Lovely weather to continue through Thanksgiving

By: sullivanweather , 2:37 PM GMT on November 18, 2012

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

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East Coast IR satellite image.


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Synopsis

Stunning late-autumn weather will continue right through the Thanksgiving holiday for most locales across the Northeast thanks to a sprawling high pressure ridge axis draped across eastern North America. Aside from thin high cloudiness due to the passage of a couple very weak ripples in the jet, skies will tend to be mostly sunny right through Thanksgiving with temperatures running several degrees above seasonal norms. A significant cold frontal passage will take place Black Friday which should bring the coldest weather of the season in its wake and perhaps the first significant lake effect event for the Snow Belt region over the weekend. As we head into the last week of November a strong omega ridge is forecast to develop at high latitudes over the Dateline and slowly retrograde toward eastern Siberia. This pattern should draw down a significant chunk of arctic air building over Alaska and Northwestern Canada into the Rocky Mountain region as downstream troughing digs in the western United States, spawning a strong winter storm over the Plains by midweek. Ahead of this trough broad southwesterly flow should develop across the eastern half of the country, bringing a warming trend to the Northeast region for the first half of the week. However, the second half of the week looks stormy as the Plains storm moves in.


Short-term

Mostly sunny skies and frosty lawns will greet Northeast residents this Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin the day in the 20's across much of the interior with mainly 30's along the coastal plain. The urban centers are in the low 40's, with Philadelphia checking in at 41°F for the start of the Philadelphia marathon this morning. Sunny skies will quickly warm temperatures through the morning into the early afternoon, with low to mid 50's expected for highs along the coastal plain up to southern New England, west of the Appalachians and across the Great Lakes plain and most interior valleys. At elevations higher than 1000' temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 40's. High clouds will start to spread across southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey during the afternoon as low pressure develops off the coast. Mainly clear skies, dry air, and light winds will continue through this evening across the interior allowing temperatures to plummet once again into the 20's overnight. Along the coastal plain, however, a thickening layer of high clouds will slow the temperature fall some with lows in the upper 30's to low 40's.
Not much in the way of changes for Monday with sunny skies continuing to reign across the interior and high clouds persisting along the coast to start the day. A weak disturbance will approach from the west during the afternoon spreading high cloudiness into the interior as well but temperatures will once again reach into the low to mid 50's along the coastal plain, lake plain and interior valleys with 40's at higher elevations across the interior. High clouds continue to move into the region Monday night helping to keep temperatures several degrees warmer than nights prior. Expect lows in the upper 20's to low 30's across the interior with upper 30's to low 40's along the coastal plain.



Mid-term

More in the way of cloud cover over the region on Tuesday as the weak upper trough passes trough. This will keep temperatures a bit lower than today or Monday but they will still run several degrees above normal for latter November. The weak trough will make its way off the coast Tuesday night with thinning clouds as the night progresses. Low temperatures will once again fall into the 20's across most of the interior with upper 30's to low 40's for the coastal plain.
Clouds will continue to abate on Wednesday for most locales as sunny skies return for the biggest travel day of the year. The lone exception will be along the immediate coasts of southern New England to Long Island where a piece of energy rotating around the offshore low pressure will keep skies mostly cloudy. Otherwise it will be a splendid day with temperatures approaching 60°F west of the Appalachians around Pittsburgh. Highs in the 50's will be seen along the coastal plain and much of the interior aside from central/northern New England. These highs will be about 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Thanksgiving is likely to be a carbon copy of Wednesday, though with the system offshore finally pulling away all areas should see mostly sunny skies. With the clear skies and light winds expected nighttime temperature should fall close to normal Wednesday night but remain several degrees warmer than average Thursday night as moisture increases over the region ahead of an approaching trough.



