Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center

Last Updated: 8:48 PM GMT on November 24, 2009 — Last Comment: 2:35 AM GMT on November 25, 2009

	TROPICAL STORM IDA SPECIAL "QUICKCAST" NOVEMBER 07, 2009 ISSUED 10:00 P.M.

Posted by: StormW, 2:59 AM GMT on November 08, 2009

Good evening,
IDA still appears to be holding her own.

NHC 10:00 P.M. ADVISORY

10:00 PM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 20.1°N 84.6°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb

Recent satellite loop imagery shows her elongated somewhat in a basic W-E fashion. IDA is undergoing some effects of wind shear from the SW at about 25 kts. This is most likely keeping her in check at the moment, albeit the diffluent flow aloft is aiding somewhat in ventialtion. I believe if we are going to see any further strengthening, it will be within the next 12 hours, as she has made it to the point of where the greatest TCHP is located.

IDA FLOATER LOOP

Based on the most recent wind shear tendency map from CIMSS, Wind Shear has supposeldy been on the decrease. I must say though, the CMC wind shear forecast map has handled the shear better thus far.

Given the wind shear forecast maps (blend), the upper level environment MAY become slightly more conducive, and IDA could increase in strength slightly, or maintain her current strength through the next 24-36 hours.

Based on the current 10:00 p.m. update, and in line with my thinking, she may become a CAT1 for a brief time.

I basically concur with the NHC forecast track, albeit I still feel the track will be mor left for a very short time, before making the turn to the north.

Here is going to be the key to where she comes ashore:

A FASTER SYSTEM as shown on NHC track, then landfall will most likely occur close to NHC official track.

A SLOWER SYSTEM...then based on the current forecast steering layers maps, I would expect a sharper turn toward the NE-ENE, having more of an affect closer to the Big Bend to Tampa area.

IRT the HYBRID in the BOC...While the possibility of the two systems merging does exist, looking at my current analysis of various parameters, I feel the HYBRID has a better chance right now of being steered ahead of IDA.

I will be out all day tomorrow, but will try to update late tomorrow evening.

I STILL RECOMMEND RESIDENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MS to Tampa,FL. closely monitor the progress of IDA.

"Storm"

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1. TampaSpin 3:06 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
Nice update StormW!

2. ajcamsmom2 3:06 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
Thanks Storm

3. PcolaDan 3:08 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
Thanks for the analysis, although I don't like you now. :) Good thing my insurance ends end of the month and not beginning. Have a good Sunday.

4. taco2me61 3:09 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
ok thanks again storm and have a great day tomorrow.... Taco :0)

5. MsBlanch 3:16 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
Appreciate the evening update Storm. Will be checking in tomorrow.

6. traumaboyy 6:39 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
Thanks for the update Storm!

7. Yalahaman 2:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Went to bed Ida was a trop storm, get up and now it's on the verge of cat. 2 ! Wow! Thanks Storm! I will be watching this very closely! Everyone have a great day!

8. OGal 3:05 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Thanks for explaining the different landfall locations due to speed of the system. It makes a big difference to us here in central Florida.

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