Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A sleeping giant: 94L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2007

A large low pressure system (94L) has moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is bringing heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. These heavy rains can be viewed on Cancun radar. Satellite loops and the steering flow product from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group (Figure 1) show the large size of this circulation nicely. This is an unusually large and deep low pressure system, and it will take several days for it to spin down. Most of the computer models are indicating that the center will remain over land and 94L will eventually die. However, the GFDL model continues to show the possibility that the center of 94L will drift back into the Western Caribbean, or into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, allowing 94L to intensify into a tropical storm. Considering the huge amount of atmosphere 94L has put into motion, it would not be a surprise to see some of that spin still remaining 3-4 days from now, and we will have to watch this system until that spin is gone. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next 2-3 days over the Yucatan.

Figure 1. Average steering flow at low levels in the atmosphere (between 700 mb and 850 mb) as computed by University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. The arrows show the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low pressure system 94L over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in the Bahamas along an old cold front on Thursday or Friday, then move rapidly northeastward to Bermuda. This is likely to be an extratropical storm, but could bring wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rain to Bermuda on Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1301. moonlightcowboy 2:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Thanks, TAZ, I think it's a CAT 5!!! What do you think? lol -- 96L has a floater designate on the SSD site, but the sat hasn't moved yet, still on ol' 94L RIP. Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

1303. moonlightcowboy 2:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
jamnkats is talking about "this spin over the northern Yucatan", not 94L down south. Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

1304. nrtiwlnvragn 2:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Did I blink and miss a storm? 94L was over NW Caribbean, 96L in the Atlantic. 95L????? Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

1305. Floodman 2:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1304. nrtiwlnvragn 2:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Did I blink and miss a storm? 94L was over NW Caribbean, 96L in the Atlantic. 95L????? Maybe the Canary Islands thing? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1306. moonlightcowboy 2:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
No, 95L was about a week ago...about the time we had about four invests. It was in the nAtl, didn't last long. In fact, it was so far north, there was some debate here, if anything had ever formed that far north. Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

1307. nrtiwlnvragn 2:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Thanks MLC Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

1308. IKE 2:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
NEW BLOG! Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1309. flaboyinga 3:55 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
1298. StormW 10:44 AM EDT on October 11, 2007 I thought I explained it pretty well! You Did.

1310. stillwaiting 2:20 AM GMT on October 12, 2007
perhaps a new T.D is forming....13N,66W,nice convection ,looks to have a closed center and a little bit of out flow to the North and to the South..any opinions? looks healthy but small Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

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