New Orleans Weather Blog

Last Updated: 6:20 AM GMT on January 16, 2010 — Last Comment: 3:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2009

	IS 94L A BIG THREAT?

Posted by: SevereHurricane, 5:47 PM GMT on July 27, 2009

Current Activity

Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.
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My Tropical Activity Analysis:

94L

94l is looking healthier this morning with a semi-concentrated area of convection with evidence of some Upper Level Outflow occurring on the western side of the system and if this organization trend continues 94L could become the 6th Tropical Depression of the 2009 hurricane Season sometime tonight or tomorrow morning and eventually become Erika. Looking at High-Resolution Visible satellite imagery the center of 94L is located near 11.5N 47.5W and is moving to the West-Northwest at around 15mph. This motion should continue for the next 48-72 Hours and 94L could have an impact on the Northern Leeward Islands in a few days as a Tropical Storm, however, I am leaning towards 94L passing just north of the Islands in a similar fashion to the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET. Beyond that is rather problematic and there are 2 scenario's that could occur. If 94L maintains its motion or speed up and becomes strong quick as some of the models are indicating the trough over the Central Atlantic would likely pick it up and bring it out to sea passing to the North-East of the Leeward Islands with an eventual impact on Bermuda not out of the question OR if 94 slows down and stays somewhat weaker until it passes close to the northern Leeward Islands there is risk that the trough could miss the Cyclone and ride under the ridge and move to the west towards the southern Bahamas. Beyond that, well, we will cross that bridge when we get there.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful day,

SevereHurricane
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:

10-12 Named Storms
3-5 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

"It only take's one..."

*This forecast is subject to change.
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So Far This Year:
Named Storms:4
Hurricanes:1
Major Hurricanes:1
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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names:
Ana-
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

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National Hurricane Center Daily Product's

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook---------------> HERE

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion--------------->HERE

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Atlantic Basin Hurricane Maps/Data:

MORE SATELLITE IMAGES
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Numerical and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models

Numerical Models
GFS MODEL
NAM MODEL
GEFS MODEL
WW3 MODEL
NGM MODEL

Tropical Models

GFDL MODEL
HWRF MODEL
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Web Cam/Current Condition's

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1. originalLT 5:18 AM GMT on July 30, 2009

Again nice looking blog, just not much action to comment on...YET! Let's see about Aug.

2. SevereHurricane 5:26 PM GMT on July 30, 2009

Quoting originalLT:
Again nice looking blog, just not much action to comment on...YET! Let's see about Aug.

Yea, We need to see what August brings; Hopefully more activity.

3. wxgeek723 10:04 PM GMT on July 30, 2009

Informative entry. Well it would be if something was really out there. I'm sure that tropical wave will just basically die by tomorrow, like every other wave has since like early June. I suppose it's a good thing we haven't seen a storm yet; that increases the chance for a less active year. But I always hope for at least one little July storm. Maybe it's just a birthday thing. You probably understand anyway.

Not that it really matters. Bad storms can happen in slow seasons. Just look at 1992.

4. SevereHurricane 11:33 PM GMT on July 30, 2009

Quoting wxgeek723:
Informative entry. Well it would be if something was really out there. I'm sure that tropical wave will just basically die by tomorrow, like every other wave has since like early June. I suppose it's a good thing we haven't seen a storm yet; that increases the chance for a less active year. But I always hope for at least one little July storm. Maybe it's just a birthday thing. You probably understand anyway.

Not that it really matters. Bad storms can happen in slow seasons. Just look at 1992.

I agree.

Lol.. Dry air will likely kill the wave before the axis reaches -40W. But you never know.

5. wxgeek723 1:49 AM GMT on August 01, 2009

Hey SH. We got hit really hard up here today. Rain falling down horizontally, frequent lightning and thunder, flooded streets, the power was fluctuating. It was great.

Can't believe tomorrow is Aug. 1. Wouldn't be a big deal only it's a precursor to returning to school. I know down there you go back in the middle of August, but I have until early September. But I always get secretly excited weather wise because tropical activity picks up.

6. SevereHurricane 6:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2009

Yea I love it when a Strong Thunderstorm rolls on through.

7. originalLT 5:00 AM GMT on August 15, 2009

Time for a new post from you, to get your opinion. TD2 is back!, but there is alot of dry air ahead of it. Do you think that will kill it or hinder it severly?

8. originalLT 2:35 AM GMT on August 21, 2009

Severe, you've got to post, Bill is out there and he is a MAJOR ! . Whats your take?

9. tkeith 2:58 AM GMT on August 21, 2009

Quoting originalLT:
Severe, you've got to post, Bill is out there and he is a MAJOR ! . Whats your take?
Severe is probably playin football...

Something gets near the Gulf we'll here from him...lol

10. SevereHurricane 5:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

Quoting tkeith:
Severe is probably playin football...

Something gets near the Gulf we'll here from him...lol

How did you know? lol

Yea... When something threatens the Gulf I will update the blog more frequently.

11. SevereHurricane 5:51 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

I'll post an update anyway...

12. wxgeek723 2:07 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

I think 92L may take a track that is similar to Cristobal last year...

13. SevereHurricane 5:07 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

Quoting wxgeek723:
I think 92L may take a track that is similar to Cristobal last year...

I agree. 92L will likely track close to North Carloinas Coast.

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