Parkersburg tornado an EF-5; major flooding in Central America likely from 90E
The tornado that devastated Parkersburg, Iowa on Sunday has now been rated an EF-5 by the National Weather Service. An EF-5 is the strongest possible classification a tornado can receive, and is only given to those tornadoes with estimated winds over 200 mph. The winds in the Parkersburg tornado were estimated at 205 mph. At those wind speeds, total destruction of homes occurs. Even those sheltering in basements are not safe--several of the six deaths from the Parkersburg tornado were from people sheltering in basements.
The Parkersburg tornado cut a path 43 miles long and between 3/4 miles and 1.2 miles wide across Iowa, killing six people, completely destroying 350 buildings in Parkersburg, and injuring 70 people. It was only the second EF-5 tornado this decade in the U.S. The other EF-5 occurred in May 2007, when much of Greensburg, Kansas got leveled. The Parkersburg tornado was the first F5 or EF5 tornado in Iowa since the Jordan, Iowa tornado of June 13, 1976, and was the second deadliest in Iowa since official record-keeping began in 1950. Iowa's deadliest tornado hit Charles City on May 15, 1968, killing 13 while producing F5 damage.
Figure 1. EF-5 damage from the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg tornado. At EF-5 winds speeds (over 200mph), homes are completely destroyed or removed from their foundations. Image credit: Iowa Helicopter. The NWS Des Moines office has posted ground damage photos from their damage survey.
Major flooding likely in Central America from 90E
An area of low pressure (90E) in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Costa Rica, near 10N 88W, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is currently assigning a "High" probability (>50% chance) that this will be a tropical depression, in its new experimental Tropical Weather Outlook. Satellite loops show that the low has developed a very large and expanding circulation. This circulation is likely to expand across Central America into the Western Caribbean, allowing the storm to tap moisture from the Atlantic and Pacific. Storms that are able to tap the moisture sources of both oceans can be extremely dangerous rainmakers, even if they are weak tropical depressions. Already, 90E is generating very heavy rains in excess of six inches per day near its center. The storm is expected to move northeastward over Costa Rica or Nicaragua by Thursday or Friday, and should being dangerous flooding rains of 5-10 inches to those nations and Panama. Most of the computer model guidance suggests that the storm will then track to the north, spreading very heavy rains across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Belize, and southern Mexico by Saturday. These heavy rains will cause life-threatening flash flooding, particularly in mountainous regions.
Since 90E is beginning to dominate the circulation pattern of the region, it appears unlikely that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean in the coming week, as some computer models have been predicting. It is possible that 90E could cross Central America and pop out in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula, or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. However, the crossing of Central America will severely disrupt the storm, and the odds of 90E becoming a depression in the Atlantic basin are low.
Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 12Z (8am EDT) Wednesday May 28, 2008. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2000mm (eight inches, yellow colors) occurred near the center of disturbance 90E off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Image credit: U.S. Navy Monterey.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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now it is looking pinhole.. this is the non zoom image of Nakri.
Typhoon 2000 has the eye at about 11 NM in diameter. (10 NM or less is pinhole, if I remember correctly)
CATEGORY 4 on Saffir-Simpson Scale (125 knots)
but that (wave, convection, low, disturbance) what ever it is that its exiting Africa looks nice
now to sleep =)
until tomorrow
ZzZzZzZzZzZzZz...
look at this
OMG lol I hope this dissipates soon, this is the first area of thunderstorms to actually hold together after hitting water =O
16.2ºN 135.8ºE - 105 knots 930 hPa
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
=================================
SUBJECT: CATEGORY FIVE TYPHOON IN SEAS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
At 6:00am UTC, Super Typhoon Nakri (T0805) [930 hPa] located near 16.2N 135.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts up to 150 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest slowly.
Storm-Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center
Gale-Force Winds
======================
150 NM southeast from the center
120 NM northwest from the center
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 18.0N 134.7E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 20.7N 134.6E - 120 knots (CAT 5) <-- OMG!! (in the last two year I've never seen that)
72 HRS: 24.0N 136.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5)
---
wonder if that means the JTWC will have it up to 160-165 knots
Even on a feeble system...
Night y'all :~)
since 105 knots = 120 knots (1 min avg)
...Special feature...
Tropical Depression One is centered at 10.2n 86.5w at 0300 UTC and is moving slowly N at 3 kt. The minimum central pressure is estimated at 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt mainly in a convective band over the E semicircle. However a large tstm cluster has recently developed near the center over the NW quadrant and another impressive band is developing about 90 nm W of the center within lightning data indicating numerous strikes. Maximum seas are 11 ft. Current guidance suggests the depression will drift on a N track which could move it onshore as soon as 24 hours or as much as 36 hours as the track parallels the Nicaraguan pac coast which is orientated NW to se. The official forecast is for gradual strengthening to a minimal tropical storm prior to landfall in 24 hours. Thereafter...an upper cyclone well to the W near 14n94w is shifting SW with time while a tropical ridge builds W across the central Caribbean. So any remnants of this low is likely to track NW for a couple of days across Central America. Regardless of the wind strength this system will be a major rain maker.
TD1E is looking impressive this morning considering it proximity to land as it slowly parallels the Nicaraguan coast. The system is looking more sheared than yesterday, as it looks to me like the supporting ULH is shunted off more to the east, while the mid/low level storm has persevered against the shear and finally felt the effect of lower-level steering that pulled it more NW-NNW.
For my own part I was simply hoping for a good slug of moisture to come up towards the SE US/FL. With the storm consolidating and moving NW it looks like it will be taking a good part of the moisture away with it.
The system has lost a lot of its organization over night.
MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FCST.
Satellite imagery shows TD 1-E very well organized and I would say its a TS now.
I would not be surprised. Even though it is sheared compared to yesterday, the circulation has obviously consolidated and it looks to be still far enough offshore, maybe trending even slightly more left.
Link
Ike I posted this before I looked at that 6zgfs model.
crossed Nicaragua and became hurricane Douglass Caesar retired and Douglass became a Cat 4
If TD1 makes it into the Atlantic Basin at all it would be in the NW Caribbean east of Belize. The upper atmosphere is extremely hostile in the GOM. The Bermuda High which is starting to appear would draw it northward maybe somewhat east of northward. It probably will cause increased chances for rainfall for FL this weekend
Ike I posted this before I looked at that 6zgfs model.
You're right on with the GFS! lol.
Interesting model run.
"Then as we move into the middle and latter part of the week ensemble
data suggest upper level ridge begins to weaken across the area with
the result being moisture increasing from the south. Operational
GFS develops a low pressure system across the western Caribbean
later next week off whatever is left behind from the current
system affecting Central America. The European model is slower and
quite does not develop this feature. It just keeps a weak system
down across the Yucatan region. The GFS ensemble mean develops
the system but is also weaker. None of them develop the system for
the time period covered by this forecast (through wednesday). So
yes we could be dealing with some kind of low pressure system
affecting the local area late next week but the uncertainty is two
large at this time to be any more definitive about this. For
now...will only reflect a slight increase in rain chances for the
latter part of the extended period."
um i was just curious... if a tropical depression such as TD1 were to form in the eastern pacific and then somehow mannaged to survive a central america crossing without dissipating and then strengthened to storm status in the atlantic would it recieve an atlantic name or pacific?(same question for an atlantic to pacific system)
Action: | Ignore User
they changed the rules this year and it will still remain with the Pacific Ocean Name or the original Basin name
When I see "for now" in the forecast I suspect those writing it expect it to change.
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