TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Because its in the Atlantic basin. The NHC has a responsibility of tracking any and all tropical threats no matter where they are in the Atlantic Ocean basin and the East Pacific out to 140W.
No Taz lol. don't email. Just wait, be patient, use the sites you have. Besides the NHC is the one that declares invests the Navy just hosts them.
or you can call the nhc
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AND YET ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
there's something u dont see every day
Because its in the Atlantic basin. The NHC has a responsibility of tracking any and all tropical threats no matter where they are
Very true - it doesn't have to be a threat to land, especially the United States (as most people don't really care if a storm is anywhere else); a storm is a storm regardless of where it is.
Almost everything that is imported or exported travels via ship. The shipping industry pays close attention to these storms whether they affect land or not.
Posted By: CanePredictor at 4:21 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.
Why wont the NHC label and invest way up north like that when it wont harm anyone? Besides we have other contenders for an invest declaration...
Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 4:02 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.
yeah just remember any system will at least affect someone even if it is just shipping interest....i think the ships out there deserve to know if there is something brewing out there so yeah naming this an invest was the right decision no doubts about it
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:54 PM CDT on September 22, 2007.
95L might knock of a name on the list.. Thats it ...maybe it will cruise by some ships LOL.
Here is an indication of the number of ships in the atlantic at any one time
Amver Density Plot Display
August 2007
Legend
Each colored dot displayed on the chart approximates a one-degree cell (60 minutes of latitude by 60 minutes of longitude) and is referred to as a "cell" in the legend below.
Monthly density plot totals:
Red Cells: The monthly plot totaled over 50 vessels
Orange Cells: The monthly plot totaled between 15 and 49 vessels
Green Cells: The monthly plot totaled between 5 and 14 vessels
Blue Cells: The monthly plot totaled 4 or fewer vessels
Empty Cells: No vessels
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NEXT 48 HOURS.
I love that statement when they have 5 areas they are watching. So in other words, all the areas where there are no clouds, we won't see development. LOL
they didnt mention the wave coming off Africa Taz, will you email NHC about that? Thanks!
they mentioned the CV wave...it was the thing they said was 550mi south of the cape verde islands
or you can call the nhc
Again, I bet that all of your emails go right into their Spam folder... you do not try to tell the NHC what to do... and you don't use the name Tazmanian when emailing them?
would you be mad if i said no?
nop i do not ues my name Tazmanian when emailing them
They mentioned it so you know it wont develop. They usually mention any area where development might look like it might occur, and then explain it. In that instance, they are saying development will not occur with that cluster of storms.
1-800-INVESTS
NHC hotline
LOL...some ppl may take it serious.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Thanks LC - I'm glad someone looked - I sometimes get tired of "it's only a fish storm"
I do as well. I've had always heard them called, "ship storms." This blog was the first time I heard or read the usage, "fish storms."
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