Long-term

Our run of fabulous weather will be coming to an end after Friday as a potent but moisture-starved shortwave trough moves into the region from the Great Lakes. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough on Friday will pump one final push of fairly warm air into the Northeast, with highs expected to climb into the low 60's for many of the lower elevation areas outside of central/northern New England and even here temperatures should reach into the 50's. By the afternoon hours a strong cold front associated with this trough will reach the western half of the region. Though moisture is lacking, fairly strong dynamics will force a narrow line of showers along this boundary and there even cloud be a rumble of thunder along the I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Syracuse on south to north-central Pennsylvania. The core of the mid/upper disturbance will curl north into Canada, leaving little forcing for any precipitation east of the Appalachians down to the southern coastal plain. But as the front pulls offshore it will start to draw Atlantic moisture into eastern New England Friday night, bringing a steadier rainfall to eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine which should end as snow showers away from the coast behind the front. As low pressure wraps up over eastern Canada and much colder air flows into the Northeast, the cold cyclonic flow will promote the development of lake effect snows downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. Trajectory at this time appears to be between 300-310° which should favor the Syracuse region and areas to the southeast of there off Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie areas southwest of Buffalo and down the spine of the Alleghenies to the Laurel Highlands will be favored although a few streamers off Georgian Bay may make their down into the Niagara Frontier and the Buffalo region. Flow will start to turn anti-cyclonic by Sunday which should shut down the lake effect machine to close out the weekend. The coldest air of the season for the Northeast by far will arrive this weekend. Temperatures may not climb above freezing for much of the higher terrain of the Northeast and areas within the lake effect snow bands. Elsewhere across the interior high temperatures will be in the 30's with upper teens to low 20's at night. Along the coastal plain highs should make it to the low 40's with upper 20's to low 30's at night. A brisk wind Saturday and Saturday night will add an extra bite to the air and wind chills could drop into the single digits across the interior Saturday night.




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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.

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Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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57. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
sullivanweather has created a new entry.
Sully is super busy. I miss him, but hold out hope for an occasional blog post, as he is able. :-)

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
I'm just wondering when the Weather Channel took over WU if that is when Sully disappeared.....
Maybe he knew it was time to get out of Dodge...
I know he had been missing before but things are changing and not for the better.

Now rather than the reports from the NWS we get some garbage about NEMO??? Really????
The only people who have called the storm Nemo are the folks at TWC who have acquired WU, so now do we get this rot on here??
Any thoughts......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Sully,
Was hoping to get your thoughts on this storm, same as the others... Its just not same without you. Hope you are well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Sully, hope you are well and are keeping "tabs" on this approaching storm. Trust you are busy, but if you check in here, if you could lend any insight into this potential Blizzard, it would be MOST appreciated. Take care, all the best,LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Ditto #51 --

I came by this morning and here I am again -- with the exact same thoughts and questions as Zotty.
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51. zotty
8:24 PM GMT on February 06, 2013
Hey Sully- are you around? How are you doing? Any thoughts on Friday's storm? I hope all is well!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 739
50. goofyrider
3:10 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Looks like 2-3 in headed your way Wed into Thurs.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
49. listenerVT
5:36 AM GMT on January 01, 2013
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
48. listenerVT
4:52 AM GMT on January 01, 2013
❄ . ❄ .❄ ❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄. ❄ ❄ ❄ .❄ . ❄ . ❄. ❄ ❄ ❄ .❄
HAPPY ❄ NEW ❄ YEAR ❄ SNOW ❄ LOVERS!
❄ ❄ ❄ .❄ . ❄ . ❄. ❄ ❄ ❄ .❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄ ❄ . ❄
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
47. listenerVT
4:51 AM GMT on January 01, 2013
Hoping it's all HAPPY, Sully!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
46. goofyrider
2:03 AM GMT on January 01, 2013


Happy New Year Sully and all :
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45. originalLT
6:35 PM GMT on December 31, 2012
Happy and healthy New Year to you and your family, Sully.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
44. listenerVT
5:40 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Sure missing you during this latest storm, Sully.

