Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

'Noreaster Noel pounds New England; new tropical depression may hit Nicaragua
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007 +2
Hurricane Noel is now 'Noreaster Noel, and wind and seas are steadily rising near New England and Nova Scotia. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 61 mph, were observed at Buzzard's Bay, Massachusetts at 1pm EDT, and winds at Nantucket Island were 43 mph, gusting to 53 mph. At 3am this morning, strong winds along North Carolina's Outer Banks pushed the sea over Highway 12 near Rodanthe, cutting off the islands from the mainland. Seas were 10-12 feet along North Carolina, and much higher in the open ocean--up to 37 feet at buoy 41048 a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. Waves up to 30 feet are expected to batter the shore of western Nova Scotia, where 'Noreaster Noel is expected to barrel ashore tonight. 'Noreaster Noel has already brought up to an inch of rain to eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts (Figure 2), and heavy rains of 4 inches will be common along the coast.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 'Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07. Disturbance 91L is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: NASA Goddard.


Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

Links to follow for 'Noreaster Noel
New England Marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Boston, MA
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nantucket, MA

Figure 2. Total rainfall from 'Noreaster Noel.


New tropical depression could form near Nicaragua
A region of disturbed weather that was the southern portion of Hurricane Noel's rainy regime has acquired a spin of its own, and appears to be organizing into a tropical depression. This disturbance has been labeled "91L" by NHC today. Wind shear is about 10 knots over 91L, and is expected to be 10-20 knots through Monday. This should allow the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before it makes landfall over Nicaragua on Monday. Heavy rains will begin to affect northeastern Nicaragua tonight and spread into northeast Honduras on Sunday. Total rain amounts of 4-8 inches are likely by Tuesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Sunday afternoon.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters
Raise the Roof (DRWeather)
LDD-DR employees and neighbors help the Valerio Family repair their home.
Raise the Roof
Waves from Noel (jimbrickett)
Taken at 1500 (3 PM) at Lynnhaven Inlet on the Chesapeake Bay - waves from Hurricane Noel
Waves from Noel
Categories: Hurricane
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Reader Comments
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151. animalrsq 6:42 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Does anyone know how far those hurricane force winds extend out from the center?
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
154. V26R 6:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Krazy
Not sure wher you are located but in the NYC area most Local stations as well as the local NWS have been talking up the possibilities of
a really close call by Ex Noel for some time

As for the Hunters going in
They do go into Noreasters occassionally when they are not asigned to other duties
Especially in the off season, Seen them assigned to Maine for Noreaster Duties
Check their web site for more info on this
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
155. LakeShadow 6:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
hey folks! We got an invest out of that Noel residual...thats interesting. Noel looks like a beast...Bonedog and NEwxguy (among others) are in the thick of the precip now...wonder how they are faring. Noels track moved more westward. Still they are predicting a Canadian landfall...what do you all think?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
156. V26R 6:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Bone didn't really get any rain
I just got some sprinles here
Alot of wind earlier
Peak gust here was at 47 mph
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
sad sad sad....
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40597
159. TampaSpin 6:52 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
BoneDog is suppose to Email me pics to post for everyone. He is using his cam phone and digital camera. I will post as i get some in.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
161. KrazyKaneLove 6:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Thanks V264, I'm in WPB,FL. but my brothe-in-laws in MA. and our friend who just flew in last night from Mass. are not taking this seriously at all..He (the friend) just said last night that it was suppose to miss us..Hopefully they really rmped up the media on the news last night..not much time to prepare..as we lost phone contact by 12:30 with both brothers this afternoon.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
162. iamcanadian 6:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Current Conditions:

Halifax Harbor (44258)
Local Time: 3:51 PM ADT on November 03, 2007 Location: 44.5 North -63.4 West

Current Weather/Wave Observations
Updated: 3:00 PM ADT on November 03, 2007
Air Temperature: 49° F / 10° C
Wind direction (W Dir): East (75 - 84 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 27.2 kts (31.3 mph / 50.4 km/h)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 35.0 kts (40.3 mph / 64.8 km/h)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 8 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 11.15 ft / 3.40 m
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 11.2 ft / exactly 3.4 m
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 30.05 in / 1017 hPa
Pressure Tendency (PT): -0.20 in / -6.8 hPa
Member Since: September 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
163. LakeShadow 6:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
yeah the visible satellite lets on to more...I'm looking at the doppler right now and its mainly all off shore. Long Island's getting sloshed right now.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
164. V26R 6:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Tampa unless he came down here, He really didn't get much up where he is
He's about 25m NW of me
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
165. LakeShadow 6:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Link

new england nexrad radar
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
166. Drakoen 6:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Don't know if the system jog to the north a bit or is moving to the WNW...but according to this it did.

