Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A sleeping giant: 94L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2007

A large low pressure system (94L) has moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is bringing heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. These heavy rains can be viewed on Cancun radar. Satellite loops and the steering flow product from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group (Figure 1) show the large size of this circulation nicely. This is an unusually large and deep low pressure system, and it will take several days for it to spin down. Most of the computer models are indicating that the center will remain over land and 94L will eventually die. However, the GFDL model continues to show the possibility that the center of 94L will drift back into the Western Caribbean, or into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, allowing 94L to intensify into a tropical storm. Considering the huge amount of atmosphere 94L has put into motion, it would not be a surprise to see some of that spin still remaining 3-4 days from now, and we will have to watch this system until that spin is gone. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next 2-3 days over the Yucatan.

Figure 1. Average steering flow at low levels in the atmosphere (between 700 mb and 850 mb) as computed by University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. The arrows show the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low pressure system 94L over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in the Bahamas along an old cold front on Thursday or Friday, then move rapidly northeastward to Bermuda. This is likely to be an extratropical storm, but could bring wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rain to Bermuda on Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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651. V26R 9:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
236 That blowup to the SW of Cancun seems to be developing some rotation or am I imagining that? Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

652. Bonedog 9:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
extreme the floater is password protected? you know the password? Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

653. extreme236 9:19 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
652. Bonedog 9:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2007 extreme the floater is password protected? you know the password? Hmmm....doesnt ask me for a password...thats odd Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

654. V26R 9:19 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
try it again Bonedog I got in on his link Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

655. Floodman 9:19 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
The RAMSDIS visual shows it moving closer to the coast and SW; to make a clean pass into the BOC it'll need to turn W...the spin moving ENE appears to be mid-level; anyone else see that? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

656. taistelutipu 9:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Thanks alot for the feedback. Bonedog, I'd appreciate if you put me on the notification list. Does this come via wundermail? I've been following the Finnish weather for about 2 years now but compared to the weather elsewhere it's not that exciting. We have some blizzards in winter, usually quite a windy autumn (gale warnings almost everyday in September this year), occasionally also violent thunderstorms and weak tornados in summer but huge systems like Kyrill normally don't come our way. There is quite a long way to go over the mountains of Norway and Sweden before anything hits Finland from the Atlantic. Late in 2005 I started to be interested in tropical storms after I heard about Vince affecting Spain. First I only checked the NHC page but sometime in 2006 I came across Wunderground and I've been lurking since then. A month ago or so I finally registered, the addiction won! :) Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 566

657. Bonedog 9:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
thats stinks. Oh well I'll try on my comp when I get home. Could be my work op system Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

658. V26R 9:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
try this bonedog Link Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

659. extreme236 9:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
651. V26R 9:18 PM GMT on October 10, 2007 236 That blowup to the SW of Cancun seems to be developing some rotation or am I imagining that? I cant really see much rotation...the rotation you may be seeing might be the system rotating around the low pressure once known as 94L Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

660. weatherboyfsu 9:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Geeezzzzzz....... You guys still on here.....Are you trying to become "regulars" ??? Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

661. Floodman 9:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
656. taistelutipu 9:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2007 Welcome! Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

662. V26R 9:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I see it Flood Doesn't look to be rotating around it, looks like it chuggin to the NE to me Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

663. Floodman 9:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Hey, Weatherboy...dude, we are the regulars! Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

664. icmoore 9:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Thanks Drak, I was hoping you would say you lived in Seattle or somewhere else.LOL Get well quick! Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

665. V26R 9:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
See Weatherboy, now you realize who the regulars are? Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

666. Bonedog 9:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
taistelutipu yes its part of the wunderground email and I have added you to the notification list. Here is a link to my blog if you would like to see what I have put up so far. Link Hope to hear from you this winter season. Welcome Aboard Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

667. Floodman 9:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
V26R, try the Carib NHC loop...looks more pronounced there... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

668. V26R 9:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Hey Bonedog did you get in on that link? Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

669. weatherboyfsu 9:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I was looking at the infrared over the entire tropical area...... You would think that we could get something going out of all that mess........ Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

670. Bonedog 9:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
V26R that link works and shows 94L I was trying to get the floater over the Canary Island system Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

671. Drakoen 9:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
664. icmoore 5:22 PM EDT on October 10, 2007 Thanks Drak, I was hoping you would say you lived in Seattle or somewhere else.LOL Get well quick! LOL. Thank you. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