Hope all is well.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
43. listenerVT
7:53 AM GMT on December 26, 2012
Merry Christmas, Sully!
Look who visited my feeders on Christmas Day! :-D


Any thoughts on the storm making its way to New England?
Any chance I'll actually see the predicted 10" to 18" here?


Thanks LT! So far, so good! :-D

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to one and all!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
42. originalLT
2:54 AM GMT on December 26, 2012
Good news Listener! Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you and yours!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
41. listenerVT
2:51 AM GMT on December 26, 2012
Quoting Ylee:
Merry Christmas, everybody!

Listener, how's Ally doing?


She is doing really well!!!! :-D
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
40. originalLT
2:35 AM GMT on December 26, 2012
Sully, if you are checking your blog, do you think your area might be hit hard with snow this Wed. night? or will the snow be further north and west of you?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
39. Ylee
9:51 AM GMT on December 25, 2012
Merry Christmas, everybody!

Listener, how's Ally doing?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15594
38. originalLT
1:54 AM GMT on December 25, 2012
Wishing you and your family a Merry Christmas, and a happy and healthy New Year, Sully. PS. Snowing here in Stamford CT now, 33F, sticking on grassy surfaces. Maybe we'll get 1-2" if it doesn't turn to rain. Can see the back edge of the precip. in Eastern Pa. all ready, so I guess it will end by 3-4 AM, or so.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
37. goofyrider
10:43 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
Christmas Eve in SL: Merry Christmas Sully. We look to be on the warm side for the approaching squall as well as the low on the 27th.

Best wishes to all.
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36. Barefootontherocks
5:51 PM GMT on December 23, 2012
Hi, sully.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. :)


Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
35. listenerVT
5:19 AM GMT on December 23, 2012
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34. listenerVT
1:26 AM GMT on December 18, 2012
All our peeps got home safely last night.

And here comes round two...which sounds like exactly the same weather. This time, though, we're mostly HOME!

=Whew!=
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
33. listenerVT
11:44 PM GMT on December 16, 2012
Home!

In VT, an SUV was upsidedown in the median, at mile marker 17.

35 mph most of the way up I-89. =Whew!=
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
32. listenerVT
8:24 PM GMT on December 16, 2012
Well, we made it from Kennebunk to I-89N, and so far we have skidded with anti-lock brakes through a red light, passed a fender bender and saw a serious traffic backup at the intersection of I-93 & I-89. The snow witches give the road a lava lamp effect, and black ice is definitely an issue. If anyone has info about roadways in VT, please post.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
31. listenerVT
7:39 AM GMT on December 15, 2012
Quoting goofyrider:
remember cell cover spotty that route in NH & VT


Not now! Verizon has the entire interstate covered, and I have wifi from anywhere, so we're in MUCH better shape than in the old days. ;-)

Thanks, though! Hoping to make it home before the ice pellets get bad, on Sunday. Heh.
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30. goofyrider
2:08 AM GMT on December 15, 2012
remember cell cover spotty that route in NH & VT
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
29. listenerVT
1:54 AM GMT on December 15, 2012
Quoting goofyrider:
Know = estimate. WRF looks like snow 1-4 in across NYS , some east of your lake C, some across n NH and north of central Maine. I 95 to I 93 NH and Vermont and up 91. WU says snow all the way ? Snow without accumulation? Don't like that at night. Hey it gets bad pull over get in sleeping bag and wait for plows.


