'Noreaster Noel pounds New England; new tropical depression may hit Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

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Hurricane Noel is now 'Noreaster Noel, and wind and seas are steadily rising near New England and Nova Scotia. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 61 mph, were observed at Buzzard's Bay, Massachusetts at 1pm EDT, and winds at Nantucket Island were 43 mph, gusting to 53 mph. At 3am this morning, strong winds along North Carolina's Outer Banks pushed the sea over Highway 12 near Rodanthe, cutting off the islands from the mainland. Seas were 10-12 feet along North Carolina, and much higher in the open ocean--up to 37 feet at buoy 41048 a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. Waves up to 30 feet are expected to batter the shore of western Nova Scotia, where 'Noreaster Noel is expected to barrel ashore tonight. 'Noreaster Noel has already brought up to an inch of rain to eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts (Figure 2), and heavy rains of 4 inches will be common along the coast.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 'Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07. Disturbance 91L is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: NASA Goddard.


Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

Links to follow for 'Noreaster Noel
New England Marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Boston, MA
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nantucket, MA

Figure 2. Total rainfall from 'Noreaster Noel.


New tropical depression could form near Nicaragua
A region of disturbed weather that was the southern portion of Hurricane Noel's rainy regime has acquired a spin of its own, and appears to be organizing into a tropical depression. This disturbance has been labeled "91L" by NHC today. Wind shear is about 10 knots over 91L, and is expected to be 10-20 knots through Monday. This should allow the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before it makes landfall over Nicaragua on Monday. Heavy rains will begin to affect northeastern Nicaragua tonight and spread into northeast Honduras on Sunday. Total rain amounts of 4-8 inches are likely by Tuesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Sunday afternoon.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Raise the Roof (DRWeather)
LDD-DR employees and neighbors help the Valerio Family repair their home.
Raise the Roof
Waves from Noel (jimbrickett)
Taken at 1500 (3 PM) at Lynnhaven Inlet on the Chesapeake Bay - waves from Hurricane Noel
Waves from Noel

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609. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
new blog up
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
608. lindenii
2:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
So...

Now that Noel is gone...

What are the YTD ACE numbers?

607. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:27 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
Atlantic coast marine weather from Enviro/Canada Link
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
606. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:14 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
Environment Canada Weather Forecast
Marine Forecast issued for Gulf-Magdalen.
Issued: 10.00 AM AST Sunday 04 November 2007. Synopsis:
At forecast time post-tropical storm Noel was located north of western Prince Edward Island. It is forecast to pass into the Labrador Sea overnight. The area of gale force winds extends well out from the low covering almost the entire marine district.
Nearer the centre winds become gale to storm force east to southeasterlies ahead of it and shift rapidly to storm force westerlies in its wake. Winds will gradually diminish to strong to gale force westerlies as it continues away this afternoon.
Generally light to moderate winds are expected on Monday as this storm moves well off to the northeast.
Tropical storm information...At 9.00 AM AST post-tropical storm Noel Was located near latitude 47.5 north and longitude 64.3 west...About 55 nautical miles or 100 kilometres east northeast of Chatham.
Noel is moving north northeast at 35 knots...65 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 65 knots...120 km/h and central pressure at 968 MB.
Marine interests are advised that storm warnings are continued for Eastern shore..Sable..Fourchu..Cabot strait.. Northumberland strait..
Gulf Magdalen..And Anticosti. Gale warnings are continued for all Remaining waters except Browns Bank..Georges Bank..And west Scotian Slope.
Mariners are further advised that very rough and pounding surf will persist along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today. As well rough and pounding surf will occur today and tonight in central and northern coastal section of the Gulf of St Lawrence.
Please monitor future forecasts for any updates or changes that may be required for this dangerous storm.
Forecast:
Hurricane force wind warning downgraded to storm warning.
Southeast gales 35 to 45 knots with gusts to 60 near the coast From Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence. Gales increasing to southwest gales 45 to 55 late this morning with gusts to 65 near The coast. Gales diminishing to southwest gales 35 this evening And to southwest winds 20 overnight and to light near dawn Monday.
Showers thundershowers and fog patches ending this afternoon.
Visibility poor in showers and fog. Little temperature change.
Outlook for Tuesday...Light winds increasing to strong to Gale force southeasterlies.
Copyright © 2007 Environment Canada
All Rights Reserved
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
605. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:08 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
coldify

another wublog technical term for Baha/Tampa's companion dictionary to Flood's Crow Cookbook.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
604. sydneyaust1
2:00 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
160 km/h wind gusts forecast or Cape Breton -
Link
603. sydneyaust1
1:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
591. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2007 Hide this comment.
Hey Sidney you still on? Just daylight here. Been figuring out Environment Canada site somewhat. I am one of those rare birds (in this nation) who carries dual citizenship Dad Canadian, Mom US, me born in States. Hows things in the other side of the empire?


