Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Every season is unique in their own way. This season so far will likely be known as the season with some rapidly intensifying-record breaking storms such as Dean, Felix, Humberto, and Lorenzo...it will also be known as a above average year in terms of named storms....and it will be also be known as the season of short-lived storms

Yes, I do. :) And I really enjoy the rush of an approaching system. I don't enjoy what they do when they hit but hey, I can't stop it if one decides to come here. I might as well respect and appreciate them for what they are. I'm just disappointed in this season and now that we are getting fronts moving through Houston, realistically the upper Texas coast is closed for the season in my opinion.

933. LoneStarWeather 12:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
I SERIOUSLY doubt that anything significant is going to develop between now and Nov 30th.


If nothing happens by November, I think you are right. But something significant is quite possible in October.

CaneAddict, why do you think I am trying to stir up trouble? I'm merely stating my opinion just as others have done on here. I'm sorry that it is not in agreement with your opinion but that's what this place is all about, right? Relax friend, we're all just guessing here and many are just wish-casting.

The only ones who wishcast are people who don't use facts to back up their claims. I don't respect them anyways.

well LoneStar, I take it you live in Texas LOL, but there are a lot of storms in many seasons that dont live up to their potential, such as STD 22 in the 2005 atlantic season, which was supposed to become a moderate-strong TS, of course that didnt happen...

This is true.

Yes, I do. :) And I really enjoy the rush of an approaching system. I don't enjoy what they do when they hit but hey, I can't stop it if one decides to come here. I might as well respect and appreciate them for what they are. I'm just disappointed in this season and now that we are getting fronts moving through Houston, realistically the upper Texas coast is closed for the season in my opinion.

Can I ask you an honest question? Why are you disappointed in the season?

It seems that unless a season is 2004 or 2005, people are disappointed. Even if we had a year like 1995, with 19 storms, I guarantee you that if none of them hit the U.S. (or very few like in 1995), people would get disappointed. Each season is notable for something, damage or otherwise.

My 94L Summary...

looks like season is over. anyone have a dif opinion?

CaneAddict , the weather here in Grand Cayman is nasty right now and from what I can tell is forecasted to be nasty for days, Can you give me your opinion on what may happen with the weather disturbance around us here in The Caymans, Its seems complicated to me like some of it might be related to 94L and also another possible developing system, please give me your opinion. Thanks in advance.

Short but sweet, ryang (no offense). I like it.

I personally think 94L will dissipate.

Evening all. Been off island for a week and returned to some real yucky wx. Heavy rain, lots of lightning and thunder here now and 4.5 inches in the past 24 Hrs. Have read up on the low over the Yucatan but Im wondering if there are any other LLC's in my area. Dont see any on Sat but have not had time to research thoroughly. Winds today have been from the W and SW which are very abnormal. TIA for your response.

What is interesting is that the season of 2001, which was quite active as well with 15 named storms, none of them made CONUS landfalls

956. SETXHchaser 1:42 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
looks like season is over. anyone have a dif opinion?


Yes I have a much different opinion...its October 10th and its not 2006

looks like season is over. anyone have a dif opinion?

Me. I don't understand why many people are saying this. I respect everyone's opinions unless they aren't backed up with facts.

However, there is still quite a bit of October left, and the western Carribean is a hotspot this time of year for development. Wouldn't be surprised to see the wave by the Windwards amount to an invest at least in the coming days.

Until this season is officially over, it is NOT over.

And even after Nov. 30th we have seen tropical development on occasion

we are having 65 degree nights here @ the GC, if it isnt over, its sure close...

Tonight i find the odds of 94L becoming anything significant at low as the GOM is now covered by dry air and most models are in pretty good agreement that conditions in the gulf will not be to favorable for significant development atleast in the GOM for the next few days.

Overall looks like a mess tonight with no signs of real organization as convection remains very scattered in nature. Adrian

Well, I think I answered your question in my previous post. I really enjoy the rush of an approaching system. Rita was a close one for us but before that you had to go back to Alicia for a real threat. Right or wrong, that's what I like. And as for backing up claims with facts, well, this is a blog and most people here are merely stating opinion. Sorry if you don't like it. But most of the "facts" I have seen presented here have not panned out into the author's prediction/interpretation of what those facts would produce. And anyone who thinks that they "know" what these weather systems are going to do will be in for a rude awakening soon enough.

KM, you keep saying facts.

"The only ones who wishcast are people who don't use facts to back up their claims. I don't respect them anyways."

What facts?

If there were any facts, even the NWS and NHC would not be guessing.

965. hurricane23 1:45 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Tonight i find the odds of 94L becoming anything significant at low as the GOM is now covered by dry air and most models are in pretty good agreement that conditions in the gulf will not be to favorable for significant development atleast in the GOM for the next few days.

