OrangeRoses's WunderBlog

Th 102810

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 8:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

A Freeze Warning is in effect in the middle of the night from 3 am to 9 am CDT
Friday 10/29. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the lower 30s.

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Sun 102410

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 12:42 PM GMT on October 24, 2010

Saturday was mostly cloudy & cooler. There was some thunder at mid afternoon but only 2 tenths of an inch of rain until sunset. Then, from 6 - 8:30 PM 8 tenths of an inch fell along with some strange sounding thunder and several power outages.

Local TV showed a tornado watch for NorthEast Texas during this time(before my power went out) and the direction these thunderstorms moved was to the NorthEast.

Speaking of tornadoes, we now have a Tornado Watch until 10 PM Sunday 10/24/10 — tonight! The earlier posts above were entered 7 hours ago.

Monday 10/25 Update

We have a Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM until 7 PM today.

There may have been at least one tornado SouthEast of my area during the long ordeal but no reports yet until someone investigates damages resulting. It rained 2 tenths of an inch starting at sunset — 6:30 in the evening yesterday. This was heralded by a 40 mph wind gust, no thunder, and an 8 degree temperature spike that ended 15 minutes later with temps back to their normal diurnal drop while it rained lightly — 0.17 inches in 30 minutes.

This Severe Weather Alerts map is clickable for more information in a new tab or window.

Updated: 4:03 PM GMT on October 25, 2010

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M 101810

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 8:08 PM GMT on October 18, 2010

Over the past 7 days from 10/11 to 10/18 temps have been warmer than normal, with afternoon highs in the 80's.

We may have some rain tomorrow afternoon, although only a 50% chance is predicted — which also means a 50% chance it won't. Some cold front will move through our area from the North and the greatest probability for rain will be after it passes, plus there was some discussion about afternoon heating causing storms, which happened less than half the time all summer. So this has to be updated and then I will make my own forecast if the "maybe it will, maybe it won't" 50% scientific prediction is still in effect tomorrow.

Oct. 19, 2010 Update

No rain is falling in this area of SE Oklahoma. Radar shows heavier rain in the OKC Area moving ESE and another band of showers further south of them also moving ESE toward Hot Springs and Little Rock, Arkansas. NWS predicted just scant few hundredths of an inch would fall by 10 AM. It is 8:50 AM now. As for the remainder of the day, my forecast is No Chance of Rain today for extreme SE McCurtain County, which includes Idabel, Shults and small populated areas along the Red River, also in this county.

I do not see any approaching cold front at this time as the NWS stated in 8:33 AM Short Term Forecast "more substantial rains will be developing later this morning ahead of an approaching cold front."

The frontal map below shows the only cold front position at 8:48 AM 10/19 crossing the Red River border into Texas. This image may change later. Must be the short term forecast mentioned above refers to areas South of the Front.

I went outside around 9:30AM and felt very light scant rain along with the wind gusting from the East blowing some yellow leaves off a tall tree. Mesonet.org recorded 0.02 inches of rain total ending at that time, so the forecast above is only slightly wrong.

And another time my morning forecast was wrong and NWS right happens now at 3:13 PM with ~~an approaching hail storm.~~

This is the data on the sole storm:
Hail Storm
McCurtain County, OK
Max Reflectivity: 55 dBZ
Severe Hail: 10% Chance
Hail: 80% Chance
Max Hail Size: 0.50 in.
Echo Top: 26,000 ft.
Vert. Integrated Liquid: 34 kg/m²
Speed: 19 knots
Direction (from): WNW (286)
Radar Site: SHV
ID: J4

I saw the clouds, heard the thunder, and waited. The hail storm never arrived. In fact, within 30 minutes the sun came out. Then, around 4:38 PM, another storm approached from the east, grey high clouds with rumbling thunder but it also faded away!

So, I was partially right in my morning forecast but it did rain, although the amount evaporated after it rained a total of one tenth of an inch yesterday.

Updated: 12:58 PM GMT on October 20, 2010

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M 101110

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 4:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2010

Several thunderstorms shed 0.6 inches of rain over 3 hours before dawn today. It had been 15 days since there was any significant rain; only 2 hundredths of an inch fell in the 5 remaining days of September.

Right now, at 11:30 AM, the temperature is 63 °F | 17 °C and Relative Humidity 88% yet it is bearable — in contrast to the Very Hot 100°+ Heat Index days with 50% humidity in July and August.

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W 100610

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 3:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2010

It has cooled off, finally, but with this change comes the risk of Fire Hazards.

The Mesonet.org link below shows 4 inch soil temperatures in addition to the temperature, humidity, air pressure, rainfall, and wind data.

October Monthly Summary Table

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F 100110

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 11:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010

Have a nice October!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
314 am CDT Friday Oct 1 2010

Another reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is expected to move
into the region by Saturday night. This will bring even cooler and
drier conditions for the end of the weekend and into early next
week. Highs will struggle to get out of the 70s during this time
period and lows should stay in the 40s. Northerly low level and
upper level flow will keep conditions dry as well.

By the end of next week...the surface high is expected to become
more centered over the four state region. This will bring a slight
warmup over the region...allowing the area to see temperatures reach
the lower 80s again. It will also give a few more days of dry
conditions. Overall the forecast will remain dry through the entire
period