Still here lurking ShenValley - I also have dual citizenship - Australia / UK - born in England live in Australia - it's 1AM here - I get no sleep following this blog I tell you (yawn) LOL
602. hurricane10
1:50 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
UPDATE LINK
601. mit5000
1:43 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
hmph!

noel has killed the season off!


its coldyfied the waters and ruined any east coast/carribean development possiblietyes
600. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
597. Thundercloud01221991 8:21 AM EST on November 04, 2007
yea we are supposed to get some this week and may even get a good dumping


How do you do weather maps? Somehow the Weather Gods don't seem to pay much attention to the 49th parallel. Dad used to be alternately bemused and frustrated with US weather reporting. He would have loved the web. True international citizen. Exchanged letters with friends on every continent.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
599. kmanislander
1:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
Actually if you look at the vis loop of 91L you can see the low spinning near 12N and 81W well to the SE of the convection that has gone ashore in Nicaragua.

The position given for the low both in the 7:05 discussion and on the WU home page are way off.

The low appears to be stationary at this time with very little convection over it but it is clearly visible.

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
598. kmanislander
1:29 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
good morning

Quikscat has the SW Caribbean low at 12N/81.3W approx and not near 14/83 although from the IR images it does look to be onshore



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
597. Thundercloud01221991
1:21 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
yea we are supposed to get some this week and may even get a good dumping
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
596. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:20 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
Thundercloud you obviously do cold better than I. Have considered moving to CA but all my relatives live in the Kitchener/Waterloo area and growing up in the mountains of VA I like something on the horizon to rest my eyes against. Not too excited about that Lake Effect either. Bet you get a bunch of that.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
595. mit5000
1:14 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
575. SouljaBoy 5:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007

Although it wasn't a repeat of 2005, the U.S. got hit by Humberto, Gabriel, Erin, Barry, and Tropical Depression 5. Also, we had two landfalling cat 5s and Hurr. Noel, which killed many people. Also, an Invest killed more in the yucatan peninsula than all the stroms combined. You can't say that it was an inactive and quiet season just because a storm didn't hit your area.

You've got that right, there was more than enough loss of life and property to go around this season. The Mainland USA was spared to some degree but the tragedies were still suffered elsewhere


td5?

dont you mean td10?
594. Thundercloud01221991
1:08 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
well first I was in IL then MO and now NY
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
593. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:04 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
592. Thundercloud01221991 7:59 AM EST on November 04, 2007
Hey I have duel Citizenship also my dad was CA and mom US


So in what part of the world did you wind up?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
592. Thundercloud01221991
12:59 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
Hey I have duel Citizenship also my dad was CA and mom US
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
591. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
Hey Sidney you still on? Just daylight here. Been figuring out Environment Canada site somewhat. I am one of those rare birds (in this nation) who carries dual citizenship Dad Canadian, Mom US, me born in States. Hows things in the other side of the empire?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
590. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:40 PM GMT on November 04, 2007
From Environment Canada (weather service)Link

St. John's
[ Newfoundland and Labrador ]
Currently

Observed at: St. John's Int'l Airport 8:30 AM NST Sunday 4 November 2007

Condition:
Cloudy
Temperature:
6.6°C
Pressure / Tendency:
101.9 kPa / falling
Visibility:
19 km
Humidity:
88%
Dew Point:
4.8°C
Wind Speed:
SSE 39 km/h gust 65 km/h

Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
589. sydneyaust1
11:44 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Hello Shenvalley - still here watching NOEL and KABAYAN - how are you this evening
588. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:51 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Good morning anyone else up? Reset clocks but not brain.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
587. wxhatt
8:45 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Just checking my photo for the blog.

yep, still a blank icon...

still says Approval Pending, and it's been a day gone by. Just how long does this process take?
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 917
586. BahaHurican
7:55 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
585. wxhatt 2:30 AM EST on November 04, 2007
test


Should I have studied instead of going out??