Overall looks like a mess tonight with no signs of real organization as convection remains very scattered in nature. Adrian

94L isnt even headed for the gomex lol...its heading to the caribbean

967. latitude25 1:47 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
KM, you keep saying facts.

"The only ones who wishcast are people who don't use facts to back up their claims. I don't respect them anyways."

What facts?

If there were any facts, even the NWS and NHC would not be guessing.

You have to back statements up with facts to a point. When the NHC and NWS make guesses, they base it upon facts...not just pure conjecture...and people on this blog sometimes feel the need to post things as if that is how it is without any facts at all

968. extreme236 9:47 PM EDT on October 10, 2007
965. hurricane23 1:45 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Tonight i find the odds of 94L becoming anything significant at low as the GOM is now covered by dry air and most models are in pretty good agreement that conditions in the gulf will not be to favorable for significant development atleast in the GOM for the next few days.

Overall looks like a mess tonight with no signs of real organization as convection remains very scattered in nature. Adrian

94L isnt even headed for the gomex lol...its heading to the caribbean

94L lol its not even an invest anymore as this ugly mess has been dropped by NRL hours ago and models runs have also been stopped on this system.Overall looks very disorganized this evening and looks likely to remain that way.

948 Extreme 236. Where is that? Sorry if that is a stupid question?

970. hurricane23 1:52 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
968. extreme236 9:47 PM EDT on October 10, 2007
965. hurricane23 1:45 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Tonight i find the odds of 94L becoming anything significant at low as the GOM is now covered by dry air and most models are in pretty good agreement that conditions in the gulf will not be to favorable for significant development atleast in the GOM for the next few days.

Overall looks like a mess tonight with no signs of real organization as convection remains very scattered in nature. Adrian

94L isnt even headed for the gomex lol...its heading to the caribbean

94L lol its not even an invest anymore as this ugly mess has been dropped by NRL hours ago and models runs have also been stopped on this system.Overall looks very disorganized this evening and looks likely to remain that way.

Well I expect it to be disorganized after being overland lol....its not surprising the NRL dropped it, and it may just easily not develop...but im not sure what it will do

Wow!! thanks for the numerous responses guys. { sarcasim} Guess the bickering is more important. One week later & the Blog has not changed at all.

Sorry if that is a stupid question
-------
The only stupid question is a question not asked!!
I like that saying, it's my favorite LOL

971. Needice 1:54 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
948 Extreme 236. Where is that? Sorry if that is a stupid question?

Remember, no question is stupid. And the image I posted was of 91S Invest in the South-west Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar.

Good night all!

Great! thanks you guys.

It was cool this morning in east Central Florida, fall-like (finally!) It's been a long, hot summer...

Caymanite,
If you want to know what's going in the Caymans, send KmanIslander an e-mail.
I'm not intentionally sarcastic, just tired, and still have work to do tonight (sigh...)

Here's a link to 94L...Looking healthy tonight.
Link

"When the NHC and NWS make guesses, they base it upon facts...not just pure conjecture"

They can not predict a el nino or a la nina, they can not predict the strength or timing of fronts, they can not predict if a hurricane will form, etc.

it's still conjecture.

There are no facts. If there were facts, there would be no models. There would just be one model and that would be it.

You guys are just as good at looking at the weather and predicting what it will do. I mean that.

Caymanite I share your views also, I'm no expert but some people here are very knowledgable and down to earth, It pains me to visit and see so much bickering, they key is to refuse to engage with those that pick on you. I remember when I first joined and expressed my ignorance of weather, computer models and such it was one particular person here whose name I will not call actually tried to make a fool of me in a somewhat diplomatic manner, I think when i responded and didn't take the bait he realised otherwise. It's an old saying but very true, the only hog/pig in the pen that squeals is the one that gets hit!

Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.
94L is what you get when a Wilma gets sheared apart. Yippee! Caymanite, The only one I saw in your vicinity was headed N over Central Cuba.

hey 23 i have a quick question today max Mayfield was on tv and was commenting on the la nina I want to ask you since la nina is getting stronger towards the end of the hurricane season do you think the odds of getting a couple of majors still are present or just some storms?

94 l is gone per Wundergound. no longer on the first page

From Forecaster MT 8 o'clock discussion:
MY PERSONAL OPINION IS THAT THE WAVE AT
70W/71W MOVING WEST 10 KT IS ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE TOO FAR TO THE WEST. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE TO BE RE-LOCATED AT 11/0000 UTC.
If he ventures to say "personal opinion" then why the heck can't he post his name?

