Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

'Noreaster Noel pounds New England; new tropical depression may hit Nicaragua
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007 +2
Hurricane Noel is now 'Noreaster Noel, and wind and seas are steadily rising near New England and Nova Scotia. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 61 mph, were observed at Buzzard's Bay, Massachusetts at 1pm EDT, and winds at Nantucket Island were 43 mph, gusting to 53 mph. At 3am this morning, strong winds along North Carolina's Outer Banks pushed the sea over Highway 12 near Rodanthe, cutting off the islands from the mainland. Seas were 10-12 feet along North Carolina, and much higher in the open ocean--up to 37 feet at buoy 41048 a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. Waves up to 30 feet are expected to batter the shore of western Nova Scotia, where 'Noreaster Noel is expected to barrel ashore tonight. 'Noreaster Noel has already brought up to an inch of rain to eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts (Figure 2), and heavy rains of 4 inches will be common along the coast.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 'Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07. Disturbance 91L is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: NASA Goddard.


Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

Links to follow for 'Noreaster Noel
New England Marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Boston, MA
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nantucket, MA

Figure 2. Total rainfall from 'Noreaster Noel.


New tropical depression could form near Nicaragua
A region of disturbed weather that was the southern portion of Hurricane Noel's rainy regime has acquired a spin of its own, and appears to be organizing into a tropical depression. This disturbance has been labeled "91L" by NHC today. Wind shear is about 10 knots over 91L, and is expected to be 10-20 knots through Monday. This should allow the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before it makes landfall over Nicaragua on Monday. Heavy rains will begin to affect northeastern Nicaragua tonight and spread into northeast Honduras on Sunday. Total rain amounts of 4-8 inches are likely by Tuesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Sunday afternoon.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters
Raise the Roof (DRWeather)
LDD-DR employees and neighbors help the Valerio Family repair their home.
Raise the Roof
Waves from Noel (jimbrickett)
Taken at 1500 (3 PM) at Lynnhaven Inlet on the Chesapeake Bay - waves from Hurricane Noel
Waves from Noel
Categories: Hurricane
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Reader Comments
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201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
91l looks to be trackin nw into nw carb not sure what iam seeing but its possible this may be a second neaster that will come from a tropical disturbance forming over tropics looks nw into carb sw of island youth maybe 400 miles all the while developing briskly then trackin ne over youth west cuba lake o then up east seaboard as the 2nd in a run of four possible 5 storms noel being the first
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40365
202. LakeShadow 7:15 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
wow cant wait until bone checks back with us.
Hey squirrel, stay safe!
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203. crowe1 7:16 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=both&station=KRIBLOCK2
impressive sustained winds
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204. PeaceRiverBP 7:17 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Chatham, Ma, again....

Winds just now getting stronger and seem to be switching to a more NE direction.
Member Since: November 16, 2002 Posts: 70 Comments: 7157
205. Drakoen 7:17 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
200. PeaceRiverBP 7:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
From Chatham, Ma. (eastern Cape Cod)

Still heavy rains, winds gusting close to 50 MPH and seem to be coming at us from a mostly easterly direction.


the circulation center has not passed you area yet. Thats why you have easterly winds. When it reaches your latitude you will have northerly winds when its to your north you will have westerly winds.
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206. Drakoen 7:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
I think i found out why 91L has made a jog to the north...
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207. seflagamma 7:19 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Peace,

I was wondering if you were posting here giving updates from your area in Cape Cod.

Everyone, she is up there because her daughter has a garden wedding in Cape Cod for evening.. and now Noel is trying to wreck the plans!

Peace, we are all praying that this will blow over soon for the wedding!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483
208. tiggeriffic 7:19 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
back for a bit, finally got my son in RI by text...said it is blowing hard and expecting 1-3 ft surge above astro high tides and several inches of rain inland on top of it...power flickers here and there but that was a couple hours ago
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209. tiggeriffic 7:20 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
why drake?
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210. SamTeam 7:20 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Tigger, did ya fuss at him for not contacting his worried momma? :)
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211. Drakoen 7:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Go to your Dvorak loop of the western Atlantic. Look of the east coast of Florida what flow do you see? Look in the Gulf of Mexico what flow do you see?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
212. tiggeriffic 7:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
when i called him, i got dead air, he said he could hear me but I couldn't hear him, then of course he was a smart @$$ and said he got the weather channel too. I told him as long as I am footing the bills, lose the tude and humor me!
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592
213. tiggeriffic 7:26 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
drake, got a link for me, popping in and out cuz moving M-I-L today and slight spaz cuz son in in NE area...
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214. Drakoen 7:27 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
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215. Miamiweather 7:27 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
drakoen so what affect would that have on the future track is it going into the nw caribean
216. Drakoen 7:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
No one answered my question yet lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
217. listenerVT 7:30 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Peace! My goodness, my heart goes out to you.
I love Chatham...especially the Cranberry Inn.
My brother has a place in D-port.
Is it you whose daughter has a garden wedding planned for tonight?
Hoping all good things for you all, and for all your guests.
Any contingency location possible, just incase?
Take care! All weddings have glitches, but sheesh.
Talk about memorable. ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775
219. SamTeam 7:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Pardon the lack of knowledge here.....I see a flow of something going southeast from Florida & I see a flow of something in the GOM headed south. They seem to be pushing 91L N....am I remotley close?
Member Since: September 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 209
220. PeaceRiverBP 7:32 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Thanks, Drakoen - winds seem to be making the switch, now. It has become noticeably more windy in the last ten minutes.

Gamma; Thanks for the good wishes! The garden wedding ceremony is definitely out, but hubby & I got back from decorating the Inn where the wedding will take place a little while ago and the ceremony has been moved to a large indoor room, in front of the fire place.

Unfortunately, I think the storm will be at it's peak about the time we have to leave to make the drive from Chatham to Brewster (from the south elbow of the Cape to the north bay-side) to get to the wedding. I really hate to leave the pets a lone in the motor home while we're gone, but we don't have much choice. Noel's timing is horrible! We can only hope that he's merciful!
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221. tiggeriffic 7:32 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
looks like the ridge is dropping south
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222. LakeShadow 7:34 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Drak I think I see a trof forming along the gulf stream...Im a novice though, so I'm probably wrong..
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223. Drakoen 7:34 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
The low level flow in the Gulf of Mexico is northeasterly while the flow of the east coast is west south westerly. In between the flow is a surface weakness giving 91L somewhere to go through for the time being.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
224. listenerVT 7:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Oooohhhh myyyy

The Nantucket Harbor II CAM looks dang spooky now:
http://nantucket.net/live/newharbor.php
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225. Floodman 7:36 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Good morning, all...so ex-Noel is movong off the MA coast and we have 91L in the WCarib (surprise, surprise)...

Going to get interesting yet again, though the season is over ROTFLMAO...where is the guy that said 91L was a bulge in the ITCZ?
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226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:36 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
yes drak just checkin a few things
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227. stormpetrol 7:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Anyone think 91L will be a TD at 5 or 11 tonight if not a TD already, I thought it might run out of real estate but I'm not so sure anymore looking at few loops almost likes it moving WNW to NW, also notice more moisture is building to the NW and the dry air retreating a bit, like I posted earlier these Nov, systems can be tricky but they tend to move NW, then NE exiting the NW Caribbean over Cuba and into the Bahamas, rarely do they hit the US directly, especially the stronger they get.
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228. tiggeriffic 7:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
oh snap...hugo hit at night so didn't see much...that is just ominous looking!
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229. listenerVT 7:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
tiggerific...so glad you reached him.

We're talking with daughter in Cape Porpoise now.
Last we knew her very expensive kayak was still tied up alongside her place...near the harbour.
Gosh, I really dislike my kiddos being in harm's way.
I'd much rather be there myself!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775
230. SamTeam 7:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
I see the wsw flow from FL but I don't see the ne flow in the GOM...Back to lurking, way more to learn before I jump in again :)
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231. Drakoen 7:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Looks like a close call...
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232. tiggeriffic 7:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
i just wish I was there with him or he was here with us...he is a smart kid but doesn't always utilize the common sense God gave him... in other words sometimes he is dumber than a coal bucket!
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233. tiggeriffic 7:42 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
still trying to figure that out tho since he scored a 1050 on the SATs when he was but 12 years old...go figure...lol
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234. tiggeriffic 7:43 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
eye still appears to be traveling on 70L
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235. MrSea 7:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Wind speeds all over Long Island were lower than expected...so far
236. listenerVT 7:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
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238. Drakoen 7:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
I am writing my blog now. Since i have alot to cover i probably will be done in an hour or so.
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239. listenerVT 7:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
tiggerific...

LOL! As my mom-in-law used to say about one of hubby's sibbies:

"He's brilliant but not too bright."
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775
240. listenerVT 7:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
StSimons...

...the left side of the storm as it moves up, traditionally the weaker side.

Apparently Noel is a non-conformist.
The west side has the heavy rains with this, and is the worst in general.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775
242. tiggeriffic 7:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
you got it listener...prob is he loves storms...only thing he is afraid of is lightning balls, and he has seen 2, that is why he is afraid...one hit about 60-70 ft away from him...the other hit the road and he was in our yard...blind him for a few minutes, said every hair on his body stood up right before it hit...somehow (blinded by the light) he made it into the house and I found him in the fetal position on the recliner saying over and over again "oh snap"...maybe that one dimmed his ole light bulb a little, roflmao
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244. iamcanadian 7:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
Current Conditions:

Halifax Harbor (44258)
Local Time: 4:49 PM ADT on November 03, 2007 Location: 44.5 North -63.4 West

Updated: 4:00 PM ADT on November 03, 2007
Air Temperature: 49° F / 10° C
Wind direction (W Dir): East (75 - 84 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 31.1 kts (35.8 mph / 57.6 km/h)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 38.9 kts (44.7 mph / 72.0 km/h)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 9 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 12.14 ft / 3.70 m
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 12.1 ft / exactly 3.7 m
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.95 in / 1014 hPa
Pressure Tendency (PT): -0.25 in / -8.5 hPa
Decreasing
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245. Orcasystems 8:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
The official track change does not look good for US/NB

Link
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247. listenerVT 8:09 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
tiggerific...
Yeah, that would put me off lightning too!

My biologist son once found himself on a tiny island near Cape Hatteras between a huge lightning storm and a waterspout.
He was very grateful he had an ATV along...and got out of there fast.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775
249. tiggeriffic 8:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
most scared i have ever been was in the mountains...saw the edge of the storm following us up the valley. jumped outta the car and ran into my moms mobile home when oldest was only about 8 and staying the summer at her place. I dropped him on the floor and started throwing cushions and pillows on him. all of a sudden we felt the whole place shaking. I looked up and saw the ceiling doing the wave...we heard the sound of metal tearing...then it was over...walked out the front door and the awning over her front porch was peeled back like a banana. Hugo didn't scare me that much...I was in a safer structure and not old enuf to know to be scared...
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251. tiggeriffic 8:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2007    
anyone have a link so i can check the bouys around RI?
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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