Thank-you, goofy. I hadn't seen a word about what to expect for accumulations. I'm not so much worried about us (we will stop if it gets bad) as our son and his pregnant wife. At least they have a (albeit very old) Subaru.
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28. goofyrider
2:25 PM GMT on December 14, 2012
Know = estimate. WRF looks like snow 1-4 in across NYS , some east of your lake C, some across n NH and north of central Maine. I 95 to I 93 NH and Vermont and up 91. WU says snow all the way ? Snow without accumulation? Don't like that at night. Hey it gets bad pull over get in sleeping bag and wait for plows.
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27. listenerVT
3:26 AM GMT on December 14, 2012

Sooo, what are my chances of "arriving alive" if I attempt to drive home from Maine on Sunday? Some areas have gone from 20% chance of precip to 50% chance. Does anyone know HOW MUCH precip to expect?
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26. listenerVT
5:39 PM GMT on December 12, 2012
Currently we have snowflakes with 0% chance of precipitation!
This must be Vermont! :-D
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25. listenerVT
9:02 AM GMT on December 09, 2012
I sure wish this was going to be all snow!


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to
7 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for mixed wintry precipitation... which is in
effect from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST Monday.

* Locations... Champlain Valley west into the Saint Lawrence valley
and Adirondacks of northern New York.

* Hazard types... snow... sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches.
Ice accumulation a trace up to a tenth of an inch... especially
in northern New York.

* Timing... late evening Sunday through early Monday morning.

* Impacts... slick roadways due to snow and sleet. Some power lines
and small branches may come down in areas away from the
Champlain Valley.

* Winds... southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Temperatures... lows around 30... rising above freezing during
Monday morning.

* Visibilities... 1 mile or less at times in snow and sleet.
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24. listenerVT
12:20 AM GMT on December 08, 2012
I really need to know about the 15th-16th as my whole family is converging in SW Maine for our Christmas gathering! Will there be any snow or (especially!) ice to contend with??

Woke up to this message from my daughter in Tokyo on a business trip:
Hello family -- when you wake up in the morning and see the 7.3 earthquake and tsunami warning reports -- we are fine!
Best use of Facebook ever!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
23. originalLT
5:45 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Yes, h2oskt, there does appear to be something, a week from this Friday, but the GFS is showing it as a rain event for most of the East coast. At least right now anyways, it's a long way off, things can change.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
22. h2oskt
1:28 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
There seems to be something in the models for late next week, or am I just dreaming?
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 54
21. listenerVT
5:48 AM GMT on November 30, 2012
It was similar here, libertygirl!

We were told to expect and inch or two and maybe up to three inches at the higher elevations.

Well, we have 6+" so far, and I'm not even at the highest elevations!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
20. libertygirl
3:19 PM GMT on November 27, 2012
YaY! We got a "Short Term Forecast"! Saying:THROUGH NOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...EAST TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY REGION AND EXTEND INTO THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
ONE HALF INCH.

We have over 2" @ 10:15am and steady snowing! :D
Member Since: December 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
19. libertygirl
1:44 PM GMT on November 27, 2012
As usual, the snow predictions/reports/warnings are null and void and way off for our area here in Liberty, Sullivan County. It started snowing this a.m. @ 5:30 and now @ 8:30 in just three hours we have surpassed the predicted "near 1" with near 2" accumulation so far and currently stated "light snow mist" is actually looking like 1" per hour. Welcome to Sullivan County!! The "secret" snow place of NY; where NOAA does not dare to go! LOL It's too far North of Orange County! LOL They are blocked with a Special Weather Statement and we are just sitting here watching the snow pile up! FUN! :)
Member Since: December 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
18. listenerVT
4:49 AM GMT on November 27, 2012
So, Sully, here's an intriguing question for you:

Road Crews Caught Off Guard

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201211 26/NEWS/311260011/Road-crew-drivers-caught-off-gua rd-first-snow?odyssey=nav|head


Yet the question remains:
What was so unusual about this storm system that forecasters were still saying at 3:40am "20% chance of a few flurries", but the reality was 100% chance of an inch of snowy wetness that turned instantly to black ice? A trooper said it was as if the whole interstate turned to ice at once. Why? And why wasn't it foreseen? Ideas?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
17. listenerVT
6:33 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting goofyrider:
Morning all. Good news about Ally. Hey LVT aren't you worth new snows.