...A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N15W. Forecaster MT

What is interesting is that the season of 2001, which was quite active as well with 15 named storms, none of them made CONUS landfalls

Yeah, that's true. 2001 was very similar to this year in that systems were more or less subtropical in nature at one point before becoming fully tropical, for examples:

-- Allison still had subtropical characteristics up until landfall

-- Barry had subtropical characteristics at one point

-- Gabrielle NEVER looked fully tropical, and in fact, looked more extratropical than anything

-- Humberto wasn't very tropical at first either

-- Karen was just like Humberto

-- Lorenzo was kind of like Jerry of this year

-- Noel was not very tropical looking

-- Olga was the same as Noel

And for further examples of how short-lived storms were in that season, similar to this year:

Barry: August 2 - August 7

Chantal: August 14 - August 22

Dean: August 22 - August 28

Gabrielle: September 11 - September 19

Humberto: September 21 - September 27

Iris: October 4 - October 9

Jerry: October 6 - October 8

Karen: October 12 - October 15

Lorenzo: October 27 - October 31

Michelle: October 29 - November 6

Noel: November 4 - November 6

Olga: November 24 - December 6

As you can see, none of the storms in 2001 really lasted a long time (I skipped over some of them, and just included the ones that lasted the shortest, which was practically all of them), yet three names were retired that year, the first of which was just a tropical storm that shared some subtropical characteristics. Also, nearly all of the storms affected either Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, or stayed at sea, just like in 2006. And as I said, several storms that year started out subtropical, just like this year. Even though the storms in 2001 lasted longer than in 2007, 2007 is much more notable (aside from Allison) because of its rapidly intensifying storms close to land and also because of the two Category 5's.

we are having 65 degree nights here @ the GC, if it isnt over, its sure close...

This cold spell won't last most likely. It's getting into the 50s here at night and I'm 60 miles inland in Louisiana, maybe more, but it might warm up. In fact, the forecast for my area is calling for generally warmer temperatures towards next week. The waters are still in the 80s in the entire Gulf of Mexico right now. Until these cold spells last more than a few days, the waters won't dip below 80°F.

I've been a silent observer on this site since 2004. I found it very helpful as I felt like a target on a map of hurricanes here in S FL. I'm not sure what happened this year, but there seems to be an arrogance in here that really blows me away. People come here to obtain information, not get the latest "soap opera" drama of the day. Is it over? Can we squeexe one more storm out before the season. I for one am thankful I didnt have to shell out thousands of dollars for another roof, or have a tree service take a 40 ft tree off my roof, or hold a tarp over a broken window when a failed awning gave way as the eye of Wilma went over my house. Be sorrowful for the storms that caused damage in MX, be thankful that nothing has touched our shores. The season may be on its last leg, so lets just focus on maybe a better economic year for alot of us living along coastlines. OK, off the soapbox now:)

Be sorrowful for the storms that caused damage in MX, be thankful that nothing has touched our shores.

Um... Humberto?

em Humberto?

True, but I think you missed the point of my message.

RJinBoyntonBeachFL more power to you,that's just the way I feel! Be safe.

Just want add we here in Grand Cayman dodged 2 big ones this year Dean and Felix and Dean did cause a lot of damage here, but after Ivan in 2004 it wasn't even a drop in the bucket!

The Caymens must be rather beautiful Storm. Lucky you. I guess it was either Earthquakes or Hurricanes for me (warm weather person here), so I opted for a little warnning before the house comes down..LOL:)

em Humberto?

True, but I think you missed the point of my message.

Perhaps. But my point about Humberto still stands.

Anyway, sorry if I did miss the point, I certainly didn't mean to by any means.

is the mjo favorable in the atlantic?
lately theres a lot of deep convection in the atlantic

good evening all

A little late to the party tonight.
Reasonably quiet in the Caribbean except for the heavy rain and T&L over the Cayman Islands

Still rumbling outside big time

There is a trough stretching across our neighbourhood and there is still a chance for something to try to organise given the anticyclone overhead, low shear and high SST's

I thought that by Thursday we might see some action so tomorrow will tell

NEW T.D.....at 30N,55W?...looks like a pretty powerful cirulation maybe a invest

What is MJO again?

The MJO, also referred to as the 30-60 day or 40-50 day oscillation, turns out to be the main intra-annual fluctuation that explains weather variations in the tropics. The MJO affects the entire tropical troposphere but is most evident in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The MJO involves variations in wind, sea surface temperature (SST), cloudiness, and rainfall. Because most tropical rainfall is convective, and convective cloud tops are very cold (emitting little longwave radiation), the MJO is most obvious in the variation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as measured by an infrared sensor on a satellite.

from http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html