Lovely weather to continue through Thanksgiving
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.
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East Coast IR satellite image.
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Synopsis
Stunning late-autumn weather will continue right through the Thanksgiving holiday for most locales across the Northeast thanks to a sprawling high pressure ridge axis draped across eastern North America. Aside from thin high cloudiness due to the passage of a couple very weak ripples in the jet, skies will tend to be mostly sunny right through Thanksgiving with temperatures running several degrees above seasonal norms. A significant cold frontal passage will take place Black Friday which should bring the coldest weather of the season in its wake and perhaps the first significant lake effect event for the Snow Belt region over the weekend. As we head into the last week of November a strong omega ridge is forecast to develop at high latitudes over the Dateline and slowly retrograde toward eastern Siberia. This pattern should draw down a significant chunk of arctic air building over Alaska and Northwestern Canada into the Rocky Mountain region as downstream troughing digs in the western United States, spawning a strong winter storm over the Plains by midweek. Ahead of this trough broad southwesterly flow should develop across the eastern half of the country, bringing a warming trend to the Northeast region for the first half of the week. However, the second half of the week looks stormy as the Plains storm moves in.
Short-term
Mostly sunny skies and frosty lawns will greet Northeast residents this Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin the day in the 20's across much of the interior with mainly 30's along the coastal plain. The urban centers are in the low 40's, with Philadelphia checking in at 41°F for the start of the Philadelphia marathon this morning. Sunny skies will quickly warm temperatures through the morning into the early afternoon, with low to mid 50's expected for highs along the coastal plain up to southern New England, west of the Appalachians and across the Great Lakes plain and most interior valleys. At elevations higher than 1000' temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 40's. High clouds will start to spread across southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey during the afternoon as low pressure develops off the coast. Mainly clear skies, dry air, and light winds will continue through this evening across the interior allowing temperatures to plummet once again into the 20's overnight. Along the coastal plain, however, a thickening layer of high clouds will slow the temperature fall some with lows in the upper 30's to low 40's.
Not much in the way of changes for Monday with sunny skies continuing to reign across the interior and high clouds persisting along the coast to start the day. A weak disturbance will approach from the west during the afternoon spreading high cloudiness into the interior as well but temperatures will once again reach into the low to mid 50's along the coastal plain, lake plain and interior valleys with 40's at higher elevations across the interior. High clouds continue to move into the region Monday night helping to keep temperatures several degrees warmer than nights prior. Expect lows in the upper 20's to low 30's across the interior with upper 30's to low 40's along the coastal plain.
Mid-term
More in the way of cloud cover over the region on Tuesday as the weak upper trough passes trough. This will keep temperatures a bit lower than today or Monday but they will still run several degrees above normal for latter November. The weak trough will make its way off the coast Tuesday night with thinning clouds as the night progresses. Low temperatures will once again fall into the 20's across most of the interior with upper 30's to low 40's for the coastal plain.
Clouds will continue to abate on Wednesday for most locales as sunny skies return for the biggest travel day of the year. The lone exception will be along the immediate coasts of southern New England to Long Island where a piece of energy rotating around the offshore low pressure will keep skies mostly cloudy. Otherwise it will be a splendid day with temperatures approaching 60°F west of the Appalachians around Pittsburgh. Highs in the 50's will be seen along the coastal plain and much of the interior aside from central/northern New England. These highs will be about 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Thanksgiving is likely to be a carbon copy of Wednesday, though with the system offshore finally pulling away all areas should see mostly sunny skies. With the clear skies and light winds expected nighttime temperature should fall close to normal Wednesday night but remain several degrees warmer than average Thursday night as moisture increases over the region ahead of an approaching trough.