I am. I bought them two years ago...then forgot to have my Summer tires put back on! LOL! So now I get to do it again already.


Well, I didn't go. I was packing up my things, to head out the door, when my husband called. He had left for work (a half hour drive) an hour before and was sitting on the interstate at a standstill. It took him another hour to get to work. Our 20% chance of snow ("a few flurries" said the TV weather forecaster last night) turned into a three hour snow squall that coated all the roads with black ice. Moreover, no sand or salt trucks had been sent ahead of it, so even the folks with snow tires and studs couldn't get up a simple hill on the interstate, let alone navigate back roads.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201211 26/NEWS/311260011/Police-Parts-89-blocked-due-blac k-ice-car-crashes?odyssey=tab|topnews|img|FRONTPAG E

My husband was in that traffic. This must have been after the police car parted the traffic to make way for the salt truck.
Wow! The photo I first posted has changed at the site!
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16. goofyrider
2:46 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Morning all. Good news about Ally. Hey LVT aren't you worth new snows.
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15. listenerVT
1:34 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
It's snowing here to beat the band, and I'm leading a meeting in Concord, NH at noon. Let's hope my really old snow tires hold up.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
14. listenerVT
7:27 PM GMT on November 25, 2012
Written 17 minutes ago by Ally's Mom...

This morning Ally was rushed to the hospital in the back of an ambulance. Just before eating breakfast Ally went limp and was unresponsive. She was spending the night with Grammie and Grampa, so they called 911 and the ambulance was at their house quickly. They remembered when Ally was unresponsive with us over a year ago, so they thought to make the EMTs check her blood sugar right away. It was 39. The paramedics pulled into the driveway soon after that and transferred her over to them. They gave her an IV and a big dose of dextrose. By the time they were off Grammie and Grampa's road Ally was coming around.

She ended up spending around 2 hours in the ER (her shortest time in the ER ever). The ER doctor called up to DHMC (He was very impressed with Ally's oncologist!) and we will need to call the endocrinologist tomorrow and set up an appointment.
Ally is doing fine now, and I think Grammie and Grampa are going to be okay too...she scared them something fierce. They did everything right, and we have a plan for her next sleep over.

Hopefully the rest of the month will be less dramatic. I will be sure to update after our endo appointment and when I know more about the procedure to take out Ally's port.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5501
13. listenerVT
10:46 PM GMT on November 24, 2012
We got a dusting today...it finally began to stick on the dirt areas of the gardens, just before nightfall.
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12. listenerVT
5:14 AM GMT on November 23, 2012
Live Aurora Borealis here:

http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronomy/auroramax/ hd-480.asp
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11. NumberWise
4:48 AM GMT on November 23, 2012
Sully, I do appreciate your forecasts. The daily forecasts continue to jump around so much that they're nearly useless, but your overall evaluation of weather processes is ever so useful.

Your blogging is on my list of "things to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving", and I'll hope for continuing blogs. You're the best!
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1700
10. listenerVT
2:41 AM GMT on November 23, 2012
*** Happy Thanksgiving! ***

Some of us may see the Aurora Borealis after midnight tonight and/or late evening tomorrow night.
http://www.softservenews.com/Thanksgiving_Day_Nor thern_Lights_Show_Possible.html

See also:
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmer ica/2012/11/22
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9. listenerVT
2:40 AM GMT on November 23, 2012
Thanks so much Shovlr! ♥
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8. TheShovler3
6:39 AM GMT on November 20, 2012
Listener, very sorry for your loss. You'll be in my thoughts and prayers! Stay strong!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
7. listenerVT
11:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
Thanks, Sully! An excellent read as always.

I am thankful for this blog, and your presence here again.

I may be in and out this week. My brother-in-law died last week (pancreatic cancer...age 63); it's a rough one.

But coming here and finding your new post was balm!
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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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