Michigan MCS moving east
A severe MCS has developed in the midwest earlier today, in Iowa to be more precise. It is now plowing through southern Michigan with intense 80mph wind gusts and even a brief weak tornado was reported in Kalamazoo county, Michigan. The SPC has issued a moderate risk of severe weather due to the nature of the MCS in extreme southeastern Michigan.
Here's what it looked like on Radar as it plowed through the southern half of Michigan.
Here's an Infrared Satellite shot from 21:15 UTC...
Storm Reports from the SPC.
This is what the SPC thinks into tonight for the area:
...NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NY/VT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REGION INTO
WESTERN ME. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THE SEVERE MCS OVER IL WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
MOVE INTO NY TONIGHT.
The slight risk has consiquently been extended all the way into portions of Maine.
It is now making it's way into Ontario and has prompted Environment Canada to issue a few severe thunderstorm warnings.
A large complex of severe thunderstorms approaching rapidly from the west at 90 km/h will move into regions near the Michigan border after 6 PM this evening. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 100 km/h, large hail and local rainfall amounts of 50 mm in one hour or less. Funnel clouds and a possible tornado have been reported with these storms in Michigan, hence there is a risk of brief tornadoes with some of these storms.
Monitor weather conditions and take immediate safety precautions if threatening weather approaches.
A large complex of severe thunderstorms will affect the regions this evening. The main threat from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 100 km/h, large hail and local rainfall amounts of 50 mm in one hour or less. Isolated tornadoes are also possible early this evening.
In other news, Wednesday evening is looking quite interesting around where I live. The SPC issued a Day 5 risk yesterday (now day 4) so they too think there is going to be a decent severe weather night.
I cannot hide that I am quite excited and I hope it doesn't all develop to my east! For the past few days I've seen good storms in Vermont, New York and even just to my east in the Appalachians of Quebec.
I've had a good one around 3h30 am this morning... it woke me up fortunately. The rain was intense with loud thunder. (at least, for my region's standards) My weather station registered an hourly rain rate of 97.2mm (or almost 4 inches)! IT was brief... lasting only 15mins but 12mm(half an inch) fell in 13 mins. The wind only went from calm to 25km/h gusts however so I don't even think it could be considered a strong thunderstorm.
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 3:10 AM GMT on May 30, 2011
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Rain in the forecast, again!
My Webcam
Let's go back to May 6th. The Richelieu river was just reaching it's highest level ever since measurements began in 1867, about a metre (3.3 feet) over the record, after 50 to as much as 100mm fell over the past few days. This combined with melting of the excessive amounts of snow in the mountains of New York and Vermont this winter resulted in never-before-seen flooding.
Then they had a break. Nearly a week of tranquil and beautiful weather allowed the river to recede by about a foot or 30cm. Residents were optimistic.
That was just wishful thinking however because rain was in the forecast again and lots of it. Rains on the order of 50 to 75mm were forecast for the entire area. Several days of persistent thundershowers in the Lake Champlain drainage area caused by a cut-off upper-level low created even greater amounts. The river rose again by about 10-15cm.
A couple of days later fierce southerly winds gusting to 90km/h caused waves of 3 feet over the lake and a foot over the Richelieu river. Since the water flows north, water levels rose temporarily an additional 20 to 25cm. 2 weeks after an historic peak, the record was beaten once again.
May 25th and water levels are back to "normal"; around the old all-time record high. Since mid-April the river has been overflowing and no end is in sight for at least another 2 weeks. In a week levels should start to recede and this time it may continue until below flood stage.
The forecast:
More rain. 50 to locally 100mm or 2 to 4 inches is forecast from Thursday into Monday for the whole St-Lawrence river valley and southward to the northern U.S. Appalachian mountains which will further increase the water levels in both Lake Champlain and the Richelieu river. However, after this event, good news is on the horizon...
Special weather statement from Environment Canada about this latest rain event.
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada Montréal at
05:06 AM EDT Wednesday 25 May 2011.
....More rain beginning Thursday....
We are currently monitoring a low pressure system approaching from
the midwest and tracking toward Southern Quebec. Rain and southerly
winds will develop on Thursday. They will affect the Montérégie,
which is already vulnerable to bad weather. Winds will then weaken.
However, a series of low pressure systems will follow, giving
significant rainfall amounts. Conditions will improve starting early
next week.
Following this, no other Major low pressure system is expected to
affect Southern Quebec before June 7 th. Temperatures should be more
seasonal with isolated precipitation.
This bulletin is only an advisory notice and the public is advised to
follow present and future warnings issued by Environment Canada.
8:00pm EDT UPDATE
A rainfall warning has been issued. This is only for thursday as more waves of moisture are to arrive in the next couple of days the amounts will definetely be higher.
