Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

'Noreaster Noel pounds New England; new tropical depression may hit Nicaragua

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

Hurricane Noel is now 'Noreaster Noel, and wind and seas are steadily rising near New England and Nova Scotia. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 61 mph, were observed at Buzzard's Bay, Massachusetts at 1pm EDT, and winds at Nantucket Island were 43 mph, gusting to 53 mph. At 3am this morning, strong winds along North Carolina's Outer Banks pushed the sea over Highway 12 near Rodanthe, cutting off the islands from the mainland. Seas were 10-12 feet along North Carolina, and much higher in the open ocean--up to 37 feet at buoy 41048 a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. Waves up to 30 feet are expected to batter the shore of western Nova Scotia, where 'Noreaster Noel is expected to barrel ashore tonight. 'Noreaster Noel has already brought up to an inch of rain to eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts (Figure 2), and heavy rains of 4 inches will be common along the coast.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 'Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07. Disturbance 91L is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: NASA Goddard.

Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

Links to follow for 'Noreaster Noel
New England Marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Boston, MA
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nantucket, MA

Figure 2. Total rainfall from 'Noreaster Noel.

New tropical depression could form near Nicaragua
A region of disturbed weather that was the southern portion of Hurricane Noel's rainy regime has acquired a spin of its own, and appears to be organizing into a tropical depression. This disturbance has been labeled "91L" by NHC today. Wind shear is about 10 knots over 91L, and is expected to be 10-20 knots through Monday. This should allow the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before it makes landfall over Nicaragua on Monday. Heavy rains will begin to affect northeastern Nicaragua tonight and spread into northeast Honduras on Sunday. Total rain amounts of 4-8 inches are likely by Tuesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Sunday afternoon.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Raise the Roof (DRWeather)

LDD-DR employees and neighbors help the Valerio Family repair their home.

Waves from Noel (jimbrickett)

Taken at 1500 (3 PM) at Lynnhaven Inlet on the Chesapeake Bay - waves from Hurricane Noel

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351. ryang 10:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
346. JLPR 6:21 PM AST on November 03, 2007 very interesting vorticity with the tropical wave in the Catl Yes JLPR. It's also developing some heavy convection. Wind shear is about 20 knots, but is falling in front of the wave. Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333

352. hurricane23 10:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Wind direction† (WD): 347 deg Wind speed (WS): 58 knots Wind gust* (WG): 77 knots Barometric pressure (BP): 988.0 mb Air temperature (AT): 48.8 ° F Link to see obs! Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274

353. dean2007 10:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Half a tree fell onto our house but no significant damage besides the trim and the gas tank cover were broken so it should be fine. No substantial damage as I expect the worst winds to arrive within one hour.

354. Drakoen 10:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I can't see anything in the Central Altantic making its way to the eastern Caribbean without getting ripped to shreds by unfavorable upper level winds. There are two upper level lows one northeast of lesser antilles and one approaching the southern lesser antilles also theres an upper level trough to the north. Look at the models and the water vapor loop guys... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

355. JLPR 10:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
that tropical wave may try to develop once it reaches the Caribbean umm isn't that area supposed to be really quiet? that tropical wave is looking interesting Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

356. Drakoen 10:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
yep Adrian finally that hurricane force wind gust. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

359. JLPR 10:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
thats what im thinking drak how could there be nice vorticity and convection with a tropical wave in November in the Catl its like out of date lol Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

360. bahabamaine 10:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=102&geographicalAreaID=19&siteID=1667 Horseshoe Shoal in Nantucket Sound 66.8 sustained gust to 88.6

361. hurricane23 10:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
0 chance for any kind of development in the central atlantic.The only place watch were upper level winds are decent for some development is the caribbean. Adrian Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274

362. Drakoen 10:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Nantucket report from the weather channel. Wind: From N at 47 mph gusting to 72 mph Humidity: 92% Pressure: 29.12 in. Dew Point: 46°F Visibility: 2.2 miles Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

363. Drakoen 10:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
don't worry it will get sheared soon... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

364. Drakoen 10:52 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Adrian nothing has a 0% chance maybe like a 1% chance LOL. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

365. JLPR 10:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
5-10 kts of shear with the tropical wave guys with some 20kts around a upper level anticlone may be trying to form in top of that tropical wave remember that Noel or 90l apparently formed from the interaction of a tropical wave and a ull i think correct me if am wrong, please :S i get confused some times lol :P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

