TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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There's also NO low level circulation center (I see a few in here saying that there is one).
There's turning in the low level cloud field, but no center of circulation...
someone found a satelite on 96L earlier from the University of Colorado (I think). I forgot who, but maybe they will re-post it for you.
Sorry Colorado State
Yes, we know what you said...I said it too but you don't have to keep pointing it out to everyone. I'm sure you have been wrong before just like I have. Learn how to act in being right about something.
JP was right all along about TD10 yet I was wrong. When you are wrong about the next storm I want to see you stress to everyone on here time and time again how wrong you were just like you are now about being right...however, I don't see you doing that so do us all a favor and leave it alone and move on.
Shawn
No floater may just mean it's not yet within range of the satellite from which they run the floaters, you know. I don't think it's some kind of storm discrimination.
As of 4 PM EDT...
94L Link
Noted Baha. A subtle hint from these folks.
thanks-(still watchin tho)
Link
I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just guessing?
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
If its well-organized, then why isnt it a TD? lol
We had another rainy day in my area of S.W. Florida.
ok when you think that will be?
I posted a floater you can use for 96L a little up in the blog.
96L has dry african dust to the north...the only limiting factor
Yes, but since it is north of 96L, it shouldnt have a major effect on it
From the 5:30 TWO on 96L:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
If its well-organized, then why isnt it a TD? lol
that is what i amm not geting at all 236 it sould be but its not
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.
I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?
I, for one, do not make any uneducated guesses.
I'm sure I come to my predictions the same way any 'professional meteorologist' would.
Meticulous hours spent combing through data, which would include satellite observation, surface observations, model guidance, and personal experience.
I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?
Isn't it possible to be educated in meteorology without being a professional meteorologist?? You make the two sound mutually exclusive.
In any case, quite a few people here are making educated guesses (also sometimes known as hypothoses) even though they are not working mets. Others are students; maybe their guesses are "educating"?
I smell fish with 96L...Still early but could very well be.
It all depends on the high pressure ridges...too early to tell but its possible
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.
I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?
I am a 47 yr old Weather Hobbyist. Most here are weather hobbyist too.
Except some believe their post are to be taken as a Mets.
Those are often ego fed and not really in tune to the spirit of Dr. Masters Blog.
It is to share information and relevant links for discussion.
There is no such thing as a amateur met.
Always consult your local NWS packages or the NHC for Official information.
1-800-INVESTS
Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.
The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'
Shawn
Taz and extreme,
Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.
The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'
If anything it looks more elongated N-S, but I guess they might want to see the QS pass to see how the LLC looks
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