Long-term
Our run of fabulous weather will be coming to an end after Friday as a potent but moisture-starved shortwave trough moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough on Friday will pump one final push of fairly warm air into the Northeast, with highs expected to climb into the low 60's for many of the lower elevation areas outside of central/northern New England and even here temperatures should reach into the 50's. By the afternoon hours a strong cold front associated with this trough will reach the western half of the region. Though moisture is lacking, fairly strong dynamics will force a narrow line of showers along this boundary and there even cloud be a rumble of thunder along the I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Syracuse on south to north-central Pennsylvania. The core of the mid/upper disturbance will curl north into Canada, leaving little forcing for any precipitation east of the Appalachians down to the southern coastal plain. But as the front pulls offshore it will start to draw Atlantic moisture into eastern New England Friday night, bringing a steadier rainfall to eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine which should end as snow showers away from the coast behind the front. As low pressure wraps up over eastern Canada and much colder air flows into the Northeast, the cold cyclonic flow will promote the development of lake effect snows downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. Trajectory at this time appears to be between 300-310° which should favor the Syracuse region and areas to the southeast of there off Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie areas southwest of Buffalo and down the spine of the Alleghenies to the Laurel Highlands will be favored although a few streamers off Georgian Bay may make their down into the Niagara Frontier and the Buffalo region. Flow will start to turn anti-cyclonic by Sunday which should shut down the lake effect machine to close out the weekend. The coldest air of the season for the Northeast by far will arrive this weekend. Temperatures may not climb above freezing for much of the higher terrain of the Northeast and areas within the lake effect snow bands. Elsewhere across the interior high temperatures will be in the 30's with upper teens to low 20's at night. Along the coastal plain highs should make it to the low 40's with upper 20's to low 30's at night. A brisk wind Saturday and Saturday night will add an extra bite to the air and wind chills could drop into the single digits across the interior Saturday night.
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Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.
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Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.
Reader Comments
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The long range is a very complicated mess right now as the models are failing to resolve the pattern over North America downstream of a very strong block developing over the Bering Sea region. About a third of the ensembles dig a deep trough in the western US over the first half of next week and slowly push it eastward with a strong storm forming in the Plains and a significant warm up out ahead of it and a rain storm by Thursday. This solution would harbor much of the energy within the trough and keep the first half of the week dry.
Another third break off a weak impulse away from the trough early in the week and races it eastward in the zonal flow ahead of the main trough which arrives later in the week. In this scenario the first impulse reaches us with residual cold air leftover from this weekend's cold frontal passage bringing a period of mainly light, showery precipitation with a transition zone draped somewhere across the region. Then the main trough pulls through, likely with low pressure passing through the Great Lakes. Though, with some cold air still in place there will be some snow and ice on the front end with a changeover to rain for most.
The last set of models are all over the map with a couple showing the downstream trough more broad, with more of a dominant polar jet and energy arrives in shortwave clipper-like disturbances. The other couple show a split jet pattern with a clipper arriving early in the week then followed by a more significant system of Pacific origin which should take an interesting track. By interesting I mean probably somewhere up the coastal plain; not offshore but not west of the Appalachians. Somewhere in between that should give the North Country good snows but rain along the coast.
The block with the expected -NAO in week two looks to set up east of Greenland. So depending on how much energy comes out of that western trough (and in what stages) as it moves off the coast will determine our pattern. Big push of energy will pull the polar vortex toward eastern North America and keep us cold for the second half of week two. A weaker push of energy, or a series of weaker storms and clippers will keep the vortex centered toward central Canada and strong ridging will develop off the Southeast Coast, pushing another mild spell north for the second half of week two.
I'm hedging toward the bigger push of energy from the Pacific/Western trough next week. The MJO will be moving toward phase 8/1 by that time (favorable for eastern NOAM troughing). And for the first time in about a year there's been a swing toward higher atmospheric angular momentum. The GWO will circle into phase 5 this week for the first time in I can't remember when. This trend toward higher atmospheric angular momentum will bring a pattern of storminess to the US. Depending on how long it lasts it could certainly be a seasonal trend and something to keep an eye on. Should we really start to swing into a period of higher atmospheric angular momentum we could be heading into a very cold and stormy December country-wide...
Now on to cleaning up the paths in the woods.
Hope everyone has a wonderful holiday!
Have a very Happy Thanksgiving
I am thankful for this blog, and your presence here again.
I may be in and out this week. My brother-in-law died last week (pancreatic cancer...age 63); it's a rough one.
But coming here and finding your new post was balm!
Some of us may see the Aurora Borealis after midnight tonight and/or late evening tomorrow night.
http://www.softservenews.com/Thanksgiving_Day_Nor thern_Lights_Show_Possible.html
See also:
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmer ica/2012/11/22
Your blogging is on my list of "things to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving", and I'll hope for continuing blogs. You're the best!
http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronomy/auroramax/ hd-480.asp
This morning Ally was rushed to the hospital in the back of an ambulance. Just before eating breakfast Ally went limp and was unresponsive. She was spending the night with Grammie and Grampa, so they called 911 and the ambulance was at their house quickly. They remembered when Ally was unresponsive with us over a year ago, so they thought to make the EMTs check her blood sugar right away. It was 39. The paramedics pulled into the driveway soon after that and transferred her over to them. They gave her an IV and a big dose of dextrose. By the time they were off Grammie and Grampa's road Ally was coming around.