672. weatherboyfsu 9:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Yeah...... A couple more hurricane seasons and we will see........lol Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

673. DallasGumby 9:26 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
640. TerraNova 9:08 PM GMT on October 10, 2007 I don't understand: how does a closed circulation come from winds blowing in the same direction? It's a very small island and the few avaliable weather stations are very closely clustered together. The circulation is centered roughly 100 miles to the SE of Madeira Island and due to the counterclockwise rotation winds are blowing towards the SW (from the NE) within the northwestern quadrant of the circulation I just looked up the Canary Islands and found the following wind directions reported at different stations between 9:30 pm and 10:00 pm local time: North, West, NNE, NNW, West, and variable. Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 376

674. weatherboyfsu 9:26 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I guess i am going to have to spend some time looking around this site. Its changed so much....Might find some new goodies..... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

675. Drakoen 9:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Looks like the GFDL may have been right about 94L. What a model... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

676. V26R 9:29 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Its doing it for me too now Bonedog I was looking at that Canary System before Now it wants a passowrd too! They changed something Try this Site instead Link Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

677. weatherboyfsu 9:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Hello Drakoen,,,, Now he's a regular.... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

678. V26R 9:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Hey Flood I see it on that shot also Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

679. weatherboyfsu 9:31 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
So is Bonedog........lol Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

680. V26R 9:31 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I give up Weatherboy lol Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

681. weatherboyfsu 9:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Looks like 94L is firing up some t-storms but is moving SW.....not good for development......Maybe it will emerge out in the Pacific.....like the doc mentioned Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

682. TerraNova 9:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I just looked up the Canary Islands and found the following wind directions reported at different stations between 9:30 pm and 10:00 pm local time: North, West, NNE, NNW, West, and variable. Madeira Island is not part of the Canaries...it's located farther north. But according to those reports, the low may not be completely closed yet as the Canaries would be reporting westerly or southwesterly winds if it was....that, or the low simply isn't strong enough yet. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

683. weatherboyfsu 9:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Come on V26R.......Just messing with you......Its all good Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

684. V26R 9:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Aha But Alas Who is messing with who? Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

685. Bonedog 9:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
That is an impressive swirl whatever it is. Wish we had a close up floater on it and other things as well. Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

686. weatherboyfsu 9:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
So......V26R....Have you ever chased a storm? Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

687. V26R 9:34 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Your defination of chasing a storm please? Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

688. Bonedog 9:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Looking at this IR shot of it. I dont think winds would be reported from any island. The convection appears to be in between them all. Very tight compact systyem. Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

689. weatherboyfsu 9:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Traveling to a specific destination in search of interaction with mother nature....... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

690. melly 9:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
weatherboy.I ran from a storm.A BIG storm.F% tornado when I was a very young girl......Xenia, Ohio, April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 PM.

691. HurricaneGeek 9:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Traveling to a specific destination in search of interaction with mother nature....... -------- well i have done that..to go to the beach on a sunny day to hang out LOL Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

692. FitzRoy 9:39 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Taistelutipu, I really enjoyed your posts too - thanks for them. Back to lurking. Saff

693. weatherboyfsu 9:40 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Yeah ....Melly I remember watching video of that storm......i would be running too...... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

694. weatherboyfsu 9:41 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
This really doesnt show the canary islands all that well Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

695. weatherboyfsu 9:42 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

696. melly 9:42 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
weatherboy.I laid in a ditch that I was thrown into on my way home from school. My face was pelleted with grave.Many friends died. I could get home, My parents were frantic.

697. V26R 9:42 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
check your mail weatherboy Nope not a chaser Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759

698. Tazmanian 9:43 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
huh???? 10/1800 UTC 31.6N 15.4W T1.5/1.5 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

699. TheCaneWhisperer 9:44 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
If one pays attention to the models, it looks like 3/4 of October will be quiet. Nothing of interest in any of them. CMC maybe but, take that for what it's worth. Definatly not the front page news I seen last week in the Palm Beach Post. They must have a deal with Home Depot, lol.

700. weatherboyfsu 9:44 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Yeah.......I agree....Not a chaser.........nothing wrong with that...... Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025

701. TerraNova 9:45 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Yep Taz, it's a new storm that appears to be aquiring tropical characteristics north of the Canary Islands. The Navy site doesn't have it up yet and the 5:30 TWO made no mention of it. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

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