LOL

Hey, I'm just checking in for 2 minutes to see what's going on w/ 91L and exNoel.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22139
585. wxhatt
7:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
test
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 917
584. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:06 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
apan Meteorological Agency

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (T0721)
16.8ºN 123.7ºE - 55 knots 985 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
==============================
At 15:00 pm JST, Severe Tropical Storm Peipah (T0721) strengthened further to 10 min sustained winds of 55 knots and gusts up to 80 knots. The cyclone is moving west-southwest at 13 knots.

expected sustained winds 0600z 05Nov is 45 knots.

Storm Warning Area
==================
40 NM from the center of the cyclone

Gale Warning Area
=================
120 NM from the center of the cyclone

PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
=============================
Tropical Storm "KABAYAN" has gained more strength as it moves closer to Isabela-Aurora area.


Maximum sustained winds is 50 knots

Storm Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h)

1.Luzon Region
--------------
a.Cagayan
b.Isabela
c.Quirino
d.Aurora


Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h)

1.Luzon Region
---------------
a.Benguet
b.Kalinga
c.Apayao
d.Ifugao
e.Mt. Province
f.Ilocos Norte
g.Ilocos Sur
h.Abra
i.La Union
j.Pangasinan
k.Nueva Vizcaya
l.Nueva Ecija
m.Quezon
n.Polillo Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
583. flaboyinga
5:57 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Thanks MLC. Keep the lights on and the door open for the rest of us. I gotta go watch reruns on my eyelids.lol G'night
582. moonlightcowboy
5:52 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Noel surely looks fierce off the New England coast!

Have a good sleep, fbig, and all!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
581. flaboyinga
5:47 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Well, at the risk of being redundant........

em>554. flaboyinga 4:06 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all. Been a pleasure one more time. Later.
580. moonlightcowboy
5:47 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
573. Tazmanian 5:08 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
. flaboyinga all but 2 fires have been put out no rain this big H been overe me for weeeks now need to move out of the way or i will do it for the big H i want a nic cold rain and snow storm


big H you have in tell next week to move out of ca or i will move you out of the way on my own


...I hear ya, TAZ, may a good verbal and spinning assault will take care of biz! Hope it gets out of there soon! Take care, man!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
579. flaboyinga
5:44 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
576. Orcasystems 5:34 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
I have pictures in my head of some poor SOB trying to outrun this thing into the Bay of Fundy, not pretty


Education can sometimes be quite expensive, and some pay a terrible price to learn their lessons.
578. 2ifbyC
5:43 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Fox News is reporting gusts to 90 mph in the NE. Anybody have info?
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
577. flaboyinga
5:39 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
575. SouljaBoy 5:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007

Although it wasn't a repeat of 2005, the U.S. got hit by Humberto, Gabriel, Erin, Barry, and Tropical Depression 5. Also, we had two landfalling cat 5s and Hurr. Noel, which killed many people. Also, an Invest killed more in the yucatan peninsula than all the stroms combined. You can't say that it was an inactive and quiet season just because a storm didn't hit your area.


You've got that right, there was more than enough loss of life and property to go around this season. The Mainland USA was spared to some degree but the tragedies were still suffered elsewhere.
576. Orcasystems
5:34 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
I have pictures in my head of some poor SOB trying to outrun this thing into the Bay of Fundy, not pretty
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
575. SouljaBoy
5:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
570. CStaWeatherMan 4:59 AM GMT on November 04, 2007 Hide this comment.
Noel would have been the storm of the season if our wind sheer was not there to help us. However, the east coast was awakened by the pull of the storm showing us what could have happened if Noel had it's way with us.
I personally have predicted to all my friends that we would not get a storm touching the US of any magnitude this year. I based this on history. The earth goes through cycles and I also personally believe that there is no such thing as global warming. Not any more than the cycles the earth going through warming and cooling.


Although it wasn't a repeat of 2005, the U.S. got hit by Humberto, Gabriel, Erin, Barry, and Tropical Depression 5. Also, we had two landfalling cat 5s and Hurr. Noel, which killed many people. Also, an Invest killed more in the yucatan peninsula than all the storms combined. You can't say that it was an inactive and quiet season just because a storm didn't hit your area.
574. flaboyinga
5:18 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
You got it started when you said you had seen a greenie go over a flight deck of a CV.. I said to myself, been there done that.