She ended up spending around 2 hours in the ER (her shortest time in the ER ever). The ER doctor called up to DHMC (He was very impressed with Ally's oncologist!) and we will need to call the endocrinologist tomorrow and set up an appointment.
Ally is doing fine now, and I think Grammie and Grampa are going to be okay too...she scared them something fierce. They did everything right, and we have a plan for her next sleep over.
Hopefully the rest of the month will be less dramatic. I will be sure to update after our endo appointment and when I know more about the procedure to take out Ally's port.
I am. I bought them two years ago...then forgot to have my Summer tires put back on! LOL! So now I get to do it again already.
Well, I didn't go. I was packing up my things, to head out the door, when my husband called. He had left for work (a half hour drive) an hour before and was sitting on the interstate at a standstill. It took him another hour to get to work. Our 20% chance of snow ("a few flurries" said the TV weather forecaster last night) turned into a three hour snow squall that coated all the roads with black ice. Moreover, no sand or salt trucks had been sent ahead of it, so even the folks with snow tires and studs couldn't get up a simple hill on the interstate, let alone navigate back roads.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201211 26/NEWS/311260011/Police-Parts-89-blocked-due-blac k-ice-car-crashes?odyssey=tab|topnews|img|FRONTPAG E
My husband was in that traffic. This must have been after the police car parted the traffic to make way for the salt truck.
Wow! The photo I first posted has changed at the site!
Road Crews Caught Off Guard
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201211 26/NEWS/311260011/Road-crew-drivers-caught-off-gua rd-first-snow?odyssey=nav|head
Yet the question remains:
What was so unusual about this storm system that forecasters were still saying at 3:40am "20% chance of a few flurries", but the reality was 100% chance of an inch of snowy wetness that turned instantly to black ice? A trooper said it was as if the whole interstate turned to ice at once. Why? And why wasn't it foreseen? Ideas?
ONE HALF INCH.
We have over 2" @ 10:15am and steady snowing! :D
We were told to expect and inch or two and maybe up to three inches at the higher elevations.
Well, we have 6+" so far, and I'm not even at the highest elevations!
Woke up to this message from my daughter in Tokyo on a business trip:
Hello family -- when you wake up in the morning and see the 7.3 earthquake and tsunami warning reports -- we are fine!
Best use of Facebook ever!!
... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to
7 am EST Monday...
The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for mixed wintry precipitation... which is in
effect from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST Monday.
* Locations... Champlain Valley west into the Saint Lawrence valley
and Adirondacks of northern New York.
* Hazard types... snow... sleet and freezing rain.
* Accumulations... snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches.
Ice accumulation a trace up to a tenth of an inch... especially
in northern New York.
* Timing... late evening Sunday through early Monday morning.
* Impacts... slick roadways due to snow and sleet. Some power lines
and small branches may come down in areas away from the
Champlain Valley.
* Winds... southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* Temperatures... lows around 30... rising above freezing during
Monday morning.
* Visibilities... 1 mile or less at times in snow and sleet.
This must be Vermont! :-D
Sooo, what are my chances of "arriving alive" if I attempt to drive home from Maine on Sunday? Some areas have gone from 20% chance of precip to 50% chance. Does anyone know HOW MUCH precip to expect?
Thank-you, goofy. I hadn't seen a word about what to expect for accumulations. I'm not so much worried about us (we will stop if it gets bad) as our son and his pregnant wife. At least they have a (albeit very old) Subaru.
Not now! Verizon has the entire interstate covered, and I have wifi from anywhere, so we're in MUCH better shape than in the old days. ;-)
Thanks, though! Hoping to make it home before the ice pellets get bad, on Sunday. Heh.
In VT, an SUV was upsidedown in the median, at mile marker 17.
35 mph most of the way up I-89. =Whew!=
And here comes round two...which sounds like exactly the same weather. This time, though, we're mostly HOME!
=Whew!=
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. :)
Best wishes to all.
Listener, how's Ally doing?
She is doing really well!!!! :-D
Look who visited my feeders on Christmas Day! :-D
Any thoughts on the storm making its way to New England?
Any chance I'll actually see the predicted 10" to 18" here?
Thanks LT! So far, so good! :-D
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to one and all!
Hope all is well.
Happy New Year Sully and all :
HAPPY ❄ NEW ❄ YEAR ❄ SNOW ❄ LOVERS!
❄ ❄ ❄ .❄ . ❄ . ❄. ❄ ❄ ❄ .❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄
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