Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Tuesday Outbreak damage surveys find five EF-4 tornadoes

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:21 PM GMT on February 07, 2008

Residents of the South continue to mourn the dead and clean up the tremendous destruction wrought by the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak. Tennessee suffered the most, with 33 dead, 189 injured, and at least 525 homes destroyed. Damage surveys indicate that at least five of this week's tornadoes were violent EF-4's on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with winds of 166-200 mph. The tornado that hit Jackson, Tennessee, causing $40 million in damage to Union University, was rated an EF-4. Another Tennessee tornado that hit the Morris Chapel area, killing three mobile home residents, was also rated EF-4. Northern Alabama suffered two EF-4's--one that hit Rosalie on Wednesday, killing one person, and a second tornado that hit Moulton, killing four and injuring 25. In Arkansas, an EF-4 tornado cut a 120-mile damage swath through the northern part of the state. Thirteen people died in this tornado, including four people in Atkins, and seven in Clinton. The NWS office in Little Rock has an excellent web page summarizing the Arkansas storms, complete with radar animations and jet stream graphics.

At least seven other tornadoes from the outbreak have been rated EF-3, according to the excellent Wikipedia page on the event. The Memphis metropolitan area was affected by an EF-2 and an EF-3 twister, and an EF-2 tornado hit the northeastern end of the Nashville metropolitan area.

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Figure 1. Preliminary tornado tracks and death toll from the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Figure 2. Damage near Mountain View, Arkansas, along the 120-mile long track of the EF-4 tornado that swept through Clinton and Atkins. Image credit: wunderphotographer dennisearle.

The total death toll currently stands at 59, across five states and 19 counties, with hundreds of others injured. The outbreak is the deadliest in the U.S. since the May 31, 1985 outbreak that killed 76 across Ohio and Pennsylvania (and also 12 in Ontario, Canada). This week's outbreak was also the deadliest tornado outbreak in Kentucky since the April 3, 1974 Super Outbreak. In Arkansas, the 14 fatalities is the most since 25 were killed during the Benton, Arkansas Tornado Outbreak on March 1, 1997. Only one other February tornado outbreak in the past century compares to the Super Tuesday outbreak--the great February 21, 1971 Mississippi Valley outbreak, which left 119 dead across the South.

Record heat helped fuel the tornadoes
Record high temperature readings were recorded at 94 airports in 18 states across southeastern portion of the U.S. on Tuesday, according the the National Climatic Data Center. The spring-like warmth, when contrasted with the very wintry conditions on the other side of the strong cold front that pushed through the region on Super Tuesday, helped to fuel the formidable tornadoes observed.

As new damage surveys come in, I'll update this blog.

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
Sunday at 8pm EST (9pm PST), there promises to be an interesting show on the National Geographic Channel called Six Degrees, which explores what might happen to the Earth for each degree of warming up to six degrees centigrade. The program is based on the book by Mark Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (London: Fourth Estate, 2007). According to a review of this book posted by climate scientist Eric Steig at realclimate.org, "Mark Lynas will no doubt be pleased that I very much like the book. To be sure, it is alarming, but the question of whether it is alarmist is a more difficult one..."

Jeff Masters

Mt. View, Arkansas Storm Damage Feb 5th 08 (dennisearle)

Traveling along East Main Street, past the Hospital...

Tornado Damage (grt973)

Damage from the tornado that came through Greenville, Ky on Feb. 5, 2008.

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151. Tazmanian 2:27 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
uh oh i see where this is going Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

152. hurricane23 2:29 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 840 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008 ...CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...SO NOT MUCH TO ADD EXCEPT THAT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORNADIC ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND THE SHEAR PROFILE ARE FAVORABLE. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I'll take the rain without the severe weather.Unfortunately it looks like things could get interesting in some areas across florida mid week. www.AdriansWeather.com Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274

154. Tazmanian 2:30 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
where not going to start a fight on global warming are we ??? beter yet whats not talk about global warming at all so far this blog has been global warming free whats keep it that way Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

155. hahaguy 2:30 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
yes it does 23. it looks like we are going to get interesting weather Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

158. sebastianjer 2:31 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
CO2 in our atmosphere :) Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197

160. Tazmanian 2:35 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
if where going to talk about global warming there sould be some rules global warming talk can olny go so far be for it starts to turn in to a fight then next thing you no your ban from the blog i i think we sould think up with some rules if where going to start talking about global warming Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

