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Last Updated: 2:58 AM GMT on November 22, 2009 — Last Comment: 2:54 AM GMT on November 20, 2009

	== Revised Winter Predictions Coming Tomorrow == Mountain Frost Advisories ==

Posted by: synthman19872003, 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2009

Frost advisories have been issued for the mountains of western NC. Areas that will be threatened by frost overnight extend from Yancey County northward into Virginia...

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== Local and Regional Radars ==
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== Other NEXRAD Products ==
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Rainfall Totals | Hourly Rainfall Totals | Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity | Vertically Integrated Liquid | Echo Tops

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== Triad Area Forecast ==
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== Other Useful Links ==
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-- Regional Visible Satellite Loop --

-- National Hurricane Center --

-- Storm Prediction Center --

-- Climate Prediction Center --

-- CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts --

-- Hydrometeorological Prediction Center --

-- NC Drought Monitor --

-- SC Drought Monitor --

-- Past Weather Events in NC --

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== The 26th Annual Lexington BBQ Festival is Less Than a Month Away!!! ==
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== Autumn Colors ==
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This map shows the progression of peak Autumn colors across the continental US. As you can see, areas in the Rockies, Upper Midwest, and northern New England are some of the first areas to see colors at their peak, then as the weeks go by, areas further south see their peak colors, all the way down towards the Deep South by early to mid November. Typically by Thanksgiving, both the North and South for the most part have passed their peak, and then the colors to look for in nature are... well... these two: brown and white ;)

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== Effects of El-Nino in Winter ==
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Perhaps the most influential variable in forecasting and predicting the severity of this upcoming Winter season is El-Nino, which is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe (as defined by NOAA). According to the latest outlook, it appears that El-Nino will be intensifying through Autumn and should prevail through most of the Winter months. Of course, many other variables come into play when forecasting Winter weather, and every season is different, but El-Nino Winters on average are generally cooler and snowier in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the Northeast and Midwest are typically warmer and drier.

Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).

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== My Winter 2009-2010 Forecast for the Eastern CONUS (primarily the states east of the Mississippi) ==
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I have made some changes to my Winter weather outlook, and will post it in the next blog entry (Oct 1). Also, I will add a new map showing my total snowfall forecast for NC and surrounding areas.

(*** click on the maps to view them in detail ***)

Precipitation:
I am expecting a fairly strong flow of storms out of the Gulf of Mexico, and coupled with strong CAD east of the central and southern Appalachians, expect regular occurrences of snow and ice from Atlanta to Boston throughout the season, especially in January, February, and early March. Areas just to the west of the Appalachians should expect near normal Winter weather activity throughout the entire season. However, the Midwest/Great Lakes region will have less than normal Winter weather activity, and even though I do predict there will be slightly above normal LES during the first half of the season (when ENSO is less pronounced), the second half of Winter will be slightly dry, and even drier in the Upper Midwest.

Temperature:
Temperatures across the Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and southern Florida will be slightly cooler than average, and much cooler temperatures will be felt in the Deep South and the Southeast coastline. However, for the first half of Winter, the Southeast will have slightly above normal temperatures. The Northeast and Ohio River valley will see near normal temperatures throughout the Winter months, while the Upper Great Lakes region will be warmer than average for most of the season, with the exception of a short period of cooler temperatures during the first half of Winter.

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== Persimmon Seeds to Help Predict Type of Winter ==
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In this world full of high-tech weather models and advanced forecasting techniques, sometimes it is nice to also approach weather forecasting from a more natural perspective. I admit, going by signs in nature alone is not exactly the best and most accurate way to forecast the weather, but it is still wise to stop and take a look at what mother nature is trying to tell us.

There is an old folklore that says that the seeds of a Persimmon can determine what kind of Winter we will have. To do this, you take some persimmons (ones that have already fell to the ground), take the seeds out of them, slice the seeds in half, and observe the shape inside of the seeds. You should see either a spoon, fork, or knife.

Here is what you should expect your Winter to be like, depending on which shapes you see:

Spoon = Cold and Snowy
Fork = Mild and Dry
Knife = VERY Cold and Icy

It's best that you cut open at least 10 seeds, so that you can get a better overall sample of your results.

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What I've decided to do is to cut open Persimmon seeds once a week (every Sunday) and post my results here. There are many Persimmon trees around our house, so I will try to get samples from different ones.

-- September 6, 2009 --

I believe most of these seeds are not totally mature yet, so most of them don't even show a definite shape yet, only the utensil handles are visible. However, there are 3 out of 10 that definitely show a complete utensil shape. Numbers 4 and 6 both show a spoon, while number 7 shows a knife. As far as I can tell, the last 3 very faintly show knives. I see no forks in any of them. According to this sample, our Winter should be very cold, with more ice than snow.

-- September 13, 2009 --

Well, this is a very tough one to figure out! Many of these seeds are once again not totally mature yet, and when I tried to cut into them, they would not cooperate well at all. From what I can tell, numbers 2, 3, 4, and 6 are spoons, numbers 8 and 10 are knives, and number 7 looks like either a fork or knife, but I'm going with fork (maybe a steak fork? LOL). Numbers 1, 5, and 9 are just too hard for me to figure out. According to this sample, our Winter should be cold, with more snow than ice (opposite from last week's sample), with perhaps a warm and dry spell sometime during the season.

-- September 20, 2009 --

These were a bit easier to cut into than last week's seeds, but many of these are still not showing any definite shape inside. In fact, only two of them show a definite utensil shape, and those two are numbers 5 (which shows a spoon) and 6 (which shows a knife). Number 1 also faintly resembles a spoon. Looking at number 7 up close, it appears that where the top half of the utensil would be located, the handle is off center of that, so I'll go ahead and declare number 7 as a knife, since that's how a knife is generally shaped. Numbers 3, 9, (perhaps 10 as well?) appear to be knifes also, and the rest are just too hard for me to determine at this point. According to this sample, our Winter should be very cold, with MUCH more ice than snow.

-- September 27, 2009 --

As you can see, these seeds were pretty easy to cut into, unlike the previous couple of batches. Still, there are a few that don't show a whole utensil shape. Numbers 1, 2, 5, and 6 look like knives, even though it's kind of hard to tell from looking at this picture. I will still go ahead and declare these as knives, along with number 10. Numbers 3 and 9 look like forks, while 4 and 7 look like spoons. Number 8 looks a bit strange to me, and I can't really figure out if it is a spoon or knife. I think I'll go with spoon as my final answer. According to this sample, our Winter should be very cold, but with warm spells throughout the season, with more ice than snow, and moisture may be limited at times.

Next Sample Coming October 4, 2009... Stay Tuned!!!

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101. synthman19872003 4:03 AM GMT on October 01, 2009
Quoting upweatherdog: I'm going to try to issue my winter outlook in the next few days, and it may surprise some of you. Looking forward to it! I probably won't be so surprised, as long as you don't predict a massive blizzard for Florida or something LOL! ... and congrats UPW, you made the 100th comment ;) OK, I'm finished. I will be posting the new blog here shortly...

102. upweatherdog 4:20 AM GMT on October 01, 2009
The surprise comes form looking at the years where the northeast gets big snowstorms. In those years, high pressure sat over the Ohio valley, which resulted in dry conditions, with a secondary storm track from the southern Plains to the northern Great Lakes.

103. Flyinghi 11:14 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Hey Matt!! I really like this way of telling what your weather will be!! Very Interesting!!! I'll check every Monday to see what the seeds are showing!!! Thanks for the input!! Jill

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