03/1745 UTC 14.1N 80.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
167. V26R 6:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Winds have dropped off considerably here as
well as pressure is rising some
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
168. TampaSpin 6:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Last nite he talked like he was going to the tip of New England. Had his vechile packed to go at 1am
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
170. MrSea 6:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
V26R my wund decreased about an hour ago but now is increasting again...we only peaked at 30 MPH though
171. V26R 6:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Tip of New England?
Not sure of what area that would be
Never heard an area up here being called that
If he's heading up to Maine, thats about 10+ hours of straight driving from here
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
172. Drakoen 6:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Good wind feild. You can see the turning of the winds around the surface center.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
173. V26R 6:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
MeSEa your out near Freeport right?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
174. JLPR 6:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
91l soon to be a td? lol
that would be amazing 2007 season suddenly got active once again
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
175. TerraNova 7:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
All is quiet in northern NJ...as for the coastline, I'd imagine wave conditions are dangerous and winds are higher but it's not raining anywhere in the state. Winds here aren't very high, probably 15 mph with gusts to 20-25.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058
176. TampaSpin 7:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
171. V26R 6:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Tip of New England?
Not sure of what area that would be
Never heard an area up here being called that
If he's heading up to Maine, thats about 10+ hours of straight driving from here


LOL he knew where he was going, but heck i don't know the region well. I believe he said something about I95, but dont recall.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
177. Drakoen 7:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
174. JLPR 6:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
91l soon to be a td? lol
that would be amazing 2007 season suddenly got active once again


I will have my outlook for November in my blog this afternoon.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
178. MrSea 7:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Babylon
179. V26R 7:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Ive seen drive awhile to watch some boomers,
So he might just be on his way North to Mass or
Maine
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
180. animalrsq 7:02 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
V26R,

I think he meant the Provincetown area.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
181. JLPR 7:02 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
great Drak
ill stop by to check it
:P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
182. V26R 7:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Knew it was someplace out there
Sorry!!!
You get alot of rain? We just got some sprikles here around (think) 7am
when it was really blowin
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
yes drak tonight it comes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40597
184. V26R 7:04 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Okay P-Town is way out on the Cape
about 6 hours from his house
Looks like close to ground zero for
Ex.Noel
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
185. MrSea 7:04 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/rtma/hr4/images/rtma_wnd_matl.gif
186. TampaSpin 7:04 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Latest imiage still on the 70W line

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
187. MrSea 7:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
only .11 inches of rain
188. animalrsq 7:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
It's been raining steadily here (just north of Boston) for about 3 hours. Gusts getting stronger but sustained winds aren't bad.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
189. V26R 7:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Okay guys I gotta get back to the Honeydo's

Stay Safe everyone
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1759
190. listenerVT 7:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Bonedog was headed for Gloucester, MA above Boston, which town sticks way out into the Atlantic.
(The home base of the ship from Perfect Storm fame.)

Follow I95N to Rte128East
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4778
191. JLPR 7:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
umm the same upper anticlone that helped Noel is helping 91l thats one strong upper level anticlone
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
192. laxin 7:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Some strong winds and waves here in R.I., I just came in from surfing, and the winds are picking up
193. MrSea 7:07 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
later V26
194. Drakoen 7:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
The wind will kick up soon when the storm center reaches you latitude. Nantucket has sustained winds near 50 mph gusting to 60.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
195. SquirrelRJ 7:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
I'm 12 miles north of Nantucket, it's blowing very hard here now and only getting stronger.
196. KrazyKaneLove 7:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Bonedog mentioned something on the blog about his route, I know he said something about going to the cape.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
197. TerraNova 7:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Surface wind barbs show up to 50 knots of wind at the surface southwest of the center.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058
198. listenerVT 7:12 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
KrazyKaneLove, see my post #190 above.

Gloucester is the little bump above Boston, not THE Cape (Cape Cod).
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4778
199. Drakoen 7:12 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Here are some observations:

Nantucket

Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 48 °F / 9 °C
Wind: 48 mph / 78 km/h / 21.6 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 60 mph / 96 km/h / 26.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.29 in / 992 hPa (Falling

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
200. PeaceRiverBP 7:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
From Chatham, Ma. (eastern Cape Cod)

Still heavy rains, winds gusting close to 50 MPH and seem to be coming at us from a mostly easterly direction.

Member Since: November 16, 2002 Posts: 70 Comments: 7165
201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
91l looks to be trackin nw into nw carb not sure what iam seeing but its possible this may be a second neaster that will come from a tropical disturbance forming over tropics looks nw into carb sw of island youth maybe 400 miles all the while developing briskly then trackin ne over youth west cuba lake o then up east seaboard as the 2nd in a run of four possible 5 storms noel being the first
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40597

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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