161. sebastianjer 2:35 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Dr. M Posted an endorsement of a National Geographic Special on Global Warming When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. I believe that global warming was introduced by Dr. M in the blog entry, if the Admin feels otherwise, please advise. Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197

162. Tazmanian 2:36 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
dont start you two Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

163. moonlightcowboy 2:36 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Oh, boy...I'm really LOL! Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

164. Tazmanian 2:37 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
yes last year but it is not the topic this year and its not the topic right now Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

165. quasigeostropic 2:38 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
yes sir mike......People are entitled to their opinions...no one has proof of man-made GW.....You have shown no proof.....just bits and pieces of historical FLAWED data! I never said that GW doesnt exist(I said it was unprovable)....I said man-made GW isnt sensible and does not exist... Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192

166. Tazmanian 2:38 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
STOP Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

167. Tazmanian 2:39 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
are you 2 looking for a 24hr ban??? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

168. moonlightcowboy 2:40 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
WE'RE JUST STARDUST! I borrowed the pics from LakeWorthFinn's blog. The scale is amazing. And, for us to think that our small, trite selves compare to the cosmic elements that influence us, is asking a bit much I think. I'm sure we have an effect on our planet, but I'm also quite certain that there are so many influences on Earth beyond our control that it's unimaginable. Now, I wonder how tiny and insignificant the little island of Bali was and how tiny the IPCC's findings are in the grand scheme of things. Comparatively insignificant! Yet, we find it harder to get along and harder to find basic truths. If we should attempt to rise to such greatness, I pray that it's with humble heart! It's not ACO2, that much is easy to see! When I saw this, all I could think was just...W O W! Yep, I think we play a big part in all this! (not, lol) Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

169. quasigeostropic 2:42 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192

170. Tazmanian 2:44 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
can you Please re move that photo Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

172. quasigeostropic 2:46 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Taz.....I like the picture....It just shows how absurd man-made GW is!!!!!LOLOLOLOL Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192

173. Tazmanian 2:48 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
this blog is about Tornados not global warming can we get back on track evere one Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

174. Tazmanian 2:49 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
and that photo dos not go with the blog can you Please re move it Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

175. sebastianjer 2:49 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
You know Vort the weather this year reminds me of when I was a kid. Seems like winters were always like this in the 60's JER Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197

176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:50 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
give it a rest already your so smart ur stupid Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413

178. quasigeostropic 2:50 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
TAZ....go read Jeff Master's header again....Here's part of it: Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet Sunday at 8pm EST (9pm PST), there promises to be an interesting show on the National Geographic Channel called Six Degrees, which explores what might happen to the Earth for each degree of warming up to six degrees centigrade. The program is based on the book by Mark Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (London: Fourth Estate, 2007). According to a review of this book posted by climate scientist Eric Steig at realclimate.org, "Mark Lynas will no doubt be pleased that I very much like the book. To be sure, it is alarming, but the question of whether it is alarmist is a more difficult one..." The rules say post whatever the blog topic is about......Part of it is about GW! Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192

181. sebastianjer 2:55 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
JFlorida Who said we did not want an open discussion? Why do you call us deniers, is that an insult or something? Are all the many scientist who disagree with AGW somehow contemptible? Please explain JER Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197

183. sebastianjer 2:57 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Night Vort Have a good one JER Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197

184. moonlightcowboy 2:57 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
177. JFLORIDA 2:50 AM GMT on February 11, 2008 Why are you not for full and open discussion? Hey, I'm all for it. Been doing it for months. But, some folks just can't openly discuss things without the antics - ref post #159 and so forth. I haven't called anyone names or called anyone ignorant, etc. I've got a few minutes. But, this gets really old. How about "faulty" (quite possibly fraudulent) data used by the IPCC to support their conclusions! Chinese Temperature Data Now Tainted THE FRAUD ALLEGATION AGAINST SOME CLIMATIC RESEARCH OF WEI-CHYUNG WANG by Douglas J. Keenan Wei-Chyung Wang has been a respected researcher in global warming studies for decades. I have formally alleged that he committed fraud in some of his research, including research cited by the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) on "urban heat islands" (a critical issue). Herein, the allegation is reviewed, and some of its implications are explicated. INTRODUCTION The work of Jones et al. (1990) is a significant paper in global warming studies (see below for details). In February 2007, Stephen McIntyre blogged about evidence he had found showing that it was "impossible" for Jones et al. to have carried out their work as they had claimed. 1 An anonymous comment on the blog then indicated potential issues with the closely-related work of Wang et al. (1990). 2 Further study by myself found additional evidence of problems. The evidence particularly implicates Wei-Chyung Wang - the lead author of Wang et al. and a co-author of Jones et al. Wang is a professor at the University at Albany, State University of New York. He has been doing research on climate for over 30 years, and he has authored or coauthored more than 100 peer-reviewed scientific papers. He has also received an Appreciation Plaque from the Office of Science in the U.S.A., commending him, "For your insightful counsel and excellent science." The plaque resulted in particular from his research on global warming. I have written a Report that details evidence that Wang committed scientific fraud. 3 The Report was submitted to the University at Albany in August 2007, and a formal inquiry into research misconduct is now underway..... .....Indeed, for anyone familiar with Mao's Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, the claim to have obtained substantial reliable data for 1954-1983 makes little sense. During the Great Leap Forward, tens of millions of people are believed to have died, but it is not known how many tens of millions. And official records of grain harvests were often substantially exaggerated: this was not generally considered fraud, but instead making the records conform with "socialist reality". During the Cultural Revolution, schools and universities were shut down and many intellectuals were beaten, internally exiled, or killed for being too bourgeois, and there was sometimes near-anarchy, especially in urban areas. Even as late as 1980, censuses were so poor that China's population was only known to within about 100 million. Complete Report. Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

