TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Subtropical Depression Eleven
Subtropical Storm Gabrielle
Subtropical Storm Andrea
whats the most Subtropical Storms in a season? is this the 1st time we evere seen 4 Subtropical Storm or STD in a season???? do we have a new record for the most Subtropical Storm or STD in a season?????
new blog on this
goodmorning everyone...
A few questions id like to ask and if people who actually know what their talking about could answer, that be great. =]
ok first of all...is 97l official or just suspected because its not on WU. Where is it?
Second...what are these DVORAK numbers i keep hearing about? what do they mean? and third...the way things are set up would any of these invests head towards Fl, or GA? I have family there...
thanks! =]
Ok, 97L is official, it is on the navy site, which lists the invests. Also, dvorak numbers are intensity estimates that show a cyclone or invests intensity based on satillite data. And right now, its hard to say where any of these disturbances are going
Navy Site: Link
Dvorak numbers: Link
What the dvorak numbers mean in terms of intensity:
Link
goodmorning everyone...
A few questions id like to ask and if people who actually know what their talking about could answer, that be great. =]
ok first of all...is 97l official or just suspected because its not on WU. Where is it?
97L at the Navy site
Hurricane Isidore
subtropical depression 10
Subtropical Depression Eleven
Subtropical Storm Gabrielle
Subtropical Storm Andrea
whats the most Subtropical Storms in a season? is this the 1st time we evere seen 4 Subtropical Storm or STD in a season????
Even if there was a record, three of those wouldnt count...because they became tropical, so they arent considered subtropical
Man this place is dead.
I guess everyone had to go to the bathroom or eat some breakfast lol
thanks 456 and extreme i can always count on you to answer my questions no matter how dumb they are...
Your welcome...and if you have anymore questions about the dvorak numbers, just WU mail me or ask me here on the blog
yes they do count they be came tropical later on but it counts when they 1st be came STD or STS
But, the NHC doesnt count them as subtropical anymore once they become tropical, as the advisory archive shows...but, if you want to count how many storms started at subtropical status, you can do that
I'd say the latter. Or maybe they're dreaming of Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo happening all at the same time lol
lol............
theyde be going - which 1 is which
Its 730 on a sunday...haha people are still sleeping. I should be sleeping now so i can have enough energy to cheer on my eagles later...we arent looking to good. =[
and they only have intermediate advisories when watches/warnings are up, so if 97L becomes a depression east of the antilles, we wil see intermediate advisories
hurry up 97l become a cyclone
let us watch noaa sweat!
Yes 456, it seems 96L is on its way to becoming a TD...but I dont think it will at the next advisory
i do
and i think 97l might
any model runs for 97l yet ?
Jeff Masters
this will be intersting
now we have std11 some where else. will he have a new blog?
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
this will be intersting
now we have std11 some where else. will he have a new blog?
Im thinking he wil try to post a late afternoon blog
HWRF model has been added to 97L approaching the northern islands.
I think that is the GFDL, not the HWRF
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
HWRF model has been added to 97L approaching the northern islands.
I think that is the GFDL, not the HWRF
Thats absolutely correct...Iam a little tired from work.Thanks
I think the secret is:
When it looks like it is quieting down (2 days ago) Watch Out, it will explode...lol
They got my email floater now up on SSD for 96!
Thats 97L lol
IMO I think we may have our next two named systems right in this image...Jerry will likely be taken by S-TD11; the two names after that are Karen and Lorenzo.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2007.
They got my email floater now up on SSD for 96!
Thats 97L lol
LOL....Thanks its been a long night.
Wow...if I recall correctly, the last time we had four systems active at once was in late August.
LOL, this is the most active we have been all season
Honey, that was the office, I have to go in..
I spend a few days away from the blog and there were 2 Sub-Tropical Depressions, and 3 invests!
Well, one of those subtropical depressions eventually became tropical, although never got named
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