Dean, Felix and Noel get their names retired; 13th warmest April on record
For the first time since the the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005, a new set of Atlantic hurricane names has been permanently retired. Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee decided to retire the names of Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix, and Hurricane Noel during their annual meeting in Orlando this week. These names will not be used again because of the significant death and destruction these storms caused in 2007. The names Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor will serve as replacements of the 2013 hurricane season, when the names from 2007 are scheduled to repeat. The list of retired hurricane names now features 21 storms from the decade of the 2000s, and 70 storms since 1954.
Figure 1. Satellite images of the fearsome threesome of 2007: Dean, Felix, and Noel.
The names for the coming 2008 Atlantic hurricane season are Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Looking at the latest long range GFS model forecast, there's no sign that we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Arthur during the last half of May. Wind shear remains seasonably high over the tropical Atlantic, and there is plenty of dry air evident.
In the Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began yesterday, the names for 2008 are Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Isell, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. There's nothing brewing in that ocean basin, either.
April 2008: 13th warmest April on record for the globe
April 2008 was the 13th warmest April for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The January-April year-to-date period ranked twelfth warmest. A weak La Niña event continues to cool ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The La Niña event weakened considerably in April, but has stabilized just above the threshold for being classified as neutral, during the first half of May.
A cool April in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April was the coolest April in 11 years for the lower 48 United States, and fell into the lowest twenty-five percent of all Aprils based on records going back to 1895, making it the 29th coolest April on record. Precipitation was near average for the month.
April arctic sea ice extent
April 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the eighth lowest on record for the month of April, 7% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. April was the fifth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. The past four years had the least April sea ice extent since records began in 1979, with 2007 having the least April sea ice extent on record. However, while the ice extent is not at a record low this year, the volume of the arctic sea ice is probably at a record low for April. The ice is exceptionally thin across the Arctic this winter, and the edge of this thin first-year ice extends beyond the North Pole.
I'll have more on Cyclone Nargis next week. The Southwest Monsoon has continued to push northward, and is expected to move into the cyclone-devastated region on Saturday, bringing heavy rains.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nice to see everyone.
You to, Just try to keep it cool in here, You will learn after a while, It is not worth the drama. I don't have a problem with you, Most bloggers probably don't either, Just cool it bud. Night!
I didn't until he started picking on Adrian when Adrian didn't do a damn thing.
I prefer to wait for something to develop and then participate in the discussion about where it's likely to go, will it develop etc.
It seems to me that the blog has become too competitive and, at times, far too technical.
Remember, this is a hobby. Nothing more, nothing less. If a hobby is going to get you bent out of shape try something else
Good night! See ya tomorrow!
Remember, this is a hobby. Nothing more, nothing less. If a hobby is going to get you bent out of shape try something else
Well said, kman. I couldn't agree more.
One thing I have noticed this year on the blog is that many posters have a tropical weather blog of their own, sort of competing so to speak. Far more so than in previous years.
Yea I have been noticing that too. Thats why I might not do a tropical blog anymore and instead focus on the Southeast region of the U.S.A. Then post what I think about invest, and cyclones here. I don't know why everyone feels they need to have their own tropical blog.
One thing I have noticed this year on the blog is that many posters have a tropical weather blog of their own, sort of competing so to speak. Far more so than in previous years.
I agree about the competing thing. You can be assured that my blogs aren't meant to compete with anyone elses, though; I just blog because I absolutely LOVE the weather!
I could not agree more. While some competition is good and everyone knows I love healthy debate. This is not a popularity contest. It is a place that we can all learn from. Even if we can not learn about weather, I hope we can at least all learn something about how to interact constructively.
Can I get in your boat pat :~)
Hope you all have a great week. Will be back soon.
Bye for now
Depends. Each year has different amounts of TCHP. But with the strong subsidence in the Carribean at the present time, as well as the very warm temperatures, it will not take long for ocean temperatures to warm up, and thus for TCHP to increase. That's only in the near-term, though; the long-term is impossible to predict.
Well, I think I will turn in for tonight.