269.7mm (10.62 inches) have fallen so far since April 1st and that number could well reach 350mm (13.78 inches) by the end of the month. 350mm is 250% of normal.
Average April rainfall: 63.9mm (2.52 inches)
Average May rainfall: 76.1mm (3 inches)
Total: 140mm
Rainfall warning for
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe issued
Close to 50 millimetres of rain is expected over these regions Thursday.
A warm front associated with a low pressure system from the American Midwest will bring a humid and unstable airmass over southern and Central Quebec Thursday. The front will stretch along the St Lawrence river Thursday and will move very slowly eastward later on. The heavy rain and thunderstorms generated by this system will begin in the morning and will continue overnight.
Figure shows the water level of Lake Champlain since April 23rd and as you can see, they have been above flood stage ever since and above the all-time record high since April 28th.
Severe thunderstorms:
I'm following the situation in the states and it's looking pretty bad on radar with a bunch of supercells with tornado warnings. Hopefully, the tornadoes stay away from major towns or cities...
Up here, only southwestern Ontario is affected. A severe thunderstorm watch is in affect for these areas. Main threats are generally localized flash flooding and strong wind gusts. The SPC has a 45% chance of wind over 60mph in thunderstorms for extreme southwestern Ontario and it looks like a few cells in the area are capable of doing just that. I wouldn't be surprised if a few areas picked up a quick 75mm or 3 inches of rain from this cluster of thunderstorms. Nowhere near as bad as in the Mississippi valley though.
Stay safe out there if you're in the areas at risk!
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Updated: 12:16 AM GMT on May 26, 2011
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Fires and Flooding
My Webcam
Alberta Fires
Image courtesy of CBC News Canada
More than 115 forest fires are burning in northern Alberta and 36 of those are out of control.
As you may or may not know, the community of Slave Lake, Alberta has been devastated by a forest fire in just a few days. On May 16th as much as 40% of the town was destroyed or damaged including the town hall and other government buildings. On May 17th the mayor, Karina Pillay-Kinnee, indicated that one-third of the town was destroyed and 374 properties are completely ruined.
More than 7000 people (the entire town) have been forced from their homes Sunday.
1 400 firefighters are on the ground in Alberta.
100 000 hectares have burned so far and that's more than all of last year.
Flooding in Manitoba
I've focused my attention on the flooding situation in Quebec but haven't really thought about Manitoba's problems and how severe the flooding is over there as well... In fact, it's historic.
A few numbers from CBC...
Current flood figures
3,360 — Manitobans evacuated from their homes, including 1,391 in Brandon.
1,236 — Evacuees who have been able to return to their homes in the Red River Valley.
1,600 — Canadian Forces personnel helping with flood fight.
3.42 — The area in square kilometres affected by the controlled release at the Hoop and Holler dike.
This is what it looked like when they intentionally breached the Hoop and Holler dike to save a greater amount of land from flooding.
Richelieu Valley Flooding
Recent heavy rains (I received 62.1mm (2.44 inches) in 3 days from Saturday through Tuesday morning) have caused the river to rise slowly again by about 5cm or 2 inches during the last 3 days. It might not be much but the river was over 1 metre (3.3 feet) over flood stage in early May and it had only dropped by about 1 foot or 30cm since then before it started rising again.
I received 62.1mm (2.44")
Nearby Montreal has officially received 58.2mm
Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu has received 248.7mm(9.79") since April 1st after receiving 55mm (about 2") from the latest storm system.
231mm have fallen in Montreal since April 1st which is 165% of normal
A lot of homes are still flooded and the flooding has been going on for about a month now.
If you have not seen the pictures I took in communities close to the Richelieu River you can see them here.
...............................................
In other news, I'm going to Mount Mansfield, Vermont for 2 days and one night (possibly 2 if the weather cooperates) this long weekend. Leaving Saturday morning... hoping the showers that are forecast on Saturday are not too heavy! Also hoping that the not so perfect weather discourages the average hiker because it is quite a hiker's hotspot around here.
Will blog about that when I get back. Have a great weekend everyone!
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Much more rain coming!
My Webcam
Everyone has enjoyed the last couple of days of perfect weather here in New York, Vermont and southern Quebec. Areas which have been severely affected by flooding from Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River have thankfully breathed a sigh of relief as water levels are slowly receding. This is where the good news ends. Areas which have seen over 200% of normal rainfall since April 1st (with locations topping 300%) are in for a week of rainy weather all thanks to an upper-level low and an associated front which will stall over the area.
Just what we need!
Figure 1 shows just how much rain the GFS model thinks will fall up until late Wednesday night of next week (May the 18th) An extensive area of 3 inches + with up to 6 or 7 inches right over Lake Champlain is shown.
