friends that went there,
hey jp its been rainy and thundering since about noon here 30 mi sw of lake o, do you think this has anything to do with fast moving carrib system?
97779 16234 60295 86408 04600 03019 21219 /0009 40230
RMK AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 20
LAST REPORT
winds @ last report 35 mph
I am in Pcola headed E on I-10 right now...
link or http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Aubiesgirl - where is band?
I am in Pcola headed E on I-10 right now...
it looks like it is on the walton/okaloosa border
126mph gusts being reported in New Orleans.
WHERE are you getting this information?
Could ya'll tell where this blob of convection in NW Caribbean could possibly develop into and where on the Gulf coast it could affect in the long haul??? Just askin' a simple ?, not trying to be a doomsday scenerio person.
Dr. M. talks about this in his blog.
(snip)
I saw the steering this morning and think that Louisiana may not be the destination of this moisture, we will see
This steering, jp?
Elsewhere in the tropics, an area northeast of Honduras is being watched, as thunderstorms are beginning to slowly organize there. It is possible that a weak low pressure could develop today, and begin to drift north toward the southern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.
Where TD10 is now, yes it would go to the NE. If TD 10 picks up speed and moves on out quickly the steering around the E side of the low would move out with it.
that would be the one seminoles
all that moisture is riding NNE, some is over the state of Florida going due north
and there is a ton more over Cuba and just south of there
jp if the caribiean blob goes north and get in the fla striaghts can it develope quickley and will td 10 cause it to ne over fla thanks
I had to pay my hurricane deductible if it was a tornado that did the damage (I live on the AL/FL line). Interesting answer. According to Farmers Insurance, you DO have to pay the hurricane deductible if the NHC has designated it a hurricane. If it is a named tropical storm you DO NOT have to pay the deductible. Since TD10 seems to be brushing the coast, if I have any damage, I will be reporting IMMEDIATELY with a time and date stamp! Not truly about the weather, but important for those of us insured in hurrican prone areas!
I never got a response earlier..are the HHs up or are the going up soon?
the navys gone down and noaa are still up !
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