WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US?
Hey everyone,
This particular blog entry is an updated version of a similar blog I had posted last May. The main purpose of this blog entry (and others like it) is my desire to hopefully help others gain a greater understanding of Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasting and the many atmospheric parameters that influence them.
The climatilogical data contained herein should be most beneficial to anyone interested in speculating about just how active the 2012 North Atlantic basin hurricane season might be. In compiling all of the following data, I have chosen to simply focus on the period from 1950-2011 (62 years). In doing so, I have listed and categorized the following data in respect to the most influential climate factor that affects seasonal activity (the AMO cycle) and in the chronological order that is most relevant to the upcoming season (i.e. the two active phases of the AMO). Moreover, I have also categorized them according to the corresponding phase of the ENSO cycle (the other most influential climate factor) for those seasons as well. I used the official CPC historical record to accurately categorize the aforementioned.
The ENSO cycle has three phases that can manifest itself during the hurricane season. They are the hurricane friendly La Nina, the Hurricane inhibiting El Nino, and the Neutral phase (which is basically reflective of normal influence from this climate component). In each category listed for both the AMO cycles as well as the ENSO cycles, the data is listed by individual hurricane seasons from left to right. The first set of numbers is for total storms (i.e. tropical and subtropical storms). The second number listed (separated by hyphens) is the number of hurricanes that developed during a particular season. The third number listed shows the number of Major hurricanes (category three or greater) that formed during an individual season as well. To reiterate, my goal in creating this blog is in the hope that I can share this extensive and very time consuming research, so that everyone can use the information listed herein, to better project their own forecasts for the upcoming hurricane season. Most importantly, I want to thank each and everyone of you who have taken the time to read and/or post in my blogs. Likewise, I want to also wish each and every one of you a great rest of the week!:)
Most sincerely,
Tony
La Nina events affecting Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons (1950-2011):
1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1985, 1988, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2011. (19 total).
El Nino Events (1950-2011):
1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009. (18 total).
CURRENT ACTIVE PHASE OF THE AMO (1995-2011)
El NINO
1997 8/3/1 2002 12/4/2 2004 15/9/6 2006 10/5/2 2009 9/3/2
Totals 54/24/13 (5 years) Averages 10.8/4.8/2.6
LA NINA
1995 19/11/5 1998 14/10/3 1999 12/8/5 2007 15/6/2 2010 19/12/5 2011 19/7/4
Totals 98/54/24 (6 years) Averages 16.3/9/4
NEUTRAL
1996 13/9/6 2000 15/8/3 2001 15/9/3
2003 16/7/3 2005 28/15/7 2008 16/8/5
Totals 103/56/27 (6 years) Averages 17.2/9.3/4.5
PREVIOUS ACTIVE AMO (1950-1969)
EL NINO
1951 10/8/5 1957 8/3/2 1963 9/7/2 1965 6/4/1
1969 18/12/5
Totals 51/34/15 (5 years) Averages 10.2/6.8/3
Important note: This El Nino period got a huge boost from the hyperactive 1969 season that featured the legendary hurricane Camille which devastated the Mississippi coastline as a powerful category five.
LA NINA
1950 13/11/8 1954 11/8/3 1955 12/9/6 1956 8/4/2 1962 5/3/1 1964 12/6/6
Totals 61/42/26 (6 years) Averages 10.2/7/4.3
Important note: It is imperative that one takes into consideration the fact that the first 15 seasons of this active period (1950-1965) didn't have the capability to detect storms by a geostationary satellite. Consequently, it is highly likely that many storms went undetected and thus, unaccounted for in the historical record.
NEUTRAL
1952 7/6/3 1953 14/6/4 1958 10/7/5 1959 11/7/2
1960 7/4/2 1961 11/8/7 1966 11/7/3 1967 8/6/1 1968 8/4/0
Totals 87/55/27 (9 years) Averages 9.7/6.1/3
INACTIVE AMO (1970-1994)
El NINO
1972 7/3/0 1976 10/6/2 1977 6/5/1 1982 6/2/1
1986 6/4/0 1987 7/3/1 1991 8/4/2 1994 7/3/0
Totals 57/30/7 (8 years) Averages 7.1/3.8/0.9
LA NINA
1970 10/5/2 1971 13/6/1 1973 8/4/1 1974 11/4/2
1975 9/5/3 1985 11/7/3 1988 12/5/3
Totals 74/36/15 (7 years) Averages 10.6/5.1/2.1
NEUTRAL
1978 12/5/2 1979 9/5/2 1980 11/9/2 1981 12/7/3 1983 4/3/1
1984 13/5/1 1989 11/7/2 1990 14/8/1 1992 7/4/1 1993 8/4/1
Totals 101/57/16 (10 years) Averages 10.1/5.7/1.6
GRAND TOTALS FOR EACH CATEGORY:
El NINO
Totals 162/88/35 (18 years) Averages 9/4.9/1.9
LA NINA
Totals 233/132/65 (19 years) Averages 12.3/6.9/3.4
NEUTRAL
Totals 291/168/70 (25 years) Averages 11.6/6.7/2.8
ALL STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD (1950-2011)
Grand Totals 686/388/170 (62 years) Averages 11.1/6.3/2.7
ACTIVE AMO PHASES
454/265/132 (37 years) Averages 12.3/7.2/3.6
INACTIVE AMO PHASE
232/123/38 (25 years) Averages 9.3/4.9/1.5
CURRENT ACTIVE AMO PHASE (1995-2011)
255/134/64 (17 years) Averages 15/7.9/3.8
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Please see the comment section for additional data focused on how these major climate factors have impacted U.S. landfalls and strikes.
Page: 1 — Blog Index
1) El Nino H seasons: (5 Total)
1997 = 1 TS/1 H
2002 = 8 TS/1 H
2004 = 9 TS/6 H/3 MH (4,3,3)
2006 = 3 TS
2009 = 2 TS
Totals: 23 TS/8 H/3 MH (Averages = 4.6 TS/1.6 H/0.6 MH)
2) La Nina H seasons: (6 Total)
1995 = 5 TS/2 H/1 MH (3)
1998 = 7 TS/3 H
1999 = 5 TS/3 H/1 MH (3)
2007 = 4 TS/1 H
2010 = 4 TS
2011 = 2 TS/1 H
Totals: 27 TS/10 H/2 MH (Averages = 4.5 TS/1.7 H/0.33 MH)
3) Neutral H seasons: (6 Total)
1996 = 5 TS/2 H/1 MH (3)
2000 = 2 TS
2001 = 4 TS
2003 = 5 TS/2 H
2005 = 9 TS/6 H/4 MH (3,3,3,3)
2008 = 6 TS/3 H
Totals: 31 TS/13 H/5 MH (Averages = 5.2 TS/2.2 H/0.83 MH)
ALL STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD (1995-2011)
Totals: 81/31/10 (17 years) Averages 4.9/1.9/0.59
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