366. Miamiweather 10:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Storm W do you think during tonights din max 91L is going to be a td thank you in advance for ur input

367. Drakoen 10:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
JLPR did you really read by update? especially the one about the wind shear... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

368. JLPR 10:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
yes I did Drak very nice I just dont trust models sorry I base what I say on current analisis and observations :) Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

370. Miamiweather 11:02 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
StormW thank you is the motion is still due west

372. Miamiweather 11:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
By tomorrow 91L would be inland

373. ecflawthr 11:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
the storm damage reports are starting to roll in on the taunton,mass nws site. mostly trees and wires down. there is a large roof blown off a car wash. i am sure the reports will keep adding up. Member Since: September 4, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 201

374. Sfloridacat5 11:10 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Can't get an updated wind report from Nantucket. The last reading is from 5:58 pm. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

375. listenerVT 11:13 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
dean2007... What town are you in, where the tree fell on your house? Take care! Hope that's the worst for you!! Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775

376. Drakoen 11:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
According to the TWC the worst maybe over for Nantucket. Wind: From N at 40 mph gusting to 58 mph Humidity: 93% Pressure: 29.16 in. Dew Point: 46°F Visibility: 3.0 miles Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

377. dean2007 11:17 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
It's not over for us here on the Cape and Islands of Massachusetts. The tree split in half and a smaller portion hit the house or just barely scraped it. Once the center passes there could be a little time of hurricane force wind gusts. That is more likely as an area of convection on the western part of the eye hits us.

378. listenerVT 11:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Everyone remember to set your clock back tonight! Good point, StormW! Gosh, imagine having an extra hour to this night on Nantucket. =Sigh= Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4775

380. Sfloridacat5 11:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Where is horseshoe shoals located? Is it located in Nantucket Sound? 11/03 7:20 PM 64.4 NNW/344° 79.4 49°F 989.0mb 29.21"Hg Winds still gusting 79 mph as of 7:20 pm. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

381. Drakoen 11:23 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
radar imagery and surface observations indicate improving conditions now though still the winds are high for Nantucket and Cape Cod at tropical storm strength. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

382. Thundercloud01221991 11:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USME0073?clip=756®ion=ne&collection=regwxforecast&presname=Nort heast%20Forecast&name=index_large_animated&day=1 beginning to change over to snow Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3644

383. Drakoen 11:26 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

384. Thundercloud01221991 11:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
btw if you are in Western NY we could be getting our first significant LES event of the season this week Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3644

386. stormpetrol 11:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
I notice the convection from 91L expanding to the North and west is the same track 91L will most likely take also. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

387. Miamiweather 11:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Does anybody think that 91L is going to be made a td at 11

388. stormpetrol 11:43 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Miamiwaether it would surprise me if 91L is made a TD at 11pm, unless the Recon gets there before landfall tomorrow, if it it keeps moving west a Td is out of the question in my opinion, If the NHC considers it a threat to the lower 48, then yes it will be made a TD a 11 pm, if not I doubt it very much at this stage. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

389. WPBHurricane05 11:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
8pm EDT advisory is out. Basically the same as the last advisory. Advisory Link Track Link Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

390. Miamiweather 11:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Stormpetrol you just said that it is going north west wouldn't that let it avoid land

391. stormpetrol 11:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
thats just my opinion according to how the convection is expanding, I still wouldn't write it off of the TD status just yet but "computer models" tend to rule roost. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

392. Miamiweather 11:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Stormpetrol i noticed that StormW Dr. Masters Drakeon and 23 all think that it is going to go into central america so I would go with that

393. HIEXPRESS 11:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
By GARANCE BURKE, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 56 minutes ago FRESNO, Calif. - More than 100 cars and trucks crashed on a fog-shrouded freeway Saturday... ...Thick seasonal fog known as "Tule fog" typically occurs in Central California in the late fall and winter. Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

395. Tazmanian 11:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
i wish it was winter time this would have been a big snow storm for evere one back E Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312

398. Tazmanian 11:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
why is MR No not a big snow storm for the E coast??? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312

400. Tazmanian 12:01 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
LOL stormW how can he post in your blog if you have the commets turn off??? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312

401. Skyepony (Mod) 12:01 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
Mostly Noel storm reports in the USA Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

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