Hope you all have a great week. Will be back soon.
Bye for now
Good night, kman. Have a good one!
Amen.
Cane, isn't it bedtime, man! You've already tried to start some stuff with changing folks' names, etc. Just post "your" stuff - the rest will work itself out without all the sanctimony and patronizing. Until you've been here awhile and have a clearer picture of things, humility is generally the best protocol.
Good night! See ya tomorrow
Look MLC! I did not TRY to start stuff with ANYONE today. I simply SUGGESTED that Hurricane10 change his name to help out the blog. So theres NO chance that folks will get confused between the Hurricane23, Hurricane24 and others. Similar handles after awhile can become confusing. So please dont tell me i was TRYING to start stuff, It just came out the wrong way to the guy and he took it offensive i guess, your stating what you said like my intention was to cause trouble. Also don't worry about my bedtime, I got that fully organized :)! And i have been on the blog ALOT longer then you may think, Anyway im not mad or anything at you MLC, I actually am glad your concerned about what i do on the blog, Making sure i stay away from the Drama, Thanks for looking out for me bud! Anyway night all! (MLC it's now my bed time :-)
No aspersions cast at anyone, and certainly not at you. But, one can't help but notice the proliferation of long, detailed weather blogs.
I am not saying anything is wrong with that, just that it may inadvertently be creating an element of competitivenes that no one really intended to happen.
Like everything else this will sort itself out. Because the season has not started it is inevitable that the discussion will focus around trying to predict what will come as well as to hunt down every nugget of information that may point one way or another.
In a few weeks the discussion will shift from what may be coming to how systems are or are not developing, where they going, will they intensify etc . All in good fun if we each do not take ourselves too seriously.
I am out now
Have a good one, kman, mlc, SJ, and JFV. Later!
I look foward to chatting with all of you here during the season.
You too, CaneAddict! Don't wanna miss anybody.
You managed to miss me lol.
Sun May 18, 7:50 PM ET
WASHINGTON - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject.
Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.
In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.
Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.
Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle.
What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J.
He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.
He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues "against the notion that we've already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming."
The study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent.
The number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and its neighbors — anywhere west of Puerto Rico — will drop by 30 percent because of wind factors.
The biggest storms — those with winds of more than 110 mph — would only decrease in frequency by 8 percent. Tropical storms, those with winds between 39 and 73 mph, would decrease by 27 percent.
It's not all good news from Knutson's study, however. His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent, Knutson's study says.
And Knutson said this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength. Some other scientists criticized his computer model.
MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel, while praising Knutson as a scientist, called his conclusion "demonstrably wrong" based on a computer model that doesn't look properly at storms.
Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist, said Knutson's computer model is poor at assessing tropical weather and "fail to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity."
Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said it is not just the number of hurricanes "that matter, it is also the intensity, duration and size, and this study falls short on these issues."
Knutson acknowledges weaknesses in his computer model and said it primarily gives a coarse overview, not an accurate picture on individual storms and storm strength. He said the latest model doesn't produce storms surpassing 112 mph.
But NOAA hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea, who wasn't part of this study, praised Knutson's work as "very consistent with what's being said all along."
"I think global warming is a big concern, but when it comes to hurricanes the evidence for changes is pretty darn tiny," Landsea said.
Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic and a Colorado State University forecast predicts about a 50 percent more active than normal storm season this year. NOAA puts out its own seasonal forecast on May 22.
In a normal year about 10 named storms form. Six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes. On average, about five hurricanes hit the United States every three years
kman, you are hitting on all cylinders tonight! Fine job!
night all under the wether but geting better day by day
Thanks and no we can't ban SJ - I love him. Nash too. Storm W and everyone...no one is banned unless they say "it's written in stone or you need to leave the bar right now..."
Have a good sleep, Vort!
That said, this is what you are looking for. It was designed for when you are away from your pc and it makes a great navigational portal even when you are at home!
Any idea when the heat here is going to break?
I am dying of heat...
And I would never let you be banned...
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