The last one I was in we lost all the life lines and stanchions from the bow to midships, the radio antennas on the focsl, the forward pump room, sonar, and stood lookout watches on the 06 level behind the 6" gun director. We were on 610ft long CLG-4 USS Little Rock.
We got relieved late from the Med and the "Old Man" had to take the south part of the middle of a Nov extratropical (ex hurricane) to get us home in time for Christmas. We had guys tying themselves into their racks to sleep. Rock and Roll was not invented by Elvis.LOL
573. Tazmanian
5:08 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
. flaboyinga all but 2 fires have been put out no rain this big H been overe me for weeeks now need to move out of the way or i will do it for the big H i want a nic cold rain and snow storm


big H you have in tell next week to move out of ca or i will move you out of the way on my own
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
572. Orcasystems
5:05 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
You got it started when you said you had seen a greenie go over a flight deck of a CV.. I said to myself, been there done that.

Worst storm I have ever been in, and the most shipborne damage. Mouth of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.. less then 100 miles from Victoria. Shaped like a funnel to the sea and wind. 100 knot winds and 80 foot waves... and no place to go. We took them green up to the flag deck.. from the stern.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
571. flaboyinga
5:03 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
569. Tazmanian 4:59 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
dont for get to set your clocks back 1hr tonight


Thanks Taz. How are the fire conditions out on CA. Also how did you make out with that big storm you got hit by?
570. CStaWeatherMan
4:59 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Noel would have been the storm of the season if our wind sheer was not there to help us. However, the east coast was awakened by the pull of the storm showing us what could have happened if Noel had it's way with us.
I personally have predicted to all my friends that we would not get a storm touching the US of any magnitude this year. I based this on history. The earth goes through cycles and I also personally believe that there is no such thing as global warming. Not any more than the cycles the earth going through warming and cooling.
Member Since: July 28, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
569. Tazmanian
4:59 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
dont for get to set your clocks back 1hr tonight


good night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
568. flaboyinga
4:56 AM GMT on November 04, 2007

All of my time other then courses in Halifax was spent at sea on the west coast. Prior to that, I was a commercial Fisherman based out of the Queen Charlotte Islands.

Orca, you must have worn out a lot of sets of foul weather gear. wow
567. Orcasystems
4:55 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
I joined in 76 and retired in 98
If its in the Pacific.. I have been there.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
566. flaboyinga
4:53 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Orca, I looked back over the post and realized she was probable retired 20yrs ago.lol My cruiser and Mickmack hit Nassau at the same time. Seemed to be a great bunch. It was early 60's. It might nave been about the time of the Cuban Missile Blockade. y time was Atlantic and Carib all the way over to the Black Sea. Castro didn't want us down there and the Russians didn't want in the Black Sea.LOL
565. Orcasystems
4:45 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
HMCS Mickmack, no.. not that old.

All of my time other then courses in Halifax was spent at sea on the west coast. Prior to that, I was a commercial Fisherman based out of the Queen Charlotte Islands.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
564. flaboyinga
4:43 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
563. Orcasystems 4:40 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
FlaBoy, 22 years Canadian Navy here... Nothing like a Typhoon in the SCS to get your attention.


Hey Orca, good to see ya. Did you ever operate with HRMCS Mickmack? (I might have the spelling wrong)
563. Orcasystems
4:40 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
FlaBoy, 22 years Canadian Navy here... Nothing like a Typhoon in the SCS to get your attention.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
562. flaboyinga
4:33 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
I was surprised to see that front had pushed all th way down to Hispanola on the last graphic. I hope they don't get any more rainfall for a while. They need time to dig out and recover.
561. flaboyinga
4:27 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Thanks Skye. I use to be in the weather gang on a guided missile cruiser and on the Independence for a little while in late '63 to early '65 and I've forgotten most of the little bit I knew, but I still remember the wind plot flags. We did all of that by hand from teletype print outs. Then a trained met would analyze and draw the fronts, etc in with colored pens. The modern graphics are almost amazing to me. I'm glad they are there, too.
560. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:25 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
test
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
559. Skyepony (Mod)
4:21 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
(that map) Parade of waves has yet to end. 91L a "possible tropical cyclone". ECFL waves are down to 4-5'.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.