185. Tazmanian 2:58 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
i wish the real Alec was back Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

186. Tazmanian 2:59 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
180. quasigeostropic 6:55 PM PST on February 10, 2008 If you want this GW debate to stop ask Michael "the Intolerable" to get us "denialists" banned!! Then you all can have a party! Action: \| Ignore User well dont take it here take it to your own blog Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:00 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
hello taz Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413

188. quasigeostropic 3:00 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
So seriously, why is the government squashing discussion on warming I think a bigger problem is how all of America's rights are going down the tubes......You dont believe me? Then just wait for the national ID card, microchips, martial law, etc....then America will wake up.....Anything that hurts the govt power will be censored....Especially if there are those that believe GW ISNT man-made!!! Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192

191. quasigeostropic 3:04 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Yeah.....scapegoat el nino and la nina! Have a good night.....Dont let the media and mainstream thinking cloud your abilities to think for yourselves!...Michael, become a police officer then you can arrest all those denialists!!! Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192

193. Patrap 3:06 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Hello Taz..Im back online..and out of the FEMA trailer. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:08 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
hey pat Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413

195. Patrap 3:10 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
hello keeper Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

196. moonlightcowboy 3:10 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Hey, Pat!!! Good to see you back, friend! I know things must be good for you now. I knew they would and I'm happy for you! :) Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

197. Patrap 3:12 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
Hey MLC..things are 100% here..and getting better everyday now. Thanks Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

199. moonlightcowboy 3:16 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
JF, it only proves that the IPCC is not as "reputable" as they'd have us believe. Plus, the majority (really, their sole evidence) of their findings were based on surface temperatures that can't really be called "scientific." When data from the satellites, which have only been up a few years, support the prospects that might be different. It doesn't matter what the models say or attempt to say about anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Simply because the UN's IPCC recommendations for reducing emissions ONLY applies to developed countries such as the US. There is only a short list of "developed" countries where restrictions and taxation apply. But, there are many more "developing" countries that are simply not required to reduce their emissions. In fact, in China's economic boom, new coal-fired energy plants are going online at the rate of one per week! The UN is actually encouraging output of ACO2 by not placing any restrictions on them at all and rewarding them for producing ACO2 and other gases as well. So, it doesn't matter what we or the US or similar "developed" countries do to reduce emissions for the planet - because the rest of the world is busy re-supplying the atmosphere with more anthropogenic CO2. There is no way (in my opinion) that if we tried our hardest and spent tons of money on infrastructure and sequestration to reduce emissions, that we could keep pace with the ACO2 output of the rest of the world. The UN has been feeding us Kool-Aid to stave off the supposed looming, imminent warming cataclysm in which millions will die. Yet, the very people they claim will die are the very ones they are continuing to reward for "warming" the planet! So, anthropogenic global warming is a fallacy, a hoax, a fraud - does NOT exist. If we were all in such imminent doom the UN should be trying to rally the "entire" world to stop the warming, not just the few that they are attempting to ransom for money in the name of saving humanity and the environment. Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:16 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
just waitin on 00 z runs good to here u are out of the trailer u in a house or apartment now Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413

201. Patrap 3:16 AM GMT on February 11, 2008
All things are relative..especially weather..to an observer.Here..the winter has been a cold one. Kinda like what normal is for New Orleans,weather wise for winter. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

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