U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 261910 
Storm Prediction Center ac 261908 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0108 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 

Valid 262000z - 271200z 

..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a couple of thunderstorms embedded within a more general area of 
precipitation are possible this afternoon from southeastern New York 
into southern New England. However...coverage of any such activity 
will remain sparse. 


A couple of lightning strikes remain possible this afternoon over 
southern New England where a weak but shallow unstable layer aloft 
will develop northward in association with strong warm advection around 
700 mb. Coverage of any additional lightning activity is expected to 
remain very limited. 

.Dial.. 11/26/2014 

Previous discussion... /issued 1017 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/ 

A surface cyclone near the NC Outer Banks will deepen and move north-northeastward 
to just off the southeast New England coast tonight...as a shortwave trough 
ejects northeastward from the southern Appalachians. Isolated thunderstorms will 
be possible for the next couple of hours across eastern NC/southeast Virginia with 
lingering buoyancy /rooted above the surface/ near the low. Farther 
S...the thunderstorm risk appears to be ending in S Florida with cold 
frontal passage. Otherwise...a shortwave trough will weaken as it 
approaches the Pacific northwest coast and the mean ridge position. 

Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 262100 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 262059 

Mesoscale discussion 1957 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0259 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 

Areas affected...southern and downeast Maine...northern New Hampshire and Vermont 

Concerning...heavy snow 

Valid 262059z - 270300z 

Summary...heavy snowfall continues to expand northeastward into northern portions 
of New England. Rates initially of 1-2 inch per hour are likely...and 
may locally exceed 2 inches per hour near the coast after 23z. 

Discussion...surface observations from 20z indicate rapid cooling of 
temperatures over the past 3 hours owing to wet-bulb effects...now 
sufficient to support snowfall over most of the region. Broad zone 
of low-midlevel convergence Colorado-located with a plume of seasonably 
moist air /estimated at 0.7-0.8 inch near the coast/ continues to 
maintain a swath of moderate to locally heavy snowfall extending 
from the middle-Atlantic region northeastward into New England. Rates are 
expected to increase further this evening...as upstream midlevel 
wave pivots northeastward with a corresponding increase in low-midlevel flow 
and associated isentropic uplift occurring. 2-3 inches per hour may 
become common during the 23z-03z time period across coastal portions 
of Maine. Long-duration nature of the event coupled with a period of 
intense snowfall rates should result in a significant heavy snow 
event this evening and overnight. 

.Rogers.. 11/26/2014 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 44736703 44106877 43317027 43277057 43597202 44157324 
44887263 44957142 45686900 45946779 45746779 45456732