Notice how the GFS favours the worst possible area at the moment... Some areas might receive over 15 inches of rains when all is set and done since April 1st including Burlington, Vermont which has already received 9 inches and if this model is correct, is in line to receive 5 more inches. Details are not quite yet 100% certain about how much rain will fall but this certainly raises a few eyebrows, including mine.
The question is, will this have significant impacts and cause the river to rise again? My thinking is that it will probably not rise yet again but start to recede very slowly or even stall as the rain keeps pouring down. It will unfortunately at the very least, delay clean-up operations for at least a week and now it's probably looking like most people living along the river will have to deal with this until June.. Not what they want to hear.
I have made major improvements to my weather station:
Now (May 9th)
April 29th
April 15th
You can see how much it has changed and improved over time. My thermometer is now at least 5 feet from any heat source which is the norm and my wind vane is approximately 25 feet in the air and now displaying an accurate wind speed and direction. This is the last time I make major improvements and now I'm actually going to start to collect reliable data probably June 1st. (I like to start off a the beginning of a month because it collects monthly data) I got my new and functional thermo-hygrometer and I'm all set.
And now for something completely different....
A few pictures of Tulips in my front yard should lighten spirits a little on the incoming bad news!
Have a great day everyone.
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Updated: 3:47 PM GMT on May 11, 2011
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Unprecedented Richelieu Valley Flooding
My Webcam
Evening Update
I've taken over 50 pictures of the flooding and I have posted around 40 of them on this site.
A picture says a thousand words that's for sure... and witnessing this flooding first hand proved to be much more interesting than hearing about it obviously.
You can find more pictures here.
A few sample are located at the bottom of this blog.
Have a good evening all!
Saturday Noon Update on the flooding
As you can see, water levels were starting to recede by the beginning of the month of May but mother nature had other plans.
At 11:00AM EDT the water levels on Lake Champlain were measured at 103.15 which is a full 1.05 feet above the all-time record high!
USGS states:
The highest recorded level at the gage in Burlington was 101.86 feet above mean sea level on April 27, 1993. An historical maximum lake level of 102.1 feet above mean sea level was measured on May 4, 1869 at Rousses Point, New York. The mark left by the rising water was measured on a railroad bridge.
Flood stage is 100 feet.
In Quebec, over 3000 homes (up from 2400) have now been flooded and 18 municipalities (up from 15) have been affected by the floods. Houses that have never been flooded before are at the mercy of the rising water levels.
Original Post
Hello everyone, first of all, I am still waiting on my new thermometer to arrive by mail. The one I have has pretty much failed completely now and I still need to make my weather station provide more accurate information. I will provide pictures once that is done.
Onto the Richelieu Valley and Lake Champlain flooding in extreme southern Quebec...
Photos: Bernard Brault, La Presse
You can find a short video here with a bird's-eye view of the flooding.
This is unprecedented flooding way above record stage. Heavy amounts of rains in the spring and heavy mountain snows in the mountains of New York and the Appalachians of Quebec and Vermont have contributed largely to the worst-ever flooding for this area. Flooding is also happening in the States all around Lake Champlain.
Saint-Jean sur Richelieu, a town on the shores of the Richelieu Valley is also affected by this historic flooding. 15 municipalities in total have been affected.
May 4th, 2011 levels:
0,98 metres above flood stage for the Richelieu River and rising (old record is 0,66 M)
1,219 metres above flood stage for Lake Champlain and still rising(old record set way back in May 1869 was 1,069 M)
Water levels are expected to crest this weekend but flooding is expected to linger for several weeks.
2400 Homes have been flooded, more than 400 people have been evacuated. 6 Red Cross centres are currently open and offering help.
The Canadian Forces have been called in to help by the premier of Quebec, Jean Charest. It is the first time that the army has been called to help with a natural disaster in Quebec since the 1998 Super Ice storm.
Here are rainfall totals for Quebec during the past few days. A persistent and annoying low pressure was just hanging around and bringing all kinds of rain. Not really what the people in the Richelieu Valley are hoping for. Saint-Jean sur Richelieu has received just over 160mm since April 1st which is 6.3 inches. Burlington, Vermont has received over 9 inches.
This is considered to be the worst disaster since the Sagnenay Floods of 1996 and although this area sees flooding almost every spring, it is usually no where near as bad as it is now...
Funny how something quite close to home (about 30km to the southeast of where I live) makes you think about the situation a lot more.
Snow cover in the area... (quite high for May standards)
Provided by NOAA and Google Earth.
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The weather is always interesting. - Jesse Ferrell
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Updated: 2:11 AM GMT on May 08, 2011
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