Invest 93E to struggle with wind shear
After consolidating fairly quickly yesterday afternoon, Invest 93E has done a complete 180 and looks less impressive this evening. Visible satellite loops reveal that the disturbance is being sheared due to a displaced anticyclone to its east. Satellite loops also reveal that the center of circulation lies on the southeast side of the disturbance's convective ball (if you can call it that). An earlier ASCAT pass revealed a nearly closed circulation with 30-35 knot winds though, so it is likely that 93E will still attain tropical storm, and possibly even hurricane, status over the next few days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center gave 93E a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours; I believe these chances are a little higher...near 80%.
Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite imagery of Invest 93E.
The forecast for 93E
There have been a few changes to the predicted intensity of Invest 93E. An objective analysis from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) reveals that 93E is experiencing stronger wind shear than originally predicted--near 20 knots. Despite the fact that the invest is situated within a moist environment and atop Sea Surface Temperatures of 28-29 °C, the latest SHIPS model forecast reveals that high wind shear will continue to impede on 93E's development. In fact, the model forecasts that wind shear could reach 30 knots by Tuesday; this would act to significantly affect the system's chances for additional strengthening during that time. Thankfully for the system, wind shear is forecast to lower after 48 hours out as the anticyclone to its east moves in conjunction with the invest while expanding. Models have backed off significantly with the forecast peak intensity of the storm, with only the reliable LGEM and less reliable SHIPS model showing 93E attaining hurricane status. For this reason, the peak intensity forecast has been significantly lowered, and shows a peak near minimal hurricane intensity.
The track forecast remains straightforward. The invest is being steered northwest due to a weak ridge in general. This ridge of high pressure is forecast to strengthen by 48 hours out, forcing the disturbance to turn westward and eventually southwestward. It is not expected to affect any land areas.
INIT 11/0300Z 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 11/1500Z 